Virginia was picked to finish 14th out of 17 teams in the ACC preseason poll on July 30.
Who would have guessed the Cavaliers would be the only unbeaten team in conference play and projected to make the College Football Playoff heading into Week 11? By the way, that's by a technicality. A 35-31 loss to NC State on Sept. 6 was a non-conference game.
The Wolfpack knocked off the last unbeaten in the conference Saturday. NC State upset No. 8 Georgia Tech 48-36. That was after SMU upset No. 10 Miami – a shocking second loss for the Hurricanes. Preseason favorite Clemson fell to 3-5 after a 46-45 loss to Duke.
Virginia beat Cal 31-21, and No. 16 Louisville beat Virginia Tech 28-16. The Cardinals' lone loss was a 30-27 thriller against the Cavaliers on Oct. 4. Was that the ACC championship game preview? Or will Pitt – who is 7-2 with a 5-1 ACC record?
Exciting? Yes. But it also means the ACC likely will get just one bid in the College Football Playoff, especially with No. 12 Notre Dame making a run at one of those bids despite a 27-24 loss to the Hurricanes on Aug. 31. The ACC has five teams with two losses or less heading into Week 11, the fewest among the Power 4 conferences.
Here is a look at our latest playoff projections, including first-round byes, first-round matchups and bubble teams.
Dropped out: Georgia Tech, Miami, Fla., Navy, Vanderbilt
Moved in: Memphis, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Virginia
MORE: How Miami's loss shakes up the ACC, CFP races
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 5-0; Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes played a tight first half against Penn State before shutting out the Nittany Lions in the second half of a 38-14 victory. Julian Sayin (20 of 23, 316 yards, 3 TDs) continues to enjoy a Heisman-worthy season, and Carnell Tate (5-124, TD) and Jeremiah Smith (6-123, 2 TDs) both had 100-yard games along with running back Bo Jackson (13-105). Penn State had 40 total yards in the second half. The Buckeyes travel to Purdue in Week 11.
MORE: Ohio State's Big Three put up big numbers in rout of Penn State
No. 2 Alabama (7-1, 5-0; SEC champion)
The Crimson Tide had a bye week to prepare for LSU. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (2,184 yards, 20 TDs, 1 INT) has a chance to lead a SEC championship run and is among the Heisman contenders, too. Second-year coach Kalen DeBoer is in position to lead his first CFP run with Alabama. Did anybody think that was possible after Week 1 against Florida State?
No. 3 Indiana (9-0, 6-0; Big Ten at-large)
Indiana hammered Maryland 55-10. The Hoosiers rolled up 367 rushing yards and 588 total yards in yet another Big Ten blowout. Kaelon Black (14-110, TD), Roman Hemby (18-88, TD) and Khobie Martin (11-80, TD) keyed that relentless rushing attack. Indiana has outscored its last two opponents 111-16 heading into a Week 11 trip to Penn State.
No. 4 Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0; SEC at-large)
The Aggies likely will be ranked higher than the Crimson Tide in the first CFP rankings, and Texas A&M is more than capable of winning the SEC championship. Marcel Reed (1,972 yards, 17 TDs, 6 INTs) also has 349 rushing yards and six TDs. Texas A&M faces Missouri on the road in Week 11, and the Black Friday finale against Texas is going to be huge.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at AllSportsPeople projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 11 of the college football season:
No. 12 Memphis (8-1, 4-1 American champion) at No. 5 Georgia (7-1, 5-1; SEC at-large)
The Tigers are back after Navy suffered a 31-17 loss to North Texas. Memphis beat Rice 38-14, and the Tigers have another Friday night matchup against Tulane in Week 11. Six American Conference teams have one loss in conference play. The Bulldogs trailed in the second half in three straight SEC games, but Kirby Smart continues to find ways to win. Chauncey Bowens scored the game-winning 36-yard TD run with 4:36 remaining in the fourth quarter in a 24-20 victory against Florida. The Bulldogs travel to Mississippi State in Week 11.
