Top of Premier League at Christmas: How often do leaders go on to win the title?

The festive season is often a time when Premier League fans get their fill of action, as the English top flight presses on while many other leagues take a holiday break.

With the litany of games played, significant movement in the title race is common, as teams jockey for position at the top of the table throughout the heavy-set schedule.

As the festive period comes right before the turn of the calendar year, many fans see Christmas Day as the perceived halfway point of the season, even if it technically is not quite at that point. In the 2025-26 season, teams will have played 17 matches when Christmas Day arrives, just one matchday before the official midway point.

So how well does the holiday table indicate who will win the Premier League title? Turns out, with half the season to go, it's right about where you'd expect.

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How often do Premier League leaders at Christmas win the title?

Teams to have won the Premier League title while leading on Christmas Day have gone on to win the title 51.5% of the time, topping the table at the end of the season in 17 of the 33 seasons.

Across the entire history of top flight football in English history, the leader on Christmas has won the title 44.4% of the time, happening on 56 of the 126 all-time seasons.

The lowest a team top of the table on Christmas has ever finished is sixth, where Aston Villa fell to in the 1998/99 season. Aside from that, no team has ever finished below fourth after being top of the table December 25.

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The team with the best record while leading on Christmas is Chelsea, who have led on five separate occasions, lifting the trophy on all five occasions. The club with the worst record while leading on Christmas is Liverpool, having topped the table on the holiday but failing to secure the title on five different occasions, the most of any English team.

The team to win the title the most after not topping the table on Christmas is Manchester United, who have done so on eight different occasions, but they have also been pipped for the title after leading on Christmas twice themselves. Man City have also come back to win the title five times, all coming in the five most recent times for it to happen.

How often has Arsenal won Premier League title while top on Christmas?

For the 2025-26 season, Arsenal sit at the top of the table, holding a narrow two-point advantage over second-placed Man City with 39 points through 17 matches.

While the overall league record for Christmas Day leaders winning the title is right on half, Arsenal have a woeful record in this regard.

The Gunners have been top of the table on Dec. 25 on four different occasions and have failed to win the title each and every time.

Even worse, if you expand the club's history beyond just the Premier League and include their entire top flight history, it gets even worse, having failed to win a single league title on seven occasions of being top of the league on Christmas. Outside of their four Premier League whiffs, they also did so three times in the old English First Division, coming in 1951-52, 1986-87 and 1989-90.

All three times Arsenal won the Premier League title, they were not top of the table on Christmas, with Manchester United top on two of those occasions, plus Newcastle once. In fact, Arsenal is the only Premier League team to win the title without being top of the table on Christmas at all.

However, there is hope. Teams to have a two-point lead on Christmas, which feels like a slim margin, have gone on to win the title on five of seven occasions. The only teams to fall short were Leeds in 1999/00 and Arsenal in 2002/03.

Yet, there's also reason to worry. Each of the last five times the Christmas leader has failed to win the title, Man City have been the ones to lift the trophy. Sure enough, if Arsenal look over their shoulders right now, there are Man City lurking once again.

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Arsenal top of the league on Christmas history

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