It feels like a never-ending cycle of assessing the significance of an upcoming race weekend to the second Red Bull car. Yuki Tsunoda had scored his best result, in a Red Bull, at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix but backed it up with a no-score in Singapore.
Although the Japanese driver cited the strong pace that he was unable to show in Singapore, the reality is that time is ticking away from him, with Red Bull set to make their final 2026 driver decision imminently.
Speaking to Sky Germany during the Dutch Grand Prix weekend, the squad’s motorsport adviser Helmut Marko, said: “We’ve extended the options, or rather, the drivers have extended them with us. So, around September or October, we want to have a few more races to observe, and then we’ll make the decisions.”
That would point towards this weekend’s United States Grand Prix and next weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix as crucial in dictating Red Bull’s driver decision, before they come to their conclusion.
Of course, a driver situation can always be fluid, so Red Bull may want to wait a little longer if they feel that their data set needs a couple more races to expand. But it feels as if Tsunoda needs to reach the next step if he is to retain the trust of the Austrian team.
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In the 16 races in which Tsunoda has driven for Red Bull, he has amassed just 20 points and went on a seven-race-non-scoring streak during the summer. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen has scored 237 points in that time.
Meanwhile, rookie Isack Hadjar has greatly impressed in the Racing Bulls and earned a breakthrough podium at Zandvoort. With the French driver rivalling his former teammate for the drive in 2026, the task of retaining his seat appears more unlikely for Tsunoda.
LAP 39/51
— Formula 1 (@F1) September 21, 2025
Tsunoda pits and gets back out in front of Lawson but back comes the Kiwi and takes P5 ⚔️#F1 #AzerbaijanGP pic.twitter.com/eHprjQgqA5
It is clear that he has made steps forward recently. With the arrival of new team principal Laurent Mekies, who Tsunoda worked with at the junior team, upgraded car part specs have been more forthcoming and we have seen more speed from him, particularly on Fridays.
But he has struggled to put weekends together and match his pace with execution. For instance, in Singapore, a sudden loss of grip in qualifying was worsened by a wretched race start and his grand prix was thus doomed, as he went on to be lapped by teammate Max Verstappen.
Red Bull do not want to necessarily change driver for the third time in a year; having dropped Sergio Perez at the end of last season and his replacement Liam Lawson two races into this year. But the team also want results, and Tsunoda desperately needs an instant up-tick in form if he is to secure a seat for 2026.
A continuation of his 2025 form, at the US and Mexico City Grand Prix, may relegate him out of the senior team and possibly the sport altogether.