Christmas Week delivers four days of football from a Thursday triple-header, to a Saturday doubleheader to the regular Sunday and Monday schedule.
The playoff push is on the AFC and NFC, but QB uncertainty is the early storyline of the week. The Lions are in a must-win situation on Christmas at Minnesota to stay in the NFC hunt, but JJ McCarthy (hand) suffered another injury in a Week 16 loss against the Giants.
Washington and Kansas City also have major question marks at QB heading into their Christmas matchups against Dallas and Denver, respectively.
On Saturday, Baltimore will travel to Green Bay. Lamar Jackson (back) and Jordan Love (concussion) each suffered injuries in Week 16. The Packers are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak, and the Ravens are now two games back in the AFC North.
Those are among the toughest games to pick this week as a result. There are marquee games on Sunday, with Philadelphia at Buffalo and Chicago at San Francisco. The Eagles-Bills game should be fantastic. Philadelphia won the last meeting 37-34 on Nov. 26, 2023.
Straight up: 155-84-1 (9-7 in Week 16)
Against the spread: 116-121-3 (9-7 in Week 16)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 17. Odds according to Caesars.
POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks edge Patriots for new No. 1; Packers fade for Week 17
NFL picks, predictions for Week 17
- Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Washington Commanders
Thursday, 1 p.m., Netflix
The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16 – and their defense needs improvement next season. Dallas has allowed 37.3 points in their last three games. Marcus Mariota (quad, hand) is battling injuries, which means either Josh Johnson or Sam Hartman could get the start.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Commanders 20
- Detroit Lions (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., Netflix
The Lions would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Vikings. Max Brosmer would get the start if McCarthy cannot play. Detroit is 3-4 S/U on the road this season, but the QB uncertainty in Minnesota is too much. Look for Detroit to keep its hopes alive behind the combination of Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Pick: Lions 28, Vikings 17
NFL STANDINGS: Updated AFC, NFC playoff pictures after Week 16
- Denver Broncos (-12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, 8:30 p.m., Prime Video
Second-year quarterback Chris Oladokun will get the start for the Chiefs against a Denver defense that has allowed 25.8 points per game in its last four games. The Chiefs are at home, which helps, but Oladokun took four sacks against the Titans. The Broncos will get back on track with the Week 18 matchup against the Chargers looming.
Pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 14
- Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-1)
MORE: How Travis Kelce's retirement decision gets easier with Chiefs' Mahomes-less offense
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., NFL Network
The Texans beat the Chargers 32-12 in the AFC Wild card matchup last season, but that was a road game for Los Angeles. The Chargers have allowed 15.8 points per game the last four weeks, a touch less than the Texans at 16.8 points per game. DeMeco Ryans and Jim Harbaugh love these games.
Pick: Chargers 20, Texans 17
MORE: What Texans' tight win over Raiders means for their playoff chances
- Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m., NFL Network
Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis could get the start here if Jackson and Love are out. Huntley started for the Ravens in a 31-30 loss to Green Bay in 2021. Baltimore has twice as many turnovers as Green Bay this season. The Packers find a way at home to bounce back after the deflating loss at Chicago.
Pick: Packers 23, Ravens 20
MORE: Latest news on Jordan Love after entering concussion protocol
- Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cardinals are 2-0 S/U in cross-country road trips this season – but they also are 2-3 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more. Joe Burrow has four TD passes in two of his last three starts. The Bengals are 2-5 S/U at home this season and have given up 24 or more points in all of those games.
Pick: Bengals 31, Cardinals 21
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Browns are 2-5 S/U at home, but they are 5-2 ATS. Myles Garrett is still seeking the sacks record, and it's a chance to play spoiler in the AFC North against the rival Steelers. Cleveland has won the last three home meetings, too. Pittsburgh has committed just one turnover in its last three games, however, and Aaron Rodgers is leading a playoff push. The Browns have alternated double-digit and heartbreaking losses the last four weeks.
Pick: Steelers 27, Browns, 13
- New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Saints have won three in a row and have allowed just 14.3 points per game with an improving team around rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, who has just one interception while taking 11 sacks during the streak. The Titans have won two of three, and Cam Ward has just one interception while taking three sacks. Look for Tennessee to keep that going at home.
Pick: Titans 24, Saints 23
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Jaguars are in position to win the AFC South. The Colts are trying to hang on here. Jacksonville hammered Indianapolis 36-19 in the first meeting, and Indianapolis is coming off a short week. Will Philip Rivers get another start here? Indianapolis has won six of the last seven home meetings in the series.
Pick: Jaguars 26, Colts 23
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Quinn Ewers is expected to remain the Dolphins' starter. He had two interceptions in his debut, and Miami failed to force a turnover for the second straight game. Tampa Bay needs a win to stay in the NFC South hunt. Baker Mayfield helps the Bucs break a three-game losing streak in a matchup between former Texas and Oklahoma QBs.
Pick: Buccaneers 29, Dolphins 17
- New England Patriots (-12.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Patriots beat the Jets 27-14 in Week 11. This is a huge number for a road game, but New York's two home blowout losses were to AFC East rivals Buffalo and Miami. New England will not mess around here under first-year coach Mike Vrabel – not with home-field advantage still on the table. Brady Cook has taken 17 sacks the last three weeks.
Pick: Patriots 31, Jets 13
MORE: Patriots clinch playoff spot for first time since 2021
- Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Panthers have the lead in the NFC South. The Seahawks can still get home-field advantage with a high-powered offense that is 6-1 S/U on the road and has scored 30 or more points four times. The Panthers are 5-2 S/U and 3-1 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more. They can keep this one close.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Panthers 25
- New York Giants (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
It's a battle of 2-13 teams, and the loser will be in position to get the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Raiders have not forced a turnover in three games, but Ashton Jeanty is coming off his second 100-yard game. The Giants rank 31st against the run at 150.9 yards per game.
Pick: Raiders 17, Giants 15
MORE: Updated draft order heading into Week 17
- Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Could this be a Super Bowl preview? The Bills have won four straight games, but the last three wins are by five points or less. Philadelphia rediscovered its running game last week with 207 rushing yards – including 132 yards from Saquon Barkley. The Eagles are 5-3 S/U on the road – but they have allowed more than 26 points one time this season.
Pick: Bills 27, Eagles 20
- Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
Is this a playoff preview? The Bears can move on step closer to the NFC North division championship – an incredible accomplishment under first-year coach Ben Johnson. The 49ers are 7-1 S/U when they have less than two turnovers, and Chicago is 1-4 S/U when it allows 28 points or more. Those are the magic numbers.
Pick: 49ers 28, Bears 23
- Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Atlanta Falcons
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Veteran Kirk Cousins has led the Falcons to back-to-back victories, and Bijan Robinson averages 171.5 total yards in those games. The Rams are coming off a deflating loss at Seattle, and they are 3-3 S/U on the road this season. The Falcons are 2-4 S/U at home.
Pick: Rams 27, Falcons 21