Can USA make it out of Group D at 2026 World Cup? Predictions for USMNT to qualify with Paraguay, Australia

JUMP TO:

• USA drawn into Group D at the 2026 World Cup
• World Cup Group D teams overview
• Odds to win Group D and who can advance
• Can the USA make it out of Group D and qualify for the knockout stage?

On December 5, the USMNT learned its pathway to success at the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the draw selected all group stage participants and set the bracket for next summer's competition.

The United States were given an extremely soft draw, given arguably the easiest collection of three opponents in the group stage as well as a potentially friendly placement in the knockout bracket.

However, regardless of opponents, the pressure will be ramped up at a World Cup on home soil and the U.S. Players will know that every second there is the chance to become either a hero or a scapegoat.

AllSportsPeople breaks down Group D where the United States will begin their push for glory, and how they could fare amongst the other three teams they were drawn against.

MORE USA WORLD CUP NEWS:

• Everything to know about USA's group
• What is USMNT's FIFA ranking?
• Has USA ever hosted a World Cup?
• DeCOURCY: Bloated World Cup draw should serve as warning

USA drawn into Group D for 2026 FIFA World Cup

The United States was pre-drawn into Group D at the World Cup. All three host nations were given special positioning from Pot 1 before the draw itself, and slotted into a group ahead of time as is FIFA tradition.

During the draw on December 5, the remaining three teams were randomly selected, and U.S. Fans have to feel very good about how things turned out.

From Pot 2, they drew Australia, whom the U.S. Recently defeated 2-1 in October 2025 during a friendly on home soil, a match in which the USMNT controlled most of the way. They also drew South American nation Paraguay from Pot 3, another team the U.S. Recently topped by a 2-1 score during a friendly back in mid-November.

Finally, from Pot 4, Group D was given a to-be-determined UEFA qualifier from Path C, which can be either Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo. Turkey would present a challenge, as the U.S. Lost to them back in June 2-1 in a friendly during which they were well beaten, but the other three would be quite kind.

World Cup Group D teams

United States (USA)

As the main hosts of the World Cup, the pressure will be on this United States team to carry the sport forward in this country, in the hopes of establishing itself amongst the premiere footballing nations in the world.

USMNT fans have dreams of being considered one of the best national teams in the world, and while they understand that is a decades-long process, this opportunity to take a leap in that regard cannot be passed up.

After being eliminated in the group stage of the 2024 Copa America, U.S. Soccer fired Gregg Berhalter and unloaded a record investment into hiring Mauricio Pochettino as head coach knowing they cannot accept failure in 2026.

The national team is anchored by Christian Pulisic, who is undoubtedly the most talented player in USMNT history. The presence of Chris Richards, Weston McKennie, and Antonee Robinson makes this U.S. Squad the strongest ever, but they have to prove they can reach new heights on the field before this generation can be anointed as the greatest the national team has had.

As it has been for years, the benchmark for the USMNT at the World Cup has always been reaching the quarterfinals. They have only done so once in the modern history of the tournament, in 2002, when they beat Mexico in the Round of 16. As such, it stands that the United States men have never won a game against a non-CONCACAF opponent in the World Cup knockout stage. Reaching that level is the goal at this tournament, and anything less on home soil would be considered not only a disappointment, but a massive missed opportunity.

• Current FIFA world ranking: 14th
• Regional ranking: 1st (Concacaf)
• World Cup titles: 0
• World Cup appearances (last): 11 (2022)
• How qualified: Automatically (host)
• Coach: Mauricio Pochettino (ARG) since Sept 2024
• Key players: Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Antonee Robinson (Fulham), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace), Weston McKennie (Juventus)

MORE USMNT NEWS: USA World Cup roster predictions | Full schedule for USA before World Cup

Australia

For the sixth consecutive occasion, the Socceroos have reached the World Cup — but this time it was through direct qualification after making Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022 via dual playoffs. Tony Popovic’s team earned their spot in North America by finishing second in Group C in the third round of AFC qualifying, behind Japan but ahead of Saudi Arabia.

It’s been an incredible year for the green and gold. In mid-October, Australia and Norway were the only two nations to win every match in 2025 (of those with five or more games). However, since then, the Socceroos have crashed to three consecutive friendly defeats against USA, Venezuela and Colombia.

After sneaking into pot 2, Australia will be hoping for a kind group that will allow them to emulate their best World Cup result: Round of 16 finishes in 2006 and 2022. At both those World Cups, the Socceroos lost to eventual champions Italy (2006) and Argentina (2022) in spirited performances.

