Kellen Moore’s first major decision as head coach of the New Orleans Saints was a whopper.
With the chance to hand pick his quarterback of the future, the first-year HC and former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator passed on the big-name prospects like Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart in favor of Louisville’s Tyler Shough.
Moore and the Saints made Shough the 40th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and the now 26-year-old rookie could soon be named New Orleans’ starter with question marks swirling around Derek Carr’s health and future with the team.
Shough was one of the more polarizing prospects in this year’s draft class, given most insiders and experts projected him as a fringe first-rounder despite his age and brutal injury history. Shough spent six years in college football and bounced around from Oregon, to Texas Tech, to finally Louisville in 2024.
Some NFL analysts — like former league executive Louis Riddick and draft guru Todd McShay — love the Saints’ decision to draft Shough. Others? Not so much. Count Pamela Maldonado, a sports betting analyst for ESPN, among the latter crowd.
“It made little sense,” Maldonado wrote, “especially for a team that needs long-term stability under center. Shough will be 26 with a laundry list of major injuries, including two separate collarbone breaks and a broken fibula from a hip-drop tackle. He holds the ball too long, invites pressure and doesn't get through reads fast enough — traits that only increase his risk of taking more hits.”
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While Maldonado makes some fair points, the Saints are really in a win-win situation here. Yes, New Orleans spent real draft capital on Shough, but you could argue that’s a fair gamble given the quality of this year’s quarterback class as a whole.
The hit rate on QBs drafted on Day 2 is a brutally low 12.8%, per PFF, so this pick should be viewed as nothing more than a lottery ticket. If Shough gets on the field in 2025 and shows promise running Moore’s system, the team can lengthen his leash. If he fails or continues to struggle with injuries, nothing’s stopping New Orleans from going back to the well in what is expected to be a more talent-rich and deeper QB class in 2026.
It’s fair to rip the Saints for spending a top 40 draft pick on a second-round flier, but given Carr’s uncertain situation, the Shough pick makes more sense than Maldonado lets on.
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