NFL Mock Draft 2026: New No. 1 pick as Arch Manning falls in Week 1 college football overreactions

Anthony Licciardi

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NFL Mock Draft 2026: New No. 1 pick as Arch Manning falls in Week 1 college football overreactions image

It took about 15 minutes on Saturday for an offseason's worth of hype to get turned upside down.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning was awful in what was supposed to be his coming-out party, setting social media ablaze and challenging everyone's priors. Alabama got embarrassed by Florida State, and in the nightcap, LSU looked much more like a championship contender than Clemson, who mustered a measly 10 points.

In the land of one-game sample sizes, overreactions are rampant. With little certainty about the 2026 NFL Draft, there is no better time to let the takes fly. 

After one week of college action, stocks are still volatile. The first round remains ripe with passers, but projecting how they'll fall is already a little more difficult. Where do they stand ahead of NFL action?

MORE: Ranking the best quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft

NFL Mock Draft 2026

1. New Orleans Saints

  • Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (6-1, 200 pounds)

Among the draft-eligible passers with Round 1 hype, none looked better than Nussmeier in Week 1.

Against a talent-laden Clemson defense stocked with Sunday talent, Nussmeier remained poised and in control. His pre-snap prowess, which is easily the best in the class, flashed regularly to set the offense up for success. He threw for 230 yards and a touchdown while avoiding turnovers, looking ready for the challenges of NFL defenses.

The questions surrounding Nussmeier's upside will persist, but staying home in Louisiana is a distinct possibility after his excellent opener.

NFL SCOUTING REPORT: Garrett Nussmeier primed to explode at LSU

2. Cleveland Browns

  • LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (6-2, 240 pounds)

Sellers didn't change his outlook much in Week 1 against Virginia Tech. His legs were a massive weapon that helped close out the game; his elite arm strength was on full display, and everything else was a work in progress. 

The flashes of nuance are tantalizing. The inconsistencies in his mechanics and decisions are maddening. Sellers' Houdini act is still the biggest question mark of the 2026 class. With many quarterbacks struggling in Week 1, the South Carolina phenom stands to gain by treading water, but it will be his development that sets him apart.

MORE: LaNorris Sellers' athleticism earns South Carolina quarterback national praise

3. New York Jets

  • Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (6-4, 236 pounds)

Allar has always had the tools to be a true QB1 candidate. Earning trust in his intangibles to complete the profile has, to this point, held him back.

There's always a grain of salt against low-level competition like Nevada. However, in the Nittany Lions' 46-11 win, Allar looked comfortable in the pocket. He threw just four incompletions and took one sack while effortlessly stretching the field. Allar cannot be written off as a potential top prospect, opening the door for a reunion with star left tackle Olu Fashanu in East Rutherford.

4. Tennessee Titans

  • Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (6-2, 275 pounds)

Bain came into the year having to answer questions about last year's injury. He answered them against an elite Notre Dame offense. He was arguably the best player on the field and one of the strongest performers from the first full week of collegiate action.

The athletic traits returned in full force, his power made its presence felt and he came through in the game's biggest moment. Tennessee took an edge rusher in my last mock, and Bain made a good argument to be the position's top prospect on Saturday.

5. New York Giants

  • Spencer Fano, OT, Utah (6-5, 308 pounds)

New York attempted to pair Andrew Thomas with a blue-chip bookend when it drafted Evan Neal in 2022. Obviously, that didn't work out, and right tackle remains a long-term need for the Giants (despite Jermaine Eluemunor looking the part).

Fano has long been in contention for OT1. He furthered that cause against UCLA. He's far more polished than Neal coming out, and his blend of strength and athleticism could lock him into the top half of the first round. 

6. Indianapolis Colts

  • Arch Manning, QB, Texas (6-3, 216 pounds)

Simply put, Manning had an ugly season opener. The odds were stacked against him as he made his first start on the road, facing an elite Ohio State roster and an NFL-level defensive playcaller in Matt Patricia. 

