Barring a tie in their Week 4 marquee matchup, either the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) or the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) will fall to 1-3. That's a mark neither multiple MVP-winning starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes nor Lamar Jackson, has ever experienced in their Hall of Fame-bound careers.
The Chiefs and Ravens, along with the 3-0 Buffalo Bills, were on the short list of favorites to win the 2025 AFC championship and advance to Super Bowl 60. But after Sunday's game at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), one team will be in serious trouble to make a real playoff run.
Although 1-3 teams have rallied to make the playoffs before, such a hole after the first quarter of an NFL season doesn't bode well to be positioned to reach the ultimate goal of winning a ring. The Chiefs have lost to the 3-0 Chargers and 3-0 Eagles early. The Ravens have been beaten by the 3-0 Bills and 2-1 Lions.
Those losses to other strong teams might seem acceptable, but there's little room left to slide in the quest to get above .500.
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So who needs the win more on Sunday, host Kansas City or visiting Baltimore? Here's breaking it down:
Why the Chiefs are in danger of falling to 1-3
They lost close games to the Chargers and Eagles, two very good teams. Then they were methodical about taking care of the Giants with enough running and big pass plays to complement the defense.
Overall, despite having Mahomes, the Chiefs are tied for 21st in scoring offense, at an average of 20 points per game. They are average in passing and running, with the latter stats padded a lot by Mahomes early. They are tied for 14th in third-down conversion rate (41.5 percent) and tied for 19th in red zone TD rate (50 percent).
These aren't unusual issues for Kansas City, with the skill players always in flux and the line combination not working out yet. But they cannot be so anemic on offense and expect to beat the Ravens.
MORE: Why does Patrick Mahomes wiggle his fingers?
Why the Ravens are in danger of falling to 1-3
The Ravens are sub-.500 despite having the highest-scoring offense in the league, an average of 37 points per game. Baltimore is having the opposite problem as Kansas City, with the total defense dead last in the NFL (415 yards per game allowed) and the scoring defense (32 points per game) ranked 31st, ahead of only the Dolphins.
They have only two giveaways, but those were the Derrick Henry lost fumbles that cost them against the Bills and Lions late. With the defense so bad, the Ravens haven't been able to afford turning the ball over when not taking it away, either.
Baltimore is No. 31 against the pass, better than only Dallas. The Ravens also are No. 30 against the run, better than only the Bills and Giants. That kind of atypical injury-impacted play won't cut it against the Chiefs.
MORE: How Derrick Henry's fumble doomed Ravens vs. Lions
Why the Chiefs need to avoid 1-3
The Chiefs would have losses to the Bills, Eagles and Ravens early. Another losing result to AFC title contenders would derail them early from getting the top seed in home-field advantage in the playoffs as they try to get to an eighth straight conference championship game and fourth consecutive Super Bowl.
After the Ravens, the Chiefs face seven more playoff teams from last season: vs. Lions in Week 6, vs. Commanders in Week 8, at Bills in Week 9, vs. Broncos in Week 11, vs. Texans in Week 14, vs. Chargers in Week 15 and vs. Broncos in Week 17. Their games at Jacksonville and vs. Indianapolis are now tougher than anticipated.
MORE: Travis Kelce, Andy Reid get into sideline confrontation during Giants win
Furthermore, the Chiefs are already two games and a tiebreaker behind the Chargers in the AFC West standings. If they lose and the Chargers beat the Giants as expected, it would be a three-game hole with 13 left to play or both teams.
Desperation kicked in for the Chiefs vs. the Giants. That needs to be the same mindset for the Ravens back at home. The back half of the Chiefs' schedule, especially after their Week 10 bye, is very favorable. They just need to get there in decent shape, a little above .500, not still digging to even their record.
Why the Ravens need to avoid 1-3
The Ravens are tied for third place with the 1-2 Browns and are a game behind the 2-1 Bengals and 2-1 Steelers in the AFC North standings. The Bengals have lost QB Joe Burrow long-term and the Steelers are trying to iron out defensive issues of their own.
There's no dominant team, a la the Chargers, in the Ravens' division. After playing the Chiefs, the Ravens have three consecutive home games (vs. Texans, vs. Rams, vs. Bears) and a bye week over the next month.
Baltimore's overall schedule in the final 13 games is much easier on paper than Kansas City's. After the Texans and Rams, the only 2024 playoff teams the Ravens face are the Vikings, Steelers (twice) and Packers. They still have a clear path to winning the division with five North games left, including two each vs. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
Although all of that is favorable to give the Ravens a higher margin for error than the Chiefs, with how their defense isn't stopping much of anything, another bad game on that side may signal a long-term trend. The returns of Nnamdi Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy to the front seven can only help so much.
MORE: How DeAndre Hopkins went from Texans star to Lamar Jackson's new weapon
Who needs to avoid 1-3 more, the Chiefs or Ravens?
The Chiefs, based on the standings and Super Bowl or bust being their annual standard, need to win more on Sunday. There have been several talented but early underachieving teams to make the playoffs after starting 1-3. But only the 2001 Patriots were able to rebound from such a bad first month of the season and still win the Super Bowl.
Going 0-2 was already not fun for Kansas City. There are plenty of examples of 1-2 and 2-2 opening teams to make and win the Super Bowl. The Eagles were .500 after Week 4 last season and won Super Bowl 59 over the Chiefs.
But in the landscape of the AFC, with the Bills and Chargers set to go 4-0, the Chiefs would not only be headed toward losing a top seed, but also settling for a wild card. The Ravens can still recover from 1-3 to make a run. The Chiefs can, too, but it would end with them ending the season like it began — Super Bowl hungover.