Will we have a three-loss SEC champion – and what does that mean for the College Football Playoff picture?
Those have to be the questions after more wild swings in Week 5. The top two SEC teams in the rankings went down. Ole Miss beat LSU 24-19. Alabama beat Georgia 24-21. You want to know why Paul Finebaum was getting an early start on the College Football Playoff campaign trail last week?
A total of 11 SEC schools have one loss or less heading into Week 6. Ten of those schools are ranked. The five remaining unbeatens – Ole Miss, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas A&M – aren't the ones you would expect. There is going to be more cannibalization along the way. We have five SEC teams in the CFP this week, but the highest-ranked team is at No. 4.
That made our Week 6 College Football Playoff picture quite an endeavor. Here is a look at our College Football Playoff Bracketology heading into a loaded Week 6, with the top four teams, the projected first-round matchups and the teams on the college football playoff bubble.
Dropped out: Oklahoma, Florida State, LSU
Moved in: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama
MORE: Five candidates to watch should Arkansas move on from Sam Pittman
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (4-0, Big Ten champion)
Ohio State limited Washington's offense to 234 total yards in a 24-6 road victory where the Huskies were just 1 of 11 on third down. The Buckeyes have allowed 5.5 points and two offensive TDs through four games. Julian Sayin (22 of 28, 208 yards, 2 TDs) was efficient in his first road start, especially when connecting with receiver Jeremiah Smith (8-81, TD). Ohio State faces Minnesota in Week 6.
MORE: Why Jeremiah Smith will win the Heisman Trophy
No. 2 Miami (4-0, ACC champion)
Miami has an impressive September collection of victories against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida – and now the rivalry is renewed with Florida State. This won't be a top-10 matchup after the Seminoles lost 56-48 to Virginia on Friday, but it's still a road test for Carson Beck, who leads the ACC with a 73.2% completion percentage. Miami coach Mario Cristobal is 1-2 against Florida State.
No. 3 Oregon (5-0, Big Ten at-large)
Who thought Dante Moore (29 of 39, 248 yards, 3 TDs) would silence Penn State in a 30-24 double-overtime victory? Oregon has two of their four multi-time-zone travel games out of the way and has the inside track on another Big Ten championship game appearance. Dan Lanning is now 11-0 in Big Ten regular-season games. The Ducks have a bye before the next moment against Indiana.
No. 4 Texas A&M (4-0, SEC champion)
This is a provisional pick, but keep in mind Texas A&M was in the SEC championship game hunt last year up until the final week of the regular season under Mike Elko. The Aggies stayed unbeaten with a 16-10 victory against Auburn. Le'Veon Moss (21-139, TD) led an offense that moved the ball but couldn't quite finish drives. Texas A&M totaled 207 rushing yards and limited the Tigers to 155 total yards. Texas A&M's grind continues against Mississippi State in Week 6.
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Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 6 of the college football season:
No. 12 Memphis (5-0, American champion) at No. 5 Texas (3-1, SEC at-large)
For all the criticism, Arch Manning averages 222 passing yards per game with eight TDs and three interceptions. Now, the pressure ratchets up in SEC play. The Longhorns allow 7.8 points per game heading into a Week 6 matchup at Florida. Memphis scored 31 fourth-quarter points to break open a 55-26 victory against FAU. Brendon Lewis (13 of 19, 196 yards, 2 TDs) had four total TDs. Gregory Desosiers (19-204, 3 TDs) had a monster game on the ground.
No. 11 Georgia (3-1, SEC at-large) at No. 6 Ole Miss (5-0, SEC at-large)
This might seem like too far of a fall for Georgia, but the 33-game home-winning streak is over, and they almost lost at Tennessee. Kirby Smart has work to do heading into Week 6 against Kentucky. The Bulldogs had 227 rushing yards against Alabama and still lost. Trinidad Chambliss (23 of 39, 314 yards, TD, INT) a Heisman candidate? The Rebels beat LSU 24-19 in a statement victory for Lane Kiffin. Chambliss enjoyed his third straight 300-yard game, and he added 71 rushing yards in tandem with Kyren Lacy (23-87, TD). The Rebels have a bye week before a Week 6 matchup against Washington State.
