There are six unbeaten teams in the NFL heading into Week 4.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills were expected. The Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers make sense. The Indianapolis Colts? Yeah, we didn't see that coming. How many of those teams will make it to Week 5 with that record still standing?
Philadelphia and Tampa Bay could be an NFC championship game preview. This is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield to put his name in the early NFL MVP discussion. Mayfield has led three fourth-quarter game-winning drives this season, and he hasn't thrown an interception. The Bucs will get a lot more attention if they take down the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Bills, 49ers and Chargers are all favored this week. That leaves the Colts, who are underdogs on the road against the Rams. Who would have predicted the afternoon game would feature teams with better combined records than the Chiefs and Ravens? We really didn't expect that.
Straight up: 32-16 (10-6 in Week 3)
Against the spread: 23-23-2 (10-6 in Week 3)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 4. Odds according to Caesars.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 4
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Seahawks are 2-1 with Sam Darnold at quarterback, and a healthy Kenneth Walker III has been a difference maker on the ground. Will that hold against a Cardinals' run defense that has allowed just 76.3 rushing yards per game? Seattle has won the last four meetings in Arizona. It's a toss-up on Thursday Night Football.
Pick: Seahawks 21, Cardinals 20
- Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 9:30 a.m.; NFL Network
Both teams forced five turnovers in Week 3 – so it's about protecting the football here. Aaron Rodgers didn't take a sack in Week 3, and Minnesota will try to change that with defensive coordinator Brian Flores. JJ McCarthy (ankle) will be worth watching during the week, but it could be Carson Wentz in Ireland. The Vikings are 4-0 S/U in the NFL International Series, so Pittsburgh better be careful.
Pick: Steelers 24, Vikings 21
MORE: NFL Week 4 picks against the spread
- Washington Commanders (-2) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Let's sort out the quarterbacks. If Jayden Daniels (wrist) can't go, then former Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota will go. If Michael Penix Jr. struggles again, would Atlanta turn to former Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins? Washington is 3-0 S/U as an away favorite since last season, but that comes with a 1-2 record ATS. That makes this game complicated.
Pick: Commanders 29, Falcons 22
- New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Buffalo failed to cover at a 12.5-point spread in Week 3, but that was a division rival. New Orleans trailed 38-6 at halftime in a blowout loss at Seattle. This season, NFL teams are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of eight points or more. Knowing that, the Saints have to run a little bit against a Buffalo defense that allows 146 yards per game on the ground.
Pick: Buffalo 31, Saints 16
- Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Browns are riding high with a nasty defense that showed out against the Packers. The Lions are a different story at home. Look for Dan Campbell to stay aggressive in the passing game with Jared Goff, who had five TD passes at home in Week 2. Detroit's defense will have to slow Quinshon Judkins, who had 18 carries for 94 yards in Week 3.
Pick: Lions 27, Browns 14
MORE: Watch Andre Szymt play hero for Browns in Packers stunning upset
- Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Are the Panthers turning a corner? Carolina shut out the Falcons 30-0, and that sets up a road trip. The Panthers have scored 16 points per game on the road this season. New England has the second-best run defense in the NFL (60.3 ypg), and that is going to force Bryce Young to make plays in the passing game. He has a 58.9% completion percentage and three INTs in two games. Drake Maye ranks third in the NFL with a 72.6% completion percentage.
Pick: Patriots 21, Panthers 19
MORE: How Patriots fumbled away loss to Steelers
- Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Jim Harbaugh's formula of grinding teams with a tough running game and defense is working, but keep an eye on the protection. Justin Herbert has taken 10 sacks through three games – the fourth-most in the league. The Giants will bring that rush, but Russell Wilson will struggle against a sound Chargers' defense that allows just 276.7 yards per game.
Pick: Chargers 24, Giants 14
MORE: Will Giants bench Russell Wilson for Jaxson Dart?
- Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Buccaneers will be a hot pick here. Can Mayfield press the Eagles away from a high-percentage attack with Jalen Hurts that has amounted to 159.7 yards per game? Saquon Barkley hasn't rushed for 100 yards in a game this season – and the Bucs haven't allowed 100 yards on the ground either. Monitor that. Mayfield might get another shot for a game-winning drive here.
Pick: Eagles 30, Buccaneers 24
MORE: How Eagles showed Super deadly offense in win over Rams
- Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Two AFC South teams with matching 0-3 records are desperate for a victory here. The Titans rank 30th in the NFL in run defense (145.7 ypg), which should help a Houston offense that has struggled running the ball. Cam Ward still is looking for his first win – and Tennessee has won four of the last five games in Houston.
Pick: Texans 23, Titans 20
- Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Colts are the surprise 3-0 team of the early season, and Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 338 rushing yards. That has been huge for Daniel Jones. The Rams, however, feature a solid run defense that allows just 103 yards per game. Will there be a hangover from the Philadelphia loss?
Pick: Rams 33, Colts 23
- Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The 49ers are still waiting on the return of Brock Purdy (toe), which opens the door for Mac Jones to start against his former team. Jacksonville has forced three turnovers in each of its first three games under first-year coach Liam Coen – but the 49ers' defense will be the difference here. San Francisco moves to 4-0. Watch out.
Pick: 49ers 28, Jaguars 21
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Will the Chiefs lose a second home game and fall to 1-3? That will start with Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has not had 250 passing yards in a game yet. The Ravens are coming off a short week and have played against two elite offenses in Buffalo and Detroit. Lamar Jackson is 1-4 S/U against the Chiefs, including playoffs.
Pick: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21
- Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-1)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Caleb Williams threw four TDS in Week 4 – and now the next step for first-year coach Ben Johnson is to take that on the road. Williams is 1-8 as a starter with an 81.9 passer rating. Maxx Crosby will get a few sacks, but do the Raiders have enough offense to get Pete Carroll his first home victory?
Pick: Bears 22, Raiders 17
MORE: Caleb Williams enjoys breakout game in dominant Cowboys win
- Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Micah Parsons returns to Dallas – and the Packers must move on after a 13-10 loss to Cleveland in Week 3. Parsons has 42 tackles and five sacks in 10 career games on Sunday Night Football, but the key will be how Jordan Love bounces back against a struggling Dallas defense that has three sacks in three games.
Pick: Packers 27, Cowboys 16
MORE: How long is CeeDee Lamb out for Cowboys?
- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Monday, 7:15 p.m., ESPN
It's a battle of 0-3 teams. The Jets have been close in heartbreaking losses to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay under Aaron Glenn. Justin Fields (concussion) could return here. Miami has allowed 145 rushing yards per game – which ranks 29th in the NFL. How hot is Mike McDaniel's seat if Miami loses here? This one comes to turnovers – and neither team has forced one through three games.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
- Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
The Bengals had five turnovers in a disastrous 48-10 loss in Week 5. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite since last season – but the pass defense has allowed 288 yards per game the last two weeks. Jake Browning will lead a few scoring drives with Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, but it won't be enough to win on the road.
Pick: Broncos 25, Bengals 18