Keep an eye on the younger talent in the team with African-born attackers Nestory Irankunda and Mohamed Toure expected to feature prominently, with both likely to enhance their reputations during the tournament.

• Current FIFA world ranking: 26
• Regional ranking: 4th AFC
• World Cup titles: 0
• World Cup appearances (last): 6 (Qatar 2022)
• How qualified: AFC Third Round Group C runner-up: W5-L1-D4
• Coach: Tony Popovic (Australia) since September 2024
• Key player(s): Mat Ryan (Levante), Jackson Irvine (FC St Pauli), Nestory Irankunda (Watford)

Paraguay

South Africa 2010 was the last World Cup played by Paraguay. In 2026, under Gustavo Alfaro, a historic South American team like La Albirroja will be back in action. They secured the last direct ticket in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, but that hardly matters now: they will compete in the World Cup and seek to overcome the quarter-final barrier.

The qualifying road was not easy. Paraguay had to reinvent itself, adjust pieces, and go through critical moments, but it ended up finding stability thanks to a solid foundation and the emergence of new talents who complemented the experience of their leaders. Players such as Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso, Gustavo Gómez, and Ramón Sosa emerged as key figures in a team that regained its intensity, defensive solidity, and ability to compete on equal terms with any rival on the continent.

• Current FIFA world ranking: 39
• Regional ranking: 6th (CONMEBOL)
• World Cup titles: 0
• World Cup appearances (last): 8 (South Africa 2010)
• How qualified: 6th in South American qualifying: 7W-4L-7D
• Coach: Gustavo Alfaro (Argentina) since August 2024
• Key player(s): Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United), Julio Enciso (Strasbourg), Gustavo Gomez (Palmeiras)

UEFA playoff Path C winners

Path C of the UEFA playoffs consists of Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, and Kosovo.

Turkey and Slovakia are the seeded teams and therefore the hosts of their respective semifinals against Romania and Kosovo.

The two semifinal winners will contest the final, and the victors in that game will qualify for the World Cup.

Group D odds for 2026 World Cup

At this stage, the betting market believes the United States are the favorites to win Group D, and are extremely likely to reach the knockout stage in some manner.

That could change, however, depending on who qualifies from the UEFA pathway. Turkey making it through could be considered likely to contest for the top spot, given they beat the U.S. In a recent friendly.

Odds via DraftKings in USA, updated as of December 5, 2025.

Group D predictions for 2026 World Cup

The United States will be heavily favored to not only escape Group D to begin the 2026 World Cup, but to win the four-team pod altogether.

In the end, they should manage to win the group no matter who qualifies from the UEFA pathway.

Turkey would present a difficult challenge, but ranked 25th in the world on U.S. Soil, the hosts would still be confident in achieving a result. Their recent 2-1 loss to Turkey came in a match where many U.S. Regulars were missing, and a Gold Cup on the horizon.

At the end of the day, anything less than winning Group D would be disappointing, and would make it much more difficult to make a knockout stage run. Winning the group would give the U.S. A third-place qualifier in the Round of 32, while finishing second would match them up with another group runner-up.

Reaching the Round of 16 will be the minimum expectation for the USMNT at the 2026 World Cup, and a quarterfinal spot can be considered a good goal to shoot for.

USA World Cup predictions: How far can USMNT go in 2026?

If the United States succeeds in advancing to the knockout stage, they have a fascinating potential pathway through the bracket.

Winning their group would be absolutely vital for setting the USMNT up for success in the knockout stage.

Should the USMNT win Group D, they would be matched up against a third-place opponent from a group to be determined. Their potential opponent in this situation is impossible to predict, but we do know it would come from either groups B, E, F, I, or J depending on how the whole table shakes out.

In that scenario, if they advance to the Round of 16, it's highly likely they would face the Group G winner, which could theoretically end up being Belgium. This possible matchup would see the U.S. Look to avenge their heart-breaking Round of 16 defeat at the 2014 World Cup.

If they finish second in Group D and qualify to the knockout stage, the U.S. Would face the runner-up from Group G, which could end up being Iran, a geopolitically intriguing matchup. Winning that match would bring a possible meeting with the Group J winner, which could be defending champions Argentina.

Skating through via a third-place spot means it would be impossible to predict where they could land in the bracket, but it would guarantee a Round of 32 matchup against a group winner. Some possible opponents would be either the Group E winner (Germany?), the Group I winner (France?), or the Group K winner (Portugal?). All of those are daunting indeed and should be avoided at all costs.