At the start of August, the WNBA MVP race appeared to be over. The Minnesota Lynx had the best record in the league, and star forward Napheesa Collier was barreling toward MVP honors as the league's top scorer. In Las Vegas, A'ja Wilson was enjoying another standout individual season, but the Aces were a .500 team, average across the board.
But one game changed everything. On Aug. 2, the Lynx beat the Aces by 58 points in Las Vegas, and Collier suffered a right ankle sprain that cost her seven games. Wilson stayed on the court, and the Aces haven't lost since; entering Tuesday's regular-season home finale against the Chicago Sky, Vegas has won 14 games in a row and has the inside track on the #2 seed in the playoffs.
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Collier's injury, and the Lynx's continued excellence in spite of it, only bolstered Wilson's claim to become the WNBA's first four-time MVP. On-off data for both Wilson and Collier also demonstrates how important the All-Star frontcourt players are for their teams -- but in Wilson's case, the difference is staggering.
According to Basketball Reference data, the Aces outscore opponents by 28.6 points per 100 possessions when Wilson is on the floor. Las Vegas' offensive efficiency plummets when Wilson is not on the court, from 111.8 points per 100 possessions to 92.6.
Minnesota's superior depth enabled the Lynx to weather the storm of Collier's injury. The Lynx are outscoring opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions when Collier is on the court versus when she is not, and Minnesota has long clinched the best record in the WNBA this season.
In most other seasons, Collier's scoring ability and elite defending as the leader of the WNBA's best team would be enough for her to win MVP. But Wilson's late momentum -- especially as she now leads Collier in the scoring race -- may prove too difficult to stop.
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