MORE: Controversial review helps Georgia survive Florida
No. 11 Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1; Big 12 at-large) at No. 6 Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1 SEC at-large)
Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton (21 of 32, 249 yards, 2 TDs, INT) returned from a leg injury, and J'Koby Williams (17-135, TD) and Cameron Dickey (21-68, TD) keyed the rushing attack in an impressive 43-20 victory at Kansas State. The Red Raiders face BYU in Week 11 – which could be the first of two matchups. Ole Miss beat South Carolina 30-14 and stayed on track in the SEC championship race under Lane Kiffin. Trinidad Chambliss (12 of 21, 159 yards, TD, INT) had 59 rushing yards and a TD, and Kewan Lacy (24-167 yards, TD) topped 100 yards for the fourth time this season. The formula works. Ole Miss faces The Citadel in Week 11.
No. 10 Notre Dame (6-2; Independent at-large) at No. 7 Oregon (7-1, 4-1; Big Ten at-large)
We know the Irish lost to Miami in Week 1, but this is projecting forward. The Hurricanes have a complicated path to the ACC championship game now – and Notre Dame continued its six-game winning streak with a 25-10 victory at Boston College. CJ Carr (18 of 25, 299 yards, 2 TDs) and Jeremiyah Love (17-136, 2 TDs) were solid again. The Irish take on Navy in Week 11. Oregon had its second bye week to prepare for the stretch run. The 30-20 loss to Indiana on Oct. 11 is a major roadblock to the Big Ten championship game, and a road test at Iowa in Week 11 will not be easy. Oregon is 6-0 in multi-time zone games in the Big Ten under Dan Lanning.
No. 9 Virginia (8-1, 5-0; ACC champion) at No. 8 BYU (8-0, 5-0; Big 12 champion)
The Cavaliers have won five straight games by 10 points or less – a trend that continued in a 31-21 victory at Cal. Kam Robinson clinched the victory with a 35-yard interception return for a TD with 34 seconds remaining. Virginia's last three games are against Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech. The Cougars have a chance to go 9-0 for the second straight season against Texas Tech in a matchup with huge Big 12 implications. BYU also has an upcoming road game at Cincinnati (Nov. 22). It's a challenge for freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier (1,693 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs), who leads BYU with nine rushing TDs.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Texas (7-2, 4-1)
Look who's back. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt 34-31, and Arch Manning (25 of 33, 329 yards, 3 TDs) has six TDs and one interception in his last two SEC starts. Texas still has dates with Georgia (Nov. 15) and Texas A&M (Nov. 28) on the schedule, and the head-to-head victories against Oklahoma and Tennessee are huge.
MORE: Breaking down Arch Manning's big day against Vanderbilt
Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2)
The Sooners kept their CFP hopes alive with a 33-27 victory against Tennessee on the road. John Mateer (19 of 29 yards, 159 yards, INT) had 80 yards and a rushing TD, and Oklahoma took advantage of three Volunteers' turnovers in a de facto SEC elimination game. Oklahoma has a bye week before a trip to Alabama on Nov. 15.
MORE: Oklahoma stays alive with clutch win at Tennessee
Vanderbilt (7-2, 3-2)
The Commodores rallied in the fourth quarter behind Diego Pavia (27 of 38, 365 yards, 3 TDs) in a 34-31 loss at Texas. Losses to Alabama and Texas aren't dealbreakers, but Vanderbilt will have to win out against Auburn, Kentucky and the regular-season finale against Tennessee.
MORE: Where Vandy stands in SEC race after loss at Texas
Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1)
The Yellow Jackets fell from the ranks of the unbeaten teams after a 48-36 loss at NC State. Haynes King (25 of 35, 408 yards, 2 TDs, INT) had 103 rushing yards and two TDs, but Georgia Tech allowed 583 yards and forced no turnovers. Georgia Tech still has to play Pitt (Nov. 22) and Georgia (Nov. 28). That's a tough schedule down the stretch.
Louisville (7-1, 4-1)
The Cardinals rallied from a halftime deficit to pull out a 28-16 victory at Virginia Tech. Louisville outscored the Hokies 21-0 in the second half. Isaac Brown (16-130, TD) averages 8.6 yards per carry this season, and Keyjuan Brown (12-94, 2 TDs) also had a huge game. The Cardinals have three of their last four games at home, starting with Cal in Week 11.