TL;DR
- * Miami's overtime loss to SMU jeopardizes their postseason prospects after two recent defeats.
- * Despite a 10-2 record, Miami faces exclusion from playoffs for a second consecutive year.
- * Miami's ACC championship hopes are diminished, falling to seventh place with tie-breaker disadvantages.
- * Miami is favored in remaining games, but wins may not impress playoff committees.
After a 26-20 overtime defeat to SMU on Saturday, Miami's postseason prospects are now in question following two losses in their last three games.
The Canes entered as 3.5-point favorites and Miami led 20-17 with 2:47 left. In front of its home crowd, SMU drove down the field and kicker Sam Keitner, who had just missed a 42-yarder earlier in the quarter, made a 38-yarder to tie it and send the game to overtime.
During Miami's overtime possession, Carson Beck's pass was intercepted, returning the ball to SMU.
SMU intercepts Miami’s Carson Beck in OT👀
— On3 (@On3sports) November 1, 2025
(via ESPN)
pic.twitter.com/3bFVO7zSRy
Following their 26-20 defeat, let's examine whether Miami still has a chance to reach the playoffs with two losses.
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Is Miami eliminated from playoff contention?
Despite a 10-2 record, Miami might find itself excluded. This would be the second straight year Miami would be one of the first teams out a second consecutive season. Miami now has two losses, both to unranked opponents in Louisville and SMU. While both squads boast commendable win-loss records, the Cardinals stand at 6-1, and the Mustangs improved to 6-3 following their recent win.
Miami's key advantage is their Week 1 victory against Notre Dame, a team that might also be considered for an at-large bid with a couple of defeats. The shine has faded somewhat on Miami's other notable victories this season, namely those against South Florida and Florida State.
Miami entered Saturday's game with a 46.4 percent chance to make the playoff per ESPN's FPI, so the Canes were already on shaky ground. Although the Canes' two losses to Louisville and SMU were to teams with winning records, neither of them were ranked.
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ACC Conference Standings
The biggest issue for Miami is that an already difficult road to the ACC championship almost became impossible on Saturday. The Hurricanes fell into seventh place in the league, and the top two teams will make it to Charlotte. Both SMU and Louisville are ahead of the Canes, and own the tie-breaker against both. And Georgia Tech and Virginia are still undefeated in league play. Neither plays Miami.
The winner of the ACC championship game will get an automatic bid in the College Football Playoff.
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| Team | ACC Record | Overall |
| Georgia Tech | 5-0 | 8-0 |
| Virginia | 4-0 | 7-1 |
| Pitt | 4-1 | 6-2 |
| SMU | 4-1 | 6-3 |
| Duke | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Louisville | 4-1 | 7-1 |
| Miami | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Wake Forest | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| California | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Virginia Tech | 2-3 | 3-6 |
| Stanford | 2-3 | 3-5 |
| Clemson | 2-4 | 3-5 |
| NC State | 1-3 | 4-4 |
| North Carolina | 1-3 | 3-5 |
| Syracuse | 1-5 | 3-6 |
| Florida State | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Boston College | 0-5 | 1-7 |
Miami's future games
Here's a look at Miami's schedule moving forward. It should be favored in all four games, but none will be considered a quality win with the committee unless Pitt continues its hot play of late. NC State, Syracuse and Virginia Tech all are currently with losing records.
| Date | Opponent |
| Nov. 8 | vs. Syracuse |
| Nov. 15 | vs. NC State |
| Nov. 22 | @ Virginia Tech |
| Nov. 29 | @ Pitt |
Head coach Mario Cristobol will face some heat if he misses the playoff for the second consecutive season.