It was easily the most uncomfortable Manning had ever looked. He was late on throws he shouldn't have missed, and his mechanics fell apart. The accuracy wasn't as advertised, either. Frankly, there is work to be done to reset his stock and deserve the praise many (including yours truly) gave him this summer. Yet, there's no reason for him to declare if he isn't going early, so it's hard to push him down too far.

NFL SCOUTING REPORT: Is it too early for Arch Manning QB1 talks?

Arch Manning

7. Carolina Panthers

  • T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson (6-3, 265 pounds)

Parker has preseason expectations and enticing measurables to buoy his stock. He looked fine on Sunday, although better against the run, and there's little to suggest his stock has fallen out of the top 10.

The Panthers are in desperate need of pass-rushing juice, and Parker is a safe bet for immediate production. Some projections feel rather complex this far from April. Carolina adding a high-profile edge rusher doesn't have to be.

8. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Peter Woods, DT, Clemson (6-2, 315 pounds)

For my money, Woods is the best player in this class. The pass-rushing upside is evident, the floor is high enough to trust and his violence against the run stands out.

In the post-Christian Wilkins era, the Raiders lack talent in the trenches. Stuffing the run is important to Pete Carroll's operation, and giving Maxx Crosby a worthy co-star would be a significant step in stopping the electric offenses that smell blood in the AFC West. Woods is an established prospect, a great athlete and a contributor at a high-value position -- everything fans could want in an early pick.

9. Miami Dolphins

  • Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (5-10, 193 pounds)

McCoy didn't play in Tennessee's opener, but he'll begin the season as the consensus top corner in the 2026 class. He's a scheme-diverse defensive back who projects as a strong starter on the boundary, boasting the upside to man-up on opposing stars.

Meanwhile, Miami has some needs in the secondary. An optimized Minkah Fitzpatrick has quality boundary corners funneling passes to the middle of the field, and McCoy is poised to produce early in his career.

Assuming McCoy's health doesn't become an issue, he's likely to earn significant draft capital.

10. Cleveland Browns (via Jacksonville Jaguars)

  • Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (5-11, 205 pounds)

In turning down Travis Hunter, the Browns found the opportunity to add multiple elite prospects to their defense. That started with defensive tackle Mason Graham and could very well continue with Jacksonville's first-round pick.

Downs is one of the best safety prospects in recent memory, and the NFL's hesitance to invest in the position may be the only thing pushing his stock down. In Week 1, Patricia moved him around the field, allowing him to wreak havoc at every level of the field. With Garrett and Graham dominating on the defensive line and Carson Schwesinger providing a path to upside at the second level, Downs' processing and versatility could complete the unit.

11. New England Patriots

  • Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (6-1, 195 pounds)

Tyson is 2026's safest bet to earn first-round capital at receiver. New England added blue-chip talent at quarterback in 2024 and left tackle a year later. This time around, the Patriots could add an instant playmaker to make life easier for Drake Maye.

Pairing Tyson's fluidity and separation skills with veteran Stefon Diggs would push the unit closer to league average and raise the offense's ceiling. He has inside-outside versatility and a willingness to attack defensive backs in the ground game, a trait bound to catch head coach Mike Vrabel's attention.

NFL SCOUTING REPORT: Why Jordyn Tyson is early favorite for 2026 WR1

12. Los Angeles Rams (via Atlanta Falcons)

  • Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State (6-3, 235 pounds)

Like much of the Ohio State defense, Styles looked awesome against Texas in Week 1. He rushed the passer well, showcased his athleticism in coverage and was frequently around the ball. 

Styles is in a position to raise his stock this season, and the Rams could use a difference-maker at the second level. Last year's rookie class was incredibly impactful, injecting athleticism and brawn into the defensive line. Giving defensive coordinator Chris Shula another toy to play with while mitigating one of the roster's weaker points is a win-win for Los Angeles.

