The 2025 Gold Cup semifinals are here, and reigning champions Mexico are closing in on another title defense.
After cruising through the group stage unbeaten and dispatching Saudi Arabia in the quarterfinals, El Tri now prepares for a showdown with Honduras, a team fresh off a dramatic penalty shootout win over Panama.
Led by Javier “Vasco” Aguirre, Mexico avoided a repeat clash with the U.S., their rivals from both the 2023 Gold Cup final and this year's Nations League decider. Instead, they'll square off against a Honduran side eager to keep their Cinderella run alive.
According to Bet365, Mexico are overwhelming favorites to reach the final, with odds of 1/4. Honduras, meanwhile, are massive underdogs at 9/1, while a draw sits at 15/4.
The Sporting News presents odds and predictions to bet and make the match more exciting.
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Mexico vs. Honduras prediction, tips, bet builder and odds
Raul Jimenez to score anytime: 7/5 (Betway)
Though Jimenez has only found the back of the net once this tournament, in Mexico's opener vs. the Dominican Republic, his track record against Honduras is encouraging. He scored in their Nations League quarterfinal meeting in late 2024, a 4-0 rout for El Tri. With his experience and nose for goal, the striker could be due for another breakthrough.
Mexico to score over 2.5 goals: 9/5 (Betway)
The only time Mexico failed to score in this tournament was a scoreless draw against Costa Rica. Since then, they've netted three against the Dominican Republic, followed by a pair each against Suriname and Saudi Arabia. Add to that the four-goal performance in their last matchup with Honduras, and this pick offers strong value for those expecting El Tri to light up the scoreboard again.
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Mexico vs. Honduras predicted lineups, team news
Mexico lost Dynamo Moscow midfielder Luis Chavez to a torn ACL, which he suffered in training ahead of the Saudi Arabia match. That could see Marcel Ruiz and Erik Lira get more time, as both newcomers have impressed.
Cesar Montes will return from his suspension for yellow card accumulation, but Jesus Gallardo is out of this game for the same reason. Nobody else is at risk of suspension from here on out as the card count is wiped for the semifinal.
The biggest winner of the Gold Cup for Mexico has been winger Alexis Vega who has snatched the starting spot on the left from Orbelin Pineda. On the right, Julian Quinones, Roberto Alvarado, and Cesar Huerta have all been handed time but none have gained hold of the position.
Aguirre's biggest call will be at striker, where he has tinkered with starting Raul Jimenez and Santiago Gimenez together as well as selecting one or the other.
- Mexico predicted XI (4-3-3, right to left): Malagon (GK) — Araujo, Montes, Reyes, Vasquez — Ruiz, Alvarez, Lira — Alvarado, Jimenez, Vega.
Injured: Chavez (ACL), Angulo (undisclosed).
Suspended: Gallardo (yellow cards).
Honduras have most of their veteran international stars with them for the 2025 Gold Cup, including goalkeeper Luis Lopez, midfielder Alexander Lopez, forward Romell Quioto, and captain Anthony Lozano, all of whom have over 50 international caps. However, they saw winger Rigoberto Rivas withdraw from the squad due to a muscle injury, replaced by Dixon Ramirez.
Lozano was left on the bench to begin the match against Canada, but came on to replace starter Jorge Benguche at halftime and scored the equalizer, so he could be brought in from the start here. Another potential change could be on the right as fellow substitute Luis Palma assisted Lozano's goal, having taken over for Edwin Rodriguez.
Head coach Reinaldo Rueda will have to decide between deploying Jorge Alvarez or Romell Quioto at the No. 10, where both have played a role so far this tournament.
- Honduras predicted XI (4-2-3-1, right to left): Menjivar (GK) — Crisanto, Maldonado, J. Martinez, Rosales — Flores, Arriaga — Palma, Quioto, J. Alvarez — Lozano.
Injured: Rivas (muscle).
Suspended: None.
Mexico vs. Honduras predicted score and most likely results
Here's some of the most likely results for this CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-final game, according to Bet365.
| Result | Odds* |
|---|---|
| Mexico 2-0 | 23/5 |
| Mexico 1-0 | 24/5 |
| Mexico 3-0 | 7/1 |
| Mexico 2-1 | 8/1 |
| Draw 1-1 | 9/1 |
*Odds correct at time of publish but subject to change
How to watch Mexico vs. Honduras in CONCACAF Gold Cup action
- Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025
- Venue: Levi's Stadium, San Francisco, CA
- Time: 3:00 a.m. BST
- TV/Streaming: Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports 2
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