And then there were seven.
We headed into last week with eight teams that appeared to be at the front and center of the national championship picture. Then Friday night happened. The unranked Orange [CA] Lutheran Lancers upset the SN No. 3 St. John Bosco [Bellflower, CA] Braves, and the unranked Santa Margarita [Rancho Santa Margarita, CA] Eagles took down the SN No. 11 Sierra Canyon [Chatsworth, CA] Trailblazers.
And just like that, two of the eight frontrunners on our list of national title contenders were gone on the first night of California's postseason. Orange Lutheran's win, in particular, underscored just how deep California's field of playoff teams really is, and it leads to one other minor tweak to Scenario #4. We mentioned last week that Mater Dei still had a narrow path to the national title if all the teams in the Top 3 scenarios lost and the Monarchs went on to win a California state championship. That scenario involved Mater Dei then being compared to IMG Academy.
Now, with St. John Bosco and Sierra Canyon out of the way, Mater Dei's path potentially has cleared out a bit. That's not to say it's easy or even likely as Mater Dei's two losses this season are to the SN No. 3 Centennial [Corona, CA] Huskies and the current SN No. 25 Santa Margarita Eagles who rejoined the rankings this week after their upset over Sierra Canyon. Mater Dei plays Centennial in a rematch this Friday night and could potentially meet Santa Margarita again next week.
Mater Dei will be motivated to avenge those losses just as St. John Bosco would have been in a potential rematch with the Monarchs next week. And with their talent, Mater Dei might ultimately prove to be the best team in the Golden State, yet. If they were to win out, they'd at least have a resume worth considering in that fourth scenario, and we break down below why it might, even with two losses, be a better resume than an undefeated IMG Academy.
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AllSportsPeople High School National Championship Picture
All of our seven remaining contenders hail from the "Big 4" high school football states of California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. We have attempted to rank the contenders in the order in which they control their own destiny, so to speak, which isn't to say it is easy or even likely. It's just an attempt to put teams in an order where they would rank if they won out. In other words, which teams control their own destiny, and which teams need help?
This is only an analysis of where things stand today as we continue to move forward through the postseason. It's not a guarantee of any team's position, even if the scenarios unfold as described below. The manner in which games and outcomes are determined will still play a role in SN's final selection process, but this represents an attempt to sort out where things stand as we head deeper into high school football's postseason and begin to sort out which team is most deserving of the title of AllSportsPeople High School Football National Champion.
Scenario No. 1: An undefeated Georgia Class 6A State Champion
SN No. 2 Grayson [Loganville, GA] Rams (11-0) OR
SN No. 5 Buford [GA] Wolves (11-0)
What needs to happen for this scenario to take effect: Either current No. 2 Grayson or current No. 6 Buford needs to win out.
Georgia's two frontrunners got the postseason started with convincing wins last week as Grayson defeated the Norcross [GA] Blue Devils, 44-7, and Buford shut out the Richmond Hill [GA] Wildcats, 45-0. That brings us one step closer to a potential meeting between the two Peach State powers in Georgia's GHSA Class 6A title game which will take place just under a month from now on December 15.
Grayson is still ranked No. 2 in AllSportsPeople High School Football Top 25, and Buford is up a notch to No. 5 following former No. 3 St. John Bosco's loss to Orange Lutheran. Both teams will likely continue to move up in the weeks to come as long as they keep winning, and Georgia's Class 6A state championship game in this scenario would serve as a de facto national championship game.
Key Potential Games/Resume Builders
- Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 17 Carrollton Trojans vs. SN No. 2 Grayson Rams
- Monday, 12/15/2025 — SN No. 2 Grayson Rams vs. SN No. 5 Buford Wolves
Scenario No. 2: Centennial [Corona, CA] Huskies (10-1)
What needs to happen for this scenario to take effect: Centennial needs to win out and have both Buford and Grayson lose.
Current SN No. 3 Centennial shared this spot with California's other Southern Section frontrunners last week, but they hold this position on their own now that St. John Bosco and Sierra Canyon have been eliminated.
Key Potential Games/Resume Builders
- Friday, 11/21/2025 — SN No. 3 Centennial Huskies vs. SN No. 7 Mater Dei Monarchs
- Friday, 12/12/2025 — SN No. 3 Centennial Huskies vs. Northern California Champion in State Championship Bowl Game
Scenario No. 3: An undefeated Texas Class 6A Division I or Division II champion
SN No. 7 Southlake [TX] Carroll Dragons (11-0) OR
SN No. 12 Allen [TX] Eagles (11-0)
What needs to happen for this scenario to be in effect: The two Texas frontrunners would need to win out while also likely needing Grayson and Buford to lose in Georgia's playoffs and Centennial to lose in California's postseason.
