Australia's Ashes preparations have been rocked by the admission from captain Pat Cummins that he is unlikely to be fit for the first Test against England in Perth.
The star fast bowler, who has been sidelined since July with a lower back stress injury, stated that he is “probably less likely than likely” to take the field at Optus Stadium on November 21.
Cummins's candid assessment confirms the worst fears of the Australian camp and hands a significant psychological advantage to Ben Stokes's England side.
The injury has been slow to heal, and the 32-year-old confirmed that time is running out to rebuild the necessary bowling workload before the start of cricket's most anticipated series.
(getty)
Cummins is weeks away from returning to the nets
Speaking on Monday at the launch of the Australian summer of cricket, Cummins confirmed that he has resumed running but is still some distance from returning to bowling at full intensity.
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“I’d say probably less likely than likely,” Cummins said regarding his chances for the Perth opener.
He elaborated on the crucial gap in his preparation, stating: “I’m running today and running kind of every second day... I’m probably a couple of weeks away before I actually put on the spikes and bowl on the turf.”
Pat Cummins has said it is unlikely he will play in the first Ashes Test in Perth. pic.twitter.com/FjrK65k39j
— Test Match Special (@bbctms) October 13, 2025
The fast bowler added that he would want "at least a month in the nets" to feel confident bowling 20 overs a day in a Test match, making the timeline for the Perth Test "pretty tight."
The risk factor and Steve Smith’s leadership
Despite the bleak outlook, Cummins hinted that he might be prepared to take a calculated gamble with his fitness, given the immense importance of the Ashes series.
He acknowledged that the team's reduced schedule in 2026 might encourage him to take a risk, but he must weigh that up against "taking stupid risks... that might cost you in the long term.”
If Cummins is formally ruled out, former captain Steve Smith will lead the side in Perth, with Scott Boland expected to take the final pace bowling slot alongside Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.
Cummins still intends to travel with the team, ensuring his presence and "wisdom, calm and sense of perspective" are available in the dressing room.
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