SEC Championship Game sends Ty Simpson's 2026 NFL Draft stock spiraling

Anthony Licciardi

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SEC Championship Game sends Ty Simpson's 2026 NFL Draft stock spiraling image

Mondays are meant for overreacting to a weekend's worth of football. But as the dust settles after the Georgia Bulldogs' 28-7 win over the Alabama Crimson Tide, the hot takes haven't evaporated.

This isn't the same Alabama team without Nick Saban on the sideline, and quarterback Ty Simpson isn't the same prospect that he was early in the cycle.

Simpson completed half of his passes, took three sacks, and had as many touchdowns and interceptions. It was as ugly as the statistics suggest, and after a month of unsteady football, the SEC Championship Game felt like the nail in the coffin for Simpson's first-round aspirations.

What happened to Ty Simpson?

Simpson entered Saturday night staring down an elite Georgia defense with the chance to prove himself to NFL evaluators. Instead, he was limited to 212 ineffective yards and one touchdown.

The advanced metrics were even worse. He accumulated -0.17 EPA/Play, -7.33 EPA, and a 37% success rate (per Game on Paper) -- essentially the futility of Cam Ward's rookie season encapsulated into four bad quarters.

The football world, myself included, was ready to roll the dice on Simpson after dominant performances against Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. Part of that hot streak was running hot on unsustainable performances. He was operating out of his mind under pressure and made a handful of NFL-level throws when the margins were slimmest. 

In his first year as a starter, there was some fog of war. Was this an alien trait, like Caleb Williams' sack avoidance or Tua Tagovailoa's ability to throw the ball through a (very specific, first-read) keyhole? It seems far more likely now that Simpson regressed to the mean.

That process brings evaluators back to the biggest red flag in Simpson's profile: his experience. Despite being a redshirt junior, 2025 was Simpson's first season as a starter. He has just 13 starts to his name, and first-round quarterbacks with only one year in the driver's seat have a troubling history in the NFL.

MORE: Ty Simpson's meteoric rise battling first round precedent

Clearly, there is room for Simpson to improve, most notably downfield. 

The Alabama faithful have been patiently waiting for Simpson's deep ball to develop all year. They've run out of time. Per Pro Football Focus' charting, 36 quarterbacks have attempted 50 passes of 20+ yards in 2025. Simpson has the sixth-lowest percent of attempts downfield (13.3%). He ranks 20th in completion percentage (38.6%), 27th in yards per attempt (11.6), 28th in NFL passer rating (90.1), and 26th in PFF Passing Grade. 

Subsequently, Simpson has fallen from a midseason riser with a preternatural ability to play under pressure to an inconsistent passer who can't stretch the field. His stock has seemingly taken a similar turn.

We'll probably see Simpson mocked in the first round for a little while longer. Still, Simpson isn't an outlier athlete and isn't winning with his processing. An incomplete profile without the benefit of experience sounds more like the transfer portal's top passer than a top-10 pick, and it doesn't feel like a College Football Playoff performance will save him.

The arrow is firmly pointed down on Simpson's stock. With Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore leaving him behind, the 2027 NFL Draft seems like a safer option for the Crimson Tide quarterback.

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