Mexico World Cup draw scenarios 2026: Best and worst case scenario group for El Tri

After taking a step back four years ago, Mexico hopes to return to being perennial World Cup knockout stage participants as they prepare for the 2026 FIFA tournament.

At Qatar 2022, El Tri were eliminated in the group stage for the first time in over 40 years, failing to reach the knockouts in embarrassing fashion.

Previously, Mexico had been eliminated in the Round of 16 at seven straight World Cup tournaments. While fans craved a breakthrough to the quarterfinals, they instead experienced a regression.

Now, as co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, Javier Aguirre and El Tri eye not only a return to their former status but also achieving the advancement they have long desired on the global stage.

As Mexico gets ready to find out their tournament path at the 2026 World Cup draw, AllSportsPeople looks at their ideal outcome as well as a few nightmare scenarios that could befall the CONCACAF side.

MORE: Complete breakdown of how the World Cup draw works

Best-case scenario for Mexico at World Cup draw

For the most part, the World Cup draw is quite evenly distributed from a competitive-balance standpoint across most of the four pots.

The biggest concern for all teams is drawing a group that includes a UEFA playoff qualifier from Pot 4, which creates a significantly more difficult pathway to the knockout stage. Particularly, teams will wish to avoid the UEFA qualifier from Path A, which could potentially end up being Italy, the 12th-ranked team in the world.

MORE: Breaking down the pots for the 2026 World Cup draw

In short, all positive outcomes for Mexico revolve around avoiding the UEFA playoff qualifiers.

One way of doing this is to just simply draw a true Pot 4 team from the Pot 4 candidates. That will be difficult, as there aren't many options for the Mexico, who cannot be drawn alongside other CONCACAF teams. As such, they cannot draw either Haiti or Curacao from Pot 4, leaving just four potential nations plus the two intercontinental playoff qualifiers outside of the four UEFA qualifiers.

Another avenue is by drawing two UEFA nations from Pot 2 and Pot 3, thereby eliminating the potential to draw a UEFA team from Pot 4 due to the draw regulations that no group may contain more than two European teams. Unfortunately, the only way to do that would be to draw either Norway or Scotland from Pot 3, which both pose a relative challenge for a team in their given section.

Here are some possible World Cup draw outcomes that would be favorable for Mexico:

Favorable outcome 1: Lowest-ranked teams

The following draw would put Mexico against the lowest-ranked potential opponents from each pot.

Favorable outcome 2: UEFA teams from Pot 2 and 3

The following outcome would be a favorable group construction should Mexico draw two UEFA qualifiers from Pots 2 and 3.

Favorable outcome 3: Intercontinental playoff participant

Here is a possible group construction that would work out well should Mexico draw one of the intercontinental playoff participants.

Worst-case scenario for Mexico at World Cup draw

Unquestionably, the worst possible result for Mexico would be to draw one of the UEFA qualifiers in Pot 4, particularly Path 1, which includes Italy.

That would essentially mean Mexico could end up with two Pot 2-worthy opponents, and nobody of a realistic Pot 4 standard.

Unfavorable outcome 1: Italy

This outcome is the likely the worst possibility for Mexico. They would potentially have Italy from Pot 4, plus two brutal opponents from Pots 2 and 3 to go along with it.

Unfavorable outcome 2: Another UEFA qualifier

While avoiding the possibility of Italy from Pot 4 will be a win regardless who else they end up with, the other UEFA playoff paths all present potential Pot 2-worthy or Pot 3-worthy qualifiers from Pot 4, an unenviable outcome.

Here's what another difficult potential group could look like if they snag one of the other UEFA playoff qualifiers. 

When is the World Cup draw 2026?

The FIFA World Cup draw for the 2026 tournament is being conducted in the United States on December 5, 2025 at 12 p.m. ET.

It will be held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.

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