Projecting College Football Playoff top 25 rankings for Week 11: Where will CFP committee place Texas, Notre Dame?

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Projecting College Football Playoff top 25 rankings for Week 11: Where will CFP committee place Texas, Notre Dame?  image

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Tuesday, and it's important to know the difference between those and the other polls. 

This isn't the AP Poll. There will be a few differences from the College Football Playoff committee – which will provide the first hints toward the second installment of the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

That means a college football version of Catchphrase. Strength of record. Strength of schedule. Strength of victory. Good losses. Bad losses. Eye test. Blank canvas. Body of work. 

It's a November tradition. Each week, AllSportsPeople will project what those rankings will be when the committee shows their first top 25.

MORE: Projecting the College Football Playoff field after Week 10

When are the first College Football Playoff rankings? 

The first set of CFP rankings will be unveiled on Tuesday at 8 p.m. On ESPN's "College Football Top 25" show. This is the first of five rankings shows ahead of the announcement of the 12-team CFP field on Dec. 7. A look at the dates and times for the weekly rankings: 

  • Tuesday, Nov. 4: 8 p.m. 
  • Tuesday, Nov. 11: 7 p.m.
  • Tuesday, Nov. 18: 8:30 p.m.
  • Tuesday, Nov. 25: 7 p.m. 
  • Tuesday, Dec. 2: 7 p.m. 
  • Sunday, Dec. 7: 12 p.m. 

MORE: Latest AP, Coaches Top 25 polls

Projected College Football Playoff top 25 rankings for Week 11 

25. Memphis (8-1) 

The committee tends to undervalue Group of 5 teams, but the Tigers have victories against USF and Arkansas. It's enough to crack the field. If not Memphis, this is where Pitt or Tennessee could end up. 

24. Iowa (6-2) 

The Hawkeyes don't have a strong win, but they lost to Iowa State and Indiana by a combined total of eight points. That could resonate ahead of the matchup against Oregon.

23. Cincinnati (7-2) 

The Bearcats are coming off a 45-14 loss at Utah, so recency bias could be in play. Cincinnati has one loss in Big 12 play, however, and that victory against Iowa State gives them the edge over the Hawkeyes.  

22. Washington (6-2) 

The Huskies have won three out of four, including an impressive 42-25 victory against Illinois on Oct. 25. Losses to Ohio State and Michigan don't hurt that much. 

21. Michigan (7-2) 

The Wolverines haven't beaten a ranked team and looked underwhelming in a 21-16 victory against Purdue in Week 10. Michigan did beat Washington, however, and they continue our run of Big Ten teams.

20. Missouri (6-2)  

The Tigers are the first of eight SEC teams in the rankings. Missouri hasn't beat a ranked team yet, but one-score losses to Vanderbilt and Alabama should not hurt too much. 

19. USC (6-2) 

USC is 1-2 against top-25 teams this season, and the 31-13 victory against Michigan on Oct. 11 is a useful tie-breaker. The Trojans lost to Notre Dame and Illinois. 

18. Utah (7-2) 

The Utes have two top-25 victories and are coming off an impressive victory against Cincinnati. The Utes, however, have limited room to move up because of losses to Texas Tech and BYU. 

17. Miami (6-2) 

The Hurricanes are ranked No. 18 in the AP Poll. How much will the committee value the victories against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida State against the losses to Louisville and SMU? 

MORE: Is Miami out of the running for a CFP berth?

16. Georgia Tech (8-1) 

How much will the 48-36 loss to NC State impact the Yellow Jackets' rankings? We have Georgia Tech as the lowest-ranked one-loss team.

15. Louisville (8-1) 

The Cardinals also are in hunt in the ACC, and the committee might like that 24-21 victory against Miami on Oct. 17. Louisville's lone loss – a 30-27 overtime miss against Virginia on Oct. 4 – does not hurt that bad. 

14. Vanderbilt (7-2) 

It's the playoff fringe for the Commodores, who have three victories against ranked teams (South Carolina, LSU, Missouri) and two close losses on the road (Alabama, Texas). We won't be surprised if Vanderbilt is ranked a touch higher. 

13. Virginia (8-1) 

Will the highest-ranked ACC team be in this spot? Virginia has the head-to-head victory against Louisville. The Cavaliers also beat Florida State 46-38 on Sept. 26 – when the Seminoles were ranked No. 8. 

12. Notre Dame (6-2) 

Who is ready to argue about the Irish? Notre Dame has one victory against a ranked team; a 34-24 victory against USC on Oct. 20. Notre Dame has won six straight games by double digits. 

11. Oklahoma (7-2) 

The Sooners have a 24-13 non-conference victory against Michigan on Sept. 6 and beat Auburn and Tennessee in conference play. The Tigers and Vols, however, likely will not be ranked in the CFP rankings.

MORE: How OU's upset of Vols shakes up SEC race

10. Texas (7-2) 

The committee typically values head to head, and the Longhorns beat Vanderbilt 34-31 on Nov. 1 and Oklahoma 23-6 on Oct. 11. Texas is 3-2 in one-score games, with the losses coming to Ohio State and Florida.

9. Texas Tech (8-1)  

The Red Raiders have beat one ranked team – Utah – and the loss to Arizona State might be forgiven considering quarterback Behren Morton did not play in that game. 

8. BYU (8-0) 

The Cougars also have a victory against Utah and have the chance to play at Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU was 8-0 last season in the first CFP rankings and was in the No. 9 spot. This is the right spot. 

7. Oregon (7-1) 

The Ducks' lone victory against a ranked team – the 30-24 overtime victory against Penn State on Sept. 27 – has not aged the way it should have. Oregon might slip down a spot from its AP ranking of No. 6 as a result. A home loss to Indiana might split the difference with Ole Miss. 

6. Ole Miss (8-1) 

The Rebels have victories against LSU and Oklahoma and a 43-35 loss to Georgia on Oct. 18 does not hurt the Rebels' playoff chances. They are one of four SEC teams in the top six of our rankings, which would be one more team than the initial rankings last season. 

Chauncey Bowens

5. Georgia (7-1) 

The Bulldogs lost 24-21 to Alabama on Sept. 27. Georgia has won four straight SEC contests since, and that includes the victory against Ole Miss. That should keep the Bulldogs in the top five. 

MORE: Key controversial replay goes in Georgia's favor vs. Florida

4. Alabama (7-1) 

Alabama is the only team in the top 25 with four victories against top-25 teams this season. That collection against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee could push the Crimson Tide up to No. 3 – which would be the made-for-TV drama. 

3. Texas A&M (8-0) 

We also could see the Aggies being pushed up to No. 2 given they have victories against Notre Dame and LSU. This is the respect given to the lone unbeaten team left in the SEC. 

2. Indiana (9-0) 

The Hoosiers lead the FBS with an average scoring margin of 31 points per game. Indiana continues to look the part under second-year coach Curt Cignetti, which should hold off the SEC powers for now. 

1. Ohio State (8-0) 

The defending national champions will start on top. The Buckeyes' best victory is the 14-7 season-opener against Texas. The Buckeyes allow 6.9 points per game – the only FBS team under double digits. Julian Sayin has FBS best marks in completion percentage (80.7%) and efficiency (197.1).

MORE: Ohio State's Big Three lights up stat sheet vs. Penn State

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