Jack Sawyer, Sonny Styles, Ty Hamilton

13. Dallas Cowboys

  • Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn (6-5, 270 pounds)

The Cowboys traded edge rusher Micah Parsons and covered for their incompetence with complaints about cap space and run defense. Drafting Faulk as a Parsons replacement isn't fair to the former, but he checks the box as a high-level pass rusher who is excellent against the run. 

He'd provide plenty of upside at a fraction of Parsons' cost, and while that doesn't excuse the deal, it does give the Dallas faithful something to get excited about. Even at No. 13, Faulk feels like a steal, and he furthered his case in Week 1 against Baylor.

MORE: Full details on 2025 Cowboys trade with Packers for Micah Parsons

14. Seattle Seahawks

  • Denzel Boston, WR, Washington (6-3, 209 pounds)

Boston's production will keep him around the Round 1 conversation, and his five-catch, 92-yard performance against Colorado State set the tone for his 2025 campaign.

His frame and adequate straight-line speed give him some upside downfield, but he's at his best making contested catches and moving the chains. Fortunately for his stock, he isn't overly reliant on those plays -- he's a proficient separator underneath and has a diverse release package, too.

Seattle can go in a handful of directions in April, and adding a complementary piece to Jaxon Smith-Njigba would aid the Seahawks' quest for an above-average passing offense.

15. Arizona Cardinals

  • Gabe Jacas, EDGE, Illinois (6-2, 275)

Jacas has the profile of a Senior Bowl superstar who leaps into Round 1 late in the process. He got a head start on Friday.

With above-average athleticism, Jacas has regularly produced good win rates, and he has a knack for getting to the quarterback and finding the football. Arizona is an elite pass rusher away from a top-flight defense. Rolling the dice on an edge rusher in Round 1 is a decent way to find that final piece of the puzzle.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson (5-11, 180 pounds)

Terrell forced a fumble against LSU in Week 1, but it was his continued sticky coverage in both man and zone that helped pave his path towards Round 1.

Trading for Jalen Ramsey boosted Pittsburgh's standing in the slot, and the team is banking on Joey Porter Jr.'s development on the outside. Adding another proficient corner could complete the Steelers' defense. In a division with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins laying waste to opposing defenses, a nuanced playmaker could have outsized benefits. Terrell's tenacity against the run fits what Pittsburgh wants to do, too. 

17. Chicago Bears

  • Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah (6-5, 308 pounds)

It isn't a great omen that left tackle Braxton Jones wasn't officially starting until the week before the season. The need for a new lineman could very well emerge in the coming months. From a stylistic perspective, I'd lean toward run-first linemen for Ben Johnson's Bears. However, Lomu's proficiency in pass protection might make him Caleb Williams' best friend.

Chicago is clearly willing to invest up front, and Lomu's polished technique and good athleticism are worthy of a first-round selection. Johnson holds the key to Williams' development, but a high-level tackle might be the most significant acquisition the Bears can realistically make.

18. Minnesota Vikings

  • Christen Miller, DT, Georgia (6-3,  305 pounds)

The Vikings feel comfortable with their interior defensive line, given that they traded Harrison Phillips. Even so, Minnesota can go in a handful of directions in Round 1. Both Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen are past their prime. Christen Miller insulates Minnesota's run defense, but there's enough juice to let him play on passing downs, too.

His blend of quickness, power and hand usage should keep him in the early-round conversation, and his conditioning is better than most of the bigger linemen in this class. Controlling the run game is paramount in January. Miller helps the Vikings get there.

19. Houston Texans

  • Connor Lew, OL, Auburn (6-3, 300 pounds)

Among the top performers from Week 1 was Lew, who stood out on a great Auburn offensive line against a fun Baylor defense.

Lew is polished and checks the box with his athleticism and frame. He's pro-ready in both phases and would immediately start for a Texans team in the middle of a front-five rebuild. Lew doesn't have to do much to be the first interior offensive lineman taken in April.

