The Rose Bowl is supposed to be weather-proof. Instead, heavy rains have hit the Pasadena grass, adding an element of uncertainty to a critical College Football Playoff contest.
When the Indiana Hoosiers do battle with the Alabama Crimson Tide, they'll do so in the wet, wacky weather that makes passing offenses shiver. For two teams with potential first-round quarterbacks, our collective expectations must be tempered.
Still, Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson have championship aspirations and an eye toward the professional ranks. The Rose Bowl has offered both passers a big test, and the ability to ace it could solidify each prospect's stock.
What does Fernando Mendoza have to prove?
For Mendoza and the top-ranked Hoosiers, the quarterfinals are supposed to be a stepping stone. But as Ohio State learned on Wednesday, nothing in this College Football Playoff can be assumed, even as touchdown favorites.
As things currently stand, Mendoza is all but locked into Round 1 and the consensus favorite to be the first player off the board in April. He won the Heisman, won the conference, and is two three wins away from college football immortality.
Subsequently, Mendoza has less on the line (for his NFL Draft stock) than Simpson, who has taken a ride up and down boards this autumn. He doesn't need to prove he can topple an elite defense after taking down the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game. Scoring more than 13 points -- even in suboptimal conditions -- would help eliminate any lingering concerns.
There were moments against Ohio State where an NFL pass rush got to Mendoza. Alabama isn't stocked with as many first-round picks, but Sunday players across the back seven could muddy the picture and make Mendoza hold onto the ball. Thursday offers him the opportunity to add credibility to the hype his intangibles have generated. Finding success on third-and-long will be imperative, testing his processing and decision-making on more translatable concepts.
A bad game shouldn't send Mendoza's stock spiraling. It could, however, dent the iron-clad case he's made for the first pick, opening the door for Oregon's Dante Moore to steal the spotlight. Expect Mendoza to keep things clean within structure, mitigating risk and ensuring Indiana can avoid a negative game script.
What does Ty Simpson need to prove?
Simpson began the year on Day 3 radars before a mid-season heater put him in the conversation for QB1.
In the weeks since, his play under pressure looks more like an unsustainable hot streak than a profile-defining trait. He wasn't particularly consistent, at times shouldering the blame for the bumps in Alabama's road to the CFP.
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That's par for the course for a one-year starter. Simpson's inexperience offers him a runway to development, but comes with significant risk, especially in Round 1. He has struggled to stretch the field, showcased scattershot accuracy, and taken more sacks than the Crimson Tide faithful would prefer.
Amid the turbulence, Simpson rebounded well against Oklahoma in the first round of the playoffs. His comeback win, complete with 232 yards and two touchdowns, was among the most impressive outings of his career. He overcame an aggressive, imposing Oklahoma defense, turning a 17-point deficit into fodder for an awesome story.
The job isn't done. Indiana is Alabama's toughest task yet, daring the Crimson Tide to mount another comeback. Simpson likely needs another statement game to re-emerge as a top-10 pick. With flashes of tight-window excellence, a knack for limiting turnovers, and experience operating under duress, the ingredients are present for an upset.
Simpson must prove that his best traits are sticky enough to translate on Sundays. Playing well against a defense with NFL talent, regardless of the adversity thrown his way, could have a significant impact on the 2026 NFL Draft.
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