Allen and Southlake Carroll entered last week needing both the Georgia frontrunners to lose along with the trio of California pacesetters. Two of those California teams did, in fact, lose last week so this scenario, while still unlikely, is suddenly a little closer to taking effect.
Key Potential Games/Resume Builders
- Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons vs. No. 39 Prosper [TX] Eagles
- Friday, 11/28/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. Permian [Odessa, TX] Wildcats
- Friday, 12/5/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons vs. Guyer [Denton, TX] Wildcats
- Friday, 12/5/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. Coppell [TX] Cowboys
- Friday, 12/5/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons vs. No. 46 DeSoto [TX] Eagles
- Friday, 12/12/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. SN No. 18 Duncanville [TX] Panthers
- Friday, 12/19/2025 — SN No. 7 Southlake Carroll Dragons in Class 6A Division II championship game
- Friday, 12/19/2025 — SN No. 12 Allen Eagles vs. No. 37 (tie) Lake Travis [Austin, TX] Cavaliers
Scenario No. 4: SN No. 1 IMG Academy [Bradenton, FL] Ascenders (9-0) or SN No. 7 Mater Dei [Santa Ana, CA] Monarchs (8-2)
What needs to happen for this scenario to be in effect: IMG Academy and Mater Dei would need both Buford and Grayson to lose in Georgia along with Centennial in California and both Allen and Southlake Carroll in Texas.
That's a total of five teams that would need to fall in the weeks to come to keep IMG Academy and Mater Dei firmly in the national title conversation, and then we'd have to compare the two resumes. While IMG is undefeated, they've yet to record any wins against teams ranked in our Top 25 while Mater Dei has wins over three teams currently ranked in SN's Top 10 at the time including St. Thomas Aquinas, Bishop Gorman, and St. John Bosco – the last two of which were ranked No. 1. Additionally, for this scenario to take effect, Mater Dei would have to beat current SN No. 3 Centennial this weekend before beating the winner of Orange Lutheran-Santa Margarita next week – both of which are currently ranked in the SN Composite Rankings.
Suffice it to say, even with two losses, Mater Dei's resume would be significant in this scenario, and IMG's lack of really big wins would be underscored by the fact that they also canceled their season finale against the No. 4 St. Frances Academy Panthers – a team that might have given them the win they needed to clinch a national title.
On the outside looking in
The following teams are also ranked in the Top 10, and in some cases, they are ranked above teams that are listed in the national title picture above. But due to past results and future matchups, the following three teams just don't have a viable path at the moment to a national championship.
SN No. 4 St. Frances Academy [Baltimore, MD] Panthers (8-1)
Through no fault of their own, the Panthers were essentially eliminated from consideration for the title of AllSportsPeople High School Football National Champion when current SN No. 1 IMG Academy canceled its game against the Panthers in the regular-season finale for both teams.
The problem is this – the Panthers lost at current SN No. 3 St. John Bosco back on September 5 in a hardfought 21-14 decision. To move ahead of the Braves, they needed them to lose – which they did last Friday night. Unfortunately, Bosco's loss was to a 2-8 Orange Lutheran squad, and there's just no justification to move this St. Frances Academy team up ahead of some of the other teams ranked above them, including undefeated IMG Academy which played many of the same opponents that were on St. Frances's schedule.
SN No. 8 St. Thomas Aquinas [Fort Lauderdale, FL] Raiders (9-1)
St. Thomas Aquinas is in a catch-22 similar to St. Frances Academy's quandary. That is, their only loss is to No. 7 Mater Dei which has two losses of its own. They would need Mater Dei to keep winning to help lift them up the rankings, but of course, they would also need Mater Dei to lose at some point to get back ahead of them. And that would mean they lost to a Mater Dei team that couldn't win three games on its own schedule, further diminishing the Raiders' resume.
In the end, with so many other options ahead of them, there just isn't a viable path forward for St. Thomas Aquinas.
SN No. 9 Bishop Gorman [Las Vegas, NV] Gaels
That brings us to the final team ranked above two of our eight frontrunners.
The Gaels' were the No. 1 team in the country when they lost to Mater Dei, 27-24, back on September 19. There's no reason to believe they wouldn't still be No. 1, especially considering the Monarchs' win over St. John Bosco two weeks ago in the regular-season finale.
Considering that the Gaels have the easiest playoff path of any of the other teams ranked above them that participate in their state association's postseason, the four points Bishop Gorman needed to turn that game into a win will likely be the difference between winning a state championship and a national championship.
That easy playoff path, however, makes one thing certain – the Gaels, who will play for Nevada's NIAA Open Division state championship next Tuesday night, just don't have the resume to be the national champions this year.
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- Georgia 2025 playoff brackets (6A/5A/4A)
- Louisiana 2025 playoff brackets (Division I/II)
- Oklahoma 2025 playoff brackets (6A/5A/4A)
- Texas 2025 playoff brackets (6A/5A/4A)