MORE: NFL power rankings for Week 1

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Dani Dennis-Sutton, EDGE, Penn State (6-4, 265 pounds)

In his first game as Penn State's primary pass rusher, Dennis-Sutton looked the part. It will matter more against stiffer competition later in the year, but if he's going to propel himself up draft boards, it would look a lot like this. 

Logging three tackles for loss and a sack against Nevada, he sported the athletic gifts that make him an intriguing prospect. The Buccaneers don't need to spend big on a pass rusher, but a versatile reinforcement on the defensive line opposite Yaya Diaby is a sound investment.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU (6-0, 191 pounds)

The football world has grown used to LSU sending explosive talents to the league. Delane might be next. 

In his debut for the Tigers, Delane was one of the best players on the field -- no small task against an excellent Clemson roster. His athleticism was on full display, as were his ball skills. Delane looks poised to have a big year in Baton Rouge.

As for the Chargers, a fairly anonymous group of defensive backs makes a deep playoff run harder to envision. Delane's ability to create turnovers would add potency to the unit and offer more credibility to a defense tasked with limiting a gauntlet of AFC quarterbacks.

22. Denver Broncos

  • David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech (6-3, 250 pounds)

Denver doesn't need much of anything on defense. It is expected to boast the league's top unit and has playmakers in the secondary, along the interior, and on the edge. Yet, the offense isn't in dire need of early ammunition, either, allowing the Broncos to make a luxury selection.

Having eyes on late-January football means planning on having a pass rush capable of taking over games. Pairing Bailey with Nik Bonitto on passing downs would make everyone's job easier, even if his struggles against the run cloud his NFL projection.

23. Los Angeles Rams

  • Carson Beck, QB, Miami (6-4, 215 pounds)

Beck entered the season as my QB10, projecting as an upper-level backup with limited upside as a starter. He did his best to make that look silly against Notre Dame.

Beck's arm looked as live as ever, and he made plays out of structure against a talented Fighting Irish defense. He was decisive and aggressive downfield and was rewarded for it.

Playing his way back into the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft looks a lot like it did on Sunday. I'm not convinced teams are willing to pull the trigger on him over some other (more talented) passers, but the gap between Beck and Nussmeier may be smaller than initially anticipated.

NFL SCOUTING REPORT: Can Carson Beck rebound in Miami?

24. Washington Commanders

  • Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (6-0, 212 pounds)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt wakes up his alarm clock and gives the sun permission to set. He's the most popular out-of-nowhere running back in recent fantasy football memory, but at the end of the day, he's still a Day 3 running back.

And Day 3 running backs get replaced.

Love is the consensus top running back in the class and would be an injection of dynamic youth to the oldest roster in football. Washington lacks a true home-run hitter to complement Jayden Daniels, and while the Commanders aren't in the position to make luxury picks, a star running back amplified by Daniels' mobility could be a difference-maker.

25. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon (6-0, 207 pounds)

The Bengals missed the playoffs because of their defense in 2024, and the unit threatens to spoil their Super Bowl aspirations this season. It was an all-hands-on-deck effort to be as bad as Cincinnati was, and the safety combination of Geno Stone and Jordan Battle doesn't project to lift the unit in 2025. 

Thieneman's versatility stands out as the hallmark of an early-round safety prospect. He's explosive and fluid, capable of carrying crossers in man and making plays in zone. Thieneman isn't a stereotypical centerfielder; he's better in half-field and underneath zones than being the free safety in single-high looks. Likewise, his tenacity against the run should raise the floor of the Bengals' defense.

26. Dallas Cowboys (via Green Bay Packers)

  • Anthony Hill Jr., LB, Texas (6-2, 239 pounds)

Dallas might look to improve its run defense in the trenches, but the job won't be done until the second level is addressed. Hill is among the top defenders in the class because of his processing and discipline in the run game. Elsewhere, his athleticism makes him viable in coverage.

That polish is paramount, both to Hill's game and a Cowboys defense that has several explosive playmakers but fewer steady starters. Hill wasn't as strong in coverage against Ohio State, but there's plenty of time this season to replenish any momentum he might have lost.