MORE: Inside Kirby Smart's troubles with Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (4-0, Big 12 champion) vs. No. 7 Penn State (3-1, Big Ten at-large)
The Red Raiders remain our Big 12 automatic bid. Texas Tech averages 52 points per game – which isn't a surprise. A defense that allows 11.2 ppg. with linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (28 tackles, 2 TFL) has been a game-changer. Penn State lost yet another top-10 matchup under James Franklin despite a valiant fourth-quarter comeback from Drew Allar (14 of 25, 137 yards, 2 TDs, INT) in double overtime. Penn State should not be penalized too much, but they still have matchups against Ohio State (Nov. 1) and Indiana (Nov. 8). The Nittany Lions need to get at least a split in those games.
BENDER: James Franklin, Drew Allar own PSU's continued frustration
No. 9 Indiana (5-0, Big Ten at-large) vs. No. 8 Alabama (3-1, SEC at-large)
Alabama's back, and keep in mind the Florida State loss was in non-conference play. The Crimson Tide still don't have a conference loss, and Kalen DeBoer got the signature road victory at Georgia. Ty Simpson (24 of 38, 276 yards, 2 TDs) has turned it on, and imagine the buildup for this first-mound matchup. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza hit Elijah Saratt for a 49-yard TD pass with 1:28 remaining, and the Hoosiers escaped with a 20-13 victory at Iowa. The Hoosiers finished off a second straight unbeaten September under Curt Cignetti, and they are looking very much the part of a playoff team. Road tests at Oregon (Oct. 11) and Penn State (Nov. 8) will tell the tale.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Oklahoma (4-0)
Remember, the committee does take into account injuries. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer (hand) – arguably the "September Heisman" winner – underwent a successful hand surgery on the bye week. Oklahoma faces Kent State in Week 6 – so Michael Hawkins Jr. will be in the spotlight. Mateer's status will be a constant topic ahead of the Red River Rivalry against Texas on Oct. 11.
LSU (4-1)
The Tigers fall hard after the loss to the Rebels. The offense had just 57 rushing yards without Caden Durham, and Garrett Nussmeier (21 of 34, 197 yards, TD, INT) struggled in the second half. The defense is still good enough to lead a CFP run, but Brian Kelly will have to figure out this offense heading into the rest of the SEC grind.
MORE: Lane Kiffin trolls LSU, Whit Weeks after big win
Iowa State (5-0)
The Cyclones are still unbeaten in Big 12 play after a dominant 39-14 victory against Arizona. Rocco Becht (14 of 20, 243 yards, INT) had three rushing TDs. The defense allows just 14.2 points per game. Could the Big 12 benefit from the SEC mashup? If Matt Campbell keeps this unbeaten and on a crash course with Texas Tech, two bids are possible.
Georgia Tech (5-0)
Florida State's loss opens the door for Georgia Tech as a second ACC playoff team. The Yellow Jackets escaped Wake Forest with a 30-29 overtime victory – albeit in controversial fashion. Haynes King (28 of 42, 243 yards, TD) compiled 106 rushing yards and two TDs. King averages 18.3 carries per game with three 100-yard games on the ground. The Yellow Jackets have a bye week.
Vanderbilt (5-0)
The Commodores are creeping closer with each week. Vanderbilt beat Utah State 55-35 – part of a two-week stretch where the Commodores averaged 62.5 points per game. Diego Pavia totaled 321 passing yards, 79 rushing yards and six total TDs against the Aggies in Week 5. Will he lead Vanderbilt to another upset against Alabama in Week 6?
Tennessee (4-1)
Tennessee remains in the mix of SEC contenders. The Volunteers survived a 41-34 overtime thriller at Mississippi State. DeSean Bishop scored a 25-yard TD run, and Tennessee's defense came up with the huge stop afterward. Joey Aguilar (24 of 40, 335 yards, TD, 2 INTs) has 300-plus passing yards in his first two SEC starts.