If the raw College Football Playoff picture was stripped down, No. 7 Penn State would be in trouble.
If the playoff were held today, the Nittany Lions would be left out. The reason is straightforward as they don’t have a defining win against a top-tier opponent. That absence of a signature victory leaves the selection committee little to work with. In the world of college football, resume and strength of schedule matters just as much as record. And Penn State’s resume currently lacks the kind of headline that moves the needle.
This creates enormous pressure as they prepare to face Ohio State on November 1. History hasn’t been kind to Penn State in Columbus and the Buckeyes remain a roadblock. But without a win of that caliber, the Lions’ Playoff hopes could collapse.
Even if they handle No. 8 Indiana, finishing at 10–2, their best victory on paper would be against the Hoosiers, who are a respectable team, but not enough to sway the committee in a season that promises to be loaded with other strong two-loss contenders. In such a crowded field, Penn State risks being forgettable.
That’s why the Ohio State matchup is so large. A victory there doesn’t just add a win, but reshapes the entire narrative. Suddenly, Penn State wouldn’t just be another solid team.
They’d be one with a marquee win against arguably the nation's top ten. That would prove they belong in the playoff conversation. Another loss and Penn State becomes an afterthought. But a Win and the entire perception of their season flips overnight.
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