27. San Francisco 49ers

  • Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama (6-6, 360 pounds)

Proctor entered Week 1 as arguably the top tackle in the class and left it somewhere worse. Just about everyone on Alabama struggled against Florida State, but Proctor's whiffs were concerning. 

Proctor is still a healthy bet to come off the board in Round 1, and San Francisco remains a candidate to take an offensive lineman when the time comes. Proctor's proficiency in the run game fits nicely with what head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to do, and if his pass protection gets back on track, he could reasonably hope to fill Trent Williams's shoes.

28. Kansas City Chiefs

  • DJ McKinney, CB, Colorado (6-1, 180 pounds)

The next episode of the Deion Sanders experience might have another first-round ending. McKinney is a good athlete with high-level ball skills, and he's getting some of the best mentorship a prospect could ask for. Even those lower on McKinney can point to his ball production and track record of success as reasons for optimism.

The Chiefs could use another defensive difference-maker in the secondary. A quality complement to Trent McDuffie could pay significant dividends in the arms race that is the AFC.

MORE: Three questions define the top tight ends in the 2026 NFL Draft

29. Detroit Lions

  • Jake Slaughter, OL, Florida (6-4, 294 pounds)

Slaughter isn't a lock for Round 1 (despite his presence in our last mock draft). However, an excellent showing in Week 1 started his season off on the right foot. Granted, it came against Long Island University, but the time for confirmation bias is nigh.

Detroit must rebuild its interior offensive line if it's going to keep its offense flying high after Johnson's departure. Tate Ratledge is a nice start. Slaughter, with guard/center versatility and ample athleticism, is an easy fit in the Lions' run game.

30. Buffalo Bills

  • Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (6-5, 315 pounds)

Getting over the hump requires a little bit of luck, and the first round hasn't been kind to Buffalo in recent years. Grabbing Mauigoa this late in Round 1 would be a steal that constitutes that kind of win.

The Bills don't need a replacement at tackle, but Mauigoa fits into the "best player available" category here, and there's a chance he kicks inside at the next level. A road grader in the run game, Mauigoa is dominant at the point of attack with upside in pass protection. Buffalo could use another high-level talent to keep pace with Kansas City. Winning the battle at the line of scrimmage is a welcome bonus.

31. Baltimore Ravens

  • Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (6-2, 191 pounds)

Tate began his 2025 campaign marching towards Round 1. Against a talented Texas defense, Tate made the game's most impressive catch, hauling in an underthrown deep ball for six. He has strong hands, excellent explosiveness and enough fluidity to trust as a route runner. 

There's some "sacrificial X receiver" in his game. Yet, Baltimore could use another boundary threat, and his upside is worthy of investment. Further insulating the passing offense makes sense come January, and Tate's development didn't take long to show out in 2025.

32. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon (6-2, 235 pounds)

Sadiq is on my radar as a real candidate for the best tight end in this year's class. He fits the bill as the type of too-talented-to-fall prospect that happens to land in Philadelphia, even if his stock isn't there just yet, and he was electric in Week 1. 

There's work to be done as a blocker, but Sadiq's competitive toughness far surpasses his big-slot-receiver frame. If his versatility improves, a Round 1 selection becomes a real possibility, and in the middle of the Eagles' offense, he'd be off to the races.

Sadiq is an excellent athlete who routinely makes plays after the catch and up the seam, offering upside at every level of the field. Philadelphia's long-term future at tight end is unsettled. Turning its 12-personnel packages into a force to be reckoned with only adds to the viability of this passing offense, prying a championship window open even longer.

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Anthony Licciardi

Anthony Licciardi is a freelance NFL Draft and MLB writer with The Sporting News. He has covered several NFL teams for Athlon Sports and Sports Illustrated’s wire sites. A 2023 Rutgers University graduate, Anthony is usually lost in a spreadsheet or a good book. He also enjoys grabbing coffee, playing with his cats and listening to an elite lineup of podcasts.