College football's lasting memory of Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson is a humbling one.
The face of Alabama's quarterfinals defeat to Indiana, Simpson left early with a rib injury and didn't return. Fodder for Fernando Mendoza's immaculate season, Alabama was dismantled 38-3, leaving Simpson's stock in flux.
There were rumors that Simpson would return and attempt to bring a championship back to Tuscaloosa. With Keelon Russell and Austin Mack waiting in the wings, the transfer portal seemed to be calling, too.
Instead, Simpson made the bold decision to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, testing the merits of a midseason hot streak in a weak quarterback class.
Why did Ty Simpson declare for the NFL Draft?
Simpson gained first-round hype early in the season for a handful of exceptional throws, intriguing intangibles and a unique ability to make plays under pressure. He looked like the best player on the field against Wisconsin, Vanderbilt and Missouri before adversity hit.
But when the Crimson Tide hit turbulence, Simpson was an undeniable part of the blame. He was wildly inefficient against South Carolina and Auburn, fell short against Oklahoma (in the regular season) and face-planted against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Simpson's rise was meteoric, soaring to astronomical heights before quickly falling to the wayside. His stock was seemingly out of Round 1, even after a promising comeback against Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Subsequently, his decision is worth unpacking. At Alabama or another football factory, Simpson would have made millions. However, there is no greater opportunity than getting a second contract in the NFL, and being a first-round pick is the fast track to nine figures.
There's a real chance that Simpson's hot streak was just that -- a blip on the radar. If he were to struggle at Alabama or Arizona State, his NFL Draft aspirations would quickly fade.
Simpson looks the part of a Day 2 quarterback and the third-best passer in this class. If Oregon's Dante Moore returns to school, a Simpson first-round selection would feel inevitable. Even as the presumed QB3, plenty of teams in the back half of Round 1 could roll the dice on Simpson's poise and processing.
The Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns all have picks in the playoff portion of the first round. The New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals could reasonably trade back into Round 1. Ultimately, it only takes one team to fall in love, and some team probably has him as a top-10 prospect, if not QB1.
MORE: Ty Simpson's meteoric rise battling first round precedent
Inexperience is clouding Simpson's profile. Only Anthony Richardson, Mitch Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins have come out with as few starts in recent years. For comparison's sake, Moore started five games at UCLA in 2023 before his 2025 ascension.
One-year starters are treacherous, and Simpson's age (23 years old) could suggest a limited runway for development. He's struggled to stretch the field, has generally shaky accuracy and has spent the best portion of his season running hot on unsustainable plays. Skepticism is justified, but that doesn't mean Simpson was wrong to declare.
If his camp thinks he can be a top-50 pick, any pressure from Alabama's ability to backfill would be enough to push Simpson into the NFL Draft. This declaration suggests that Simpson was caught between several timelines: an unsteady platform season, a class in need of a quarterback and an Alabama offense that might be better without him.
Simpson's ability to put the spotlight back on his best moments will be integral in making this decision a strong one come April.
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