Champions League predictions, scenarios this week: Predicting final league-phase standings and which teams go through

Kyle Bonn

Champions League predictions, scenarios this week: Predicting final league-phase standings and which teams go through image

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The new format of the UEFA Champions League has given rise to a new form of scoreboard watching that fans have begun to absorb on the final day of league-phase action.

With so many teams still with plenty to play for up and down the table, nearly every game has something at stake on matchday eight.

Europe's biggest clubs near the top of the standings are hoping to secure themselves a bye to the Round of 16 to avoid a potentially tricky knockout playoff, while those near the cut line at the bottom are simply looking to remain in the competition.

A top-eight spot secures direct passage to the Round of 16, while those in positions nine through 24 will contest a two-legged playoff round. Those who finish 25th and below are eliminated from Europe entirely.

AllSportsPeople brings you a look at where everyone stands heading into the final league-phase matchday, how the table looks, and what all the big clubs ned to secure various positions and avoid the risk of a European exit.

MORE: See the full Champions League league-phase standings here

Which teams have qualified for Champions League knockouts?

The following teams have already mathematically confirmed a place in the top eight of the league phase prior to matchday eight:

  • Arsenal
  • Bayern Munich

The following teams have already mathematically confirmed a place in the top 24 of the league phase prior to matchday eight:

  • Real Madrid
  • Liverpool
  • Tottenham
  • Paris Saint-Germain
  • Newcastle United
  • Chelsea
  • Barcelona
  • Sporting CP
  • Manchester City
  • Atletico Madrid
  • Atalanta
  • Inter Milan
  • Juventus

Which teams are already eliminated from the Champions League?

The following teams have been mathematically eliminated from the Champions League prior to matchday eight:

  • Kairat Almaty
  • Villarreal
  • Slavia Prague
  • Eintracht Frankfurt

Champions League predictions, scenarios this week

Liverpool

There are enough teams on 13 points that Liverpool are not quite safe in the top eight yet with their 15 points. A win over Qarabag would do the trick, but they will need to be careful as the Azerbaijani club drew with Chelsea earlier in the league phase. Even a draw should be enough for the Reds, but defeat would leave them vulnerable as a few clubs below them have a better goal differential.

Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Qarabag

Tottenham

Spurs are in a strong position and get to play one of the weaker sides in the league phase with nothing to play for. Their trip to Eintracht Frankfurt, a club already eliminated from the competition, will be a test for Thomas Frank to navigate, particularly given the number of absences from the Spurs squad. Should they win, Spurs are in a strong position to finish top eight. A draw, however, would leave them quite vulnerable given how many teams are just a point behind them. Defeat would likely doom Spurs to a knockout playoff matchup.

Prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt 2-3 Tottenham

PSG

The defending champions have left it very late to secure a bye to the next round, which was not an ideal circumstance as they host a strong Newcastle side to close out the league phase. This is a difficult match, and they need to win. Their strong goal differential will help, but as the first of eight clubs sitting on 13 points, there are a significant amount of sides just below who are chomping at the bit to overtake the Parisians should they drop points.

Prediction: PSG 2-0 Newcastle

Newcastle

Newcastle are in a very similar position to final-day opponents PSG, also with 13 points and the same goal differential, only back on goals scored. The Magpies can be thrilled to even be in the top-eight conversation, but it will feel moot if they can't finish the job. Unfortunately, to leave themselves in a good position for a bye to the Round of 16, they will almost certainly need to win at the Parc des Princes — anything less will likely see them left to the playoff-round wolves.

Prediction: PSG 2-0 Newcastle

Chelsea

Chelsea sit squarely on the fence of a Round of 16 bye heading into the final matchday, resting eighth on 13 points and a +6 goal differential. They face a difficult road visit to Antonio Conte's Napoli, but the Italian side is in the midst of a poor run of form, and the Blues can catch them at the right time. Chelsea may need to not only win, but improve their differential mark if they are to remain in the top eight, but much of that will depend on what happens around them. Anything but victory likely means dropping out of their advantageous position.

Prediction: Napoli 1-2 Chelsea

Barcelona

Barcelona will be surprised to find themselves outside the top eight coming into the final matchday, but they still have a strong chance to jump up. With Newcastle and PSG playing each other, meaning at least one — possibly both — are likely to fall out of the top eight, there will be spots available. As long as Barcelona take care of business against Copenhagen, and take the chance to run up the score to improve their goal differential, they will be fine.

Prediction: Barcelona 4-1 Copenhagen

Manchester City

In past years, goal differential was Manchester City's strong suit, but their +4 mark through seven matches has left them near the bottom of the logjam of clubs on 13 points. Their final-day matchup against Galatasaray isn't exactly a prime opportunity to improve that number, as they just focus on beating a quality opponent to climb the table into the top eight. City likely need a victory by multiple goals to have a chance at a knockout-round bye. Some chaos above them wouldn't hurt, either.

Prediction: Man City 1-1 Galatasaray

Bayer Leverkusen

One of the two more notable European clubs looking to avoid the cut, Bayer Leverkusen are in a perilous position with just nine points to leave them 20th in the standings. Their final-day match against Villarreal is no walk in the park either, as the Spanish club's status as already eliminated is a false flag. Villarreal have been one of the biggest underperformers in terms of expected goals in Europe this season, having played much better than their positioning would suggest. Leverkusen need to avoid an adverse result in this match, or they could find themselves without any more European football this season.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Villarreal

Napoli

Sitting below the cut line heading into the final matchday of league-phase play, Napoli are in enormous trouble. Not only do they have to jump at least one club above them, but they also must do so with a daunting opponent coming to visit in Chelsea. Just coming off a 3-0 demolition at the hands of Juventus, this feels like a bridge too far for Napoli to cross.

Prediction: Napoli 1-2 Chelsea

Predicted league phase top eight

The following teams are projected to reach the top eight:

  • Arsenal
  • Bayern Munich
  • Real Madrid
  • Liverpool
  • Tottenham
  • Chelsea
  • Barcelona
  • Manchester City

Predicted league phase 9th to 24th

The following teams are projected to finish in a seeded knockout-playoff position, in spots nine through 16:

  • PSG
  • Newcastle
  • Sporting CP
  • Atletico Madrid
  • Atalanta
  • Inter Milan
  • Juventus
  • Borussia Dortmund

The following teams are projected to finish in an unseeded knockout-playoff position, in spots 17 through 24:

  • Galatasaray
  • Qarabag
  • Marseille
  • Bayer Leverkusen
  • Athletic Club
  • Olympiacos
  • Club Brugge
  • Bodo/Glimt

Predicted teams eliminated

The following teams are projected to finish below 24th position in the league phase and thus be eliminated from Europe:

  • Napoli
  • AS Monaco
  • PSV
  • Copenhagen
  • Benfica
  • Pafos
  • Union Saint-Gilloise
  • Ajax
  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Slavia Prague
  • Villarreal
  • Kairat Almaty