What's behind Arch Manning's struggles? Reality check reveals surprising truth about Longhorns QB

Kirk Bohls started covering the University of Texas in 1971 as the sports editor of The Daily Texan. 

He spent 51 years at the Austin-American Statesman before joining the Houston Chronicle in 2024. In that stretch, Bohls missed just one Red River Rivalry matchup heading into Saturday's matchup between Texas and No. 6 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl. 

Bohls could say he has seen all things Longhorns, even if he hasn't seen something quite like the supercell that enveloped quarterback Arch Manning after a 29-21 loss to Florida on Oct. 4.

Is the treatment of Manning fair or unfair? If anybody has a perspective worth listening to, it's Bohls.

"I would say it's unfair only in the realm in that he's a Manning, and as such, invites more micro-scrutiny than any other college athlete in recent time," Bohls told The Sporting News. "If his name was Arch McGillicutty, people would be like, 'Yeah, that quarterback at Texas started kind of slow.'"

At this point, we kind of wish his last name was McGillicutty so everyone would just chill out. Manning was the subject of unprecedented preseason hype, which I personally contributed to. Preseason No. 1. Heisman Trophy. No. 1 pick. I don't regret it either. Why not bet on a Manning? 

Texas is 3-2, and the corresponding tear-down of Manning is just as jarring. Unranked. Flop. Bust. It's all relentlessly infused with judgment that tags Manning for engagement by any means necessary, and why not? Like Bohls says, "The Mannings are the first family of football. Not just college football, but football."

"You put the surname with the ability that everyone agreed on as the No. 1 player in his recruiting class three years ago, that invites scrutiny as well that's probably deserved," Bohls said. "You couple that with the Texas brand, then you basically have a perfect storm for attention and examination." 

Our take? Manning is a product of that surname but also our creation, and he has failed to live up to those expectations through five games. The corresponding backlash is absurd when you look at the underlying reasons for the struggles. So, let's examine that. 

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Why is Arch Manning off to a slow start? 

Manning was preordained as college football's celebrity before the season even started, even if he made his best effort to downplay that hype at SEC Media Days. 

"I'm not sure how they get these opinions, I've only played, what, two games?" Manning said. "It's nice of them to say, but it doesn't mean anything. Talk is cheap, I gotta go prove it."

The appetite for Manning content cannot be satisfied. Matthew McConaughey and Glen Powell were among the Texas celebrities in attendance at the opener against No. 1 Ohio State on Aug. 30, but most of the cellphones were directed at either Lee Corso in his farewell game or Manning during warmups. Bohls knew there were concerns before the season started.  

"The offensive line had to replace four starters, they lost their two top receivers, and their running backs have been hurt," Bohls said. "They lost their tight end Gunnar Helm, and I'm guilty as anybody because I had them No. 1." 

Manning finished 17 of 30 for 170 yards, a TD and an interception in a 14-7 loss against the Buckeyes. He was inaccurate and indecisive, but that can be forgiven in hindsight knowing this might be a historically good Buckeyes' defense.

Through the next three games against San Jose State, Sam Houston and UTEP, Manning averaged 239.3 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions – but the most viral moment was when he flexed over Sam Houston's Antavious Fish after a touchdown run. 

Last week, Manning finished 16 of 29 for 263 yards, two TDs and two interceptions against Florida. The Gators sacked Manning six times and had 22 QB hurries. Bohls reached a far different conclusion from the mainstream hot take. 

"That represented progress to most of us who cover Texas because he was under fire," Bohls said. "He ran the ball well. He's their leading rusher after five games with 160 yards. That counts sacks, so it should be a whole lot more than that. He's got five rushing TDs. Their running backs – and they've played five of them – only have three." 

Manning is part of those struggles, too. According to Pro Football Focus, Manning is 31 of 63 (49.2%) for 825 yards, eight TDs and five interceptions on passes of 10 yards or more. He ranks 11th among SEC quarterbacks in passer rating (151.1). 

"We've all criticized Arch," Bohls said. "He hasn't played well. He admits he hasn't played well, but the criticism seems over the top." 

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How much criticism of Arch Manning is too much? 

The Manning family did not contribute to the hype. Arch was a backup for Quinn Ewers for two seasons, and there was never a hint of an intention to transfer. Peyton Manning praised Arch's decision to attend Texas in an interview with SN on June 19. 

