Math says Steelers vs. Ravens is by far biggest Week 14 game based on projected playoff chances

Micah Adams

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Math says Steelers vs. Ravens is by far biggest Week 14 game based on projected playoff chances image

Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

It's not hyperbole to suggest the AFC North will be decided on Sunday when the Steelers and Ravens clash in Baltimore.

Tied at 6-6 atop the division and two games up on the Bengals who suddenly have a pulse sparked by Joe Burrow's return, both the Steelers and Ravens desperately need a win on Sunday. It doesn't take analytics or a spreadsheet to come to that conclusion.

However, the spreadsheets do help contextualize just how vital the first of their two head-to-head matchups will be in determining who makes the playoffs. It's not do-or-die and both teams can walk away with a loss and still have a shot. Yet the math suggests that digging out even a one-game hole might be harder than you think.

While there are a number of factors at play, one of the easiest ways to gauge the importance of individual games heading into each comes via Sebastian Carl (follow @mrcaseb on X), an NFL modeling wiz who provides leverage data for every game.

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What does that mean in English? Based on 50,000 simulations which takes into account remaining schedules and tiebreakers among many other things, he calculates the chance every team has of making the playoffs based on a win or loss that week and independent of other results. 

Here are the Steelers' chances to make the playoffs:

  • With win: 69%
  • With loss: 17%

Here are the Ravens' chances to make the playoffs:

  • With win: 78%
  • With loss: 28%

That's a 50-point swing in either direction for both teams making it by far the most important game of the week in terms of what's at stake.

Here's the entire league-wide view for Week 14:

 

Steelers and Ravens playoff tiebreakers

The head-to-head won't be decided on Sunday as these teams are scheduled to meet Week 18 in Pittsburgh. The Ravens currently hold a tiebreaker over the Steelers by virtue of a better win percentage in common games which is the third tiebreaker after head-to-head and division record (both are currently 2-1).

MORE: Why Chiefs' loss would give result in 15% chance at postseason

Unfortunately for Ravens fans, the current Wild Card race does not work in their favor. Head-to-head losses against the Bills in Week 1, Chiefs in Week 4 and Texans in Week 5 — none of whom are likely to win their division — means the clearest path to the postseason is simply winning the division.

The Steelers are in a similar boat albeit with different teams. Pittsburgh beat the Colts but lost to the Chargers. Should it come down to conference record, Pittsburgh is currently up on Kansas City, tied with Buffalo and trailing the Colts, Jaguars and Texans. 

A win will certainly not guarantee anything beyond 18 for either team. But whoever emerges victorious from Baltimore on Sunday will be in prime AFC North position heading into the homestretch, regardless of whether the Bengals claw back into the hunt.

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