"I'm proud of Arch," Peyton told SN. "He went to Texas because that's where he wanted to go. He wanted to go to school there. That was the reason I went to Tennessee."

Archie Manning – Arch's grandfather who played at Ole Miss and was the No. 2 pick in the 1971 NFL Draft – made headlines on Aug. 7 when he said Arch would skip the 2026 NFL Draft. Archie later apologized for those comments, even if there was no reason to. That should be the expectation now. 

Arch Manning had a NIL valuation of $6.8 million coming into the season. Fair or not – there is an expectation that comes with being the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning. Peyton passed for 11,202 yards, 89 TDs and 33 interceptions at Tennessee from 1994-97. Eli passed for 10,009 yards, 81 TDs and 35 interceptions at Ole Miss from 1999-2003. Both were No. 1 picks in the NFL who won two Super Bowls apiece and remain highly commercialized athletes in their post-football careers.

That is a lot of weight for any quarterback, especially one who struggles early in the season, and that has been magnified after the Longhorns' second loss. 

"I don't think he enjoys visiting with us right now, and I can't blame him for that," Bohls said. "He hasn't asked for all these stories, and he knows the drill. He has been around long enough and been such a focal point that it doesn't surprise him." 

Manning is not the first super-sized Texas player, by any means. Bohls covered Earl Campbell and Vince Young – who were Texas high-school football legends before arriving in Austin. Bohls compared the phenomenon to Bill Bradley, a high-school standout from Palestine, Texas, who was known as "Super Bill" before arriving in 1965. He would lose the starting job to James Street, who was 20-0 as a starter and led the Longhorns to the 1969 national championship.

Bohls is quick to point out, however, that all of those athletes played before social media. There is one other comparison that almost lands. Chris Simms – the son of two-time Super Bowl winner Phil Simms – arrived at Texas in 1999. 

"When he was the No. 1 player and had the surname – son of Phil Simms – he showed up as a freshman in a limo and kind of got skewered for that," Bohls said. "Here is the guy born with the sliver spoon, coming to the rescue, and he battled Major Applewhite the whole time they were here – back and forth."

Simms was 26-6 as a starter, but that didn't quite meet the hype. 

What will the future hold for Arch Manning? Everyone wants to know right now, and that is part of the problem. 

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Will Arch Manning bounce back at Texas? 

Perspective – and better protection – are needed. The offensive line needs to improve in the second half of the season. 

According to PFF, Texas has allowed 37 quarterback hurries through five games. That was at 17 through five games last year – and in Manning's two starts against UL-Monroe and Mississippi State there were only two. Tackles Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams along with center Hayden Connor were selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. Any offensive line that loses those three positions will have growing pains, and that is easy to see. 

"He's just not comfortable right now,” Bohls said. "In August I asked him, 'Do you get nervous,' and he said, 'No, do you?' He's real playful like that … It's just more comfort level. He's had seven starts, and I almost dismiss those two last year because it was Louisiana-Monroe and a Mississippi State team that went 0-8 in the SEC." 

The loss to the Gators increased that criticism, but let's do a fact check. 

Peyton Manning struggled against Florida, too. No. 4 Tennessee lost 33-20 to No. 3 Florida at The Swamp on Sept. 20, 1997. Peyton finished 29 of 51 – a 56.9% completion percentage – for 353 yards, three TDs and two interceptions. He finished 0-4 against Florida – a narrative that followed him to the 1998 NFL Draft. How did that turn out?

There is a far more recent example outside the family with Joe Burrow. He had 2,894 yards, a 57.8% completion percentage, 16 TDs and five interceptions in his first season as a full-time starter at LSU in 2019 after spending three years as a backup at Ohio State. The following season, Burrow passed for 5,671 yards, 60 TDS and six TDs for arguably the best team of the College Football Playoff era. 

If the Longhorns beat the Sooners and Manning plays well, we are right back to where we started. 

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That's our way of saying let it play out, please. Manning has more time to develop at Texas, and we might not see the best version until the 2026 season and beyond. Heisman Trophy. No. 1 pick. Flop. Bust. All of that is still on the table. Anyone who thinks it isn't doesn't know what they are talking about. Maybe listen to the guy who covered Texas football for more than 50 years instead. 

"Maybe he is just going to be an average to good quarterback," Bohls said. "That's possible, but it's funny we've seen him when he was very good. He just seemed so much more relaxed last year, and it probably has a whole lot to do with the supporting cast around him this year."