A quick scan of the NFL division leaders turns up one surprise that sticks out more than the rest – even more than the New England Patriots.
The Chicago Bears lead the NFC North with a 7-3 record heading into Sunday's game against AFC North division leader, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bears have strung together three straight one-score victories, and Aaron Rodgers (wrist) – who is 25-5 as a starter against Chicago – likely will miss the game. If that's not a sign of a charmed season, then what is?
First-year coach Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams have settled into a rhythm. Williams has no interceptions and has taken just four sacks through the winning streak. Chicago leads the NFL with a plus-16 turnover differential.
All that said, their seven wins are against teams with a combined record of 19-50-1 heading into Week 12. Beating the Steelers – with or without Rodgers – would be a statement heading into a season-ending stretch where they face the Philadelphia Eagles, the Green Bay Packers twice, the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. This is one Chicago needs before that stretch run.
Straight up: 105-58-1 (10-5 in Week 11)
Against the spread: 82-80-2 (8-7 in Week 11)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 12. Odds according to Caesars.
POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs, Lions, Chargers tumble; Broncos join Rams, Eagles in top tier for Week 12
NFL picks, predictions for Week 12
- Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Houston Texans
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Will C.J. Stroud (concussion) return for the Texans? Houston is 2-2 S/U at home, but those losses to Denver and Tampa Bay were by a combined total of four points. Buffalo is 2-2 S/U on the road. Josh Allen is coming off a six-TD performance. This is go-time for the Bills if they want to catch the Patriots in the AFC East.
Pick: Bills 28, Texans 17
MORE: Inside Josh Allen's incredible six-touchdown day vs. Buccaneers
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bears have not turned the ball over in those three wins – might be primed for something more, especially if they force two or more turnovers from Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. This is a tough pick, but we will stick with Chicago.
Pick: Bears 20, Steelers 19
- New England Patriots (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots are on an eight-game winning streak, and the Bengals have not forced a turnover in their last three losses. It's a bad defense made worse when Trey Hendrickson is not on the field. TreVeyon Henderson – a former Ohio State running back with four rushing TDs the last two weeks – could have a monster game here. The Pats are 3-0-1 ATS when favored by more than five points.
Pick: Patriots 30, Bengals 20
MORE: Patriots ride TreVeyon Henderson to Week 11 win vs. Jets
- New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Lions are 3-1 at home, and they won those games by an average margin of 23.3 points per game. Jameis Winston had two turnovers in the loss to the Packers in Week 12. Detroit will get on track in a convincing fashion here to get ready for the rematch with Green Bay on Thanksgiving.
Pick: Lions 31, Giants 16
MORE: How NFC North standings shake up after Lions' loss, Bears' win over Vikings
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings are in desperation mode here after a heartbreaking loss to the Bears. JJ McCarthy did not take a sack in the loss to Chicago, but he has struggled with accuracy (50.5%) the last three weeks. Four of Minnesota's five road games have been decided by one score. Will the Packers lose a third straight game at Lambeau Field?
Pick: Packers 23, Vikings 19
- Seattle Seahawks (-13) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Is this a potential emotional letdown spot for the Seahawks coming off the loss to the Rams? The Titans have lost consecutive one-score games, and the inability to run the football with a league-worst 78.9 rushing yards per game continues to be a problem. That's a lot of points for a road team to cover.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Titans 19
- Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Chiefs are.500 and face the Colts coming off a bye week. Kansas City is 0-5 S/U in one-score games this year – a bad omen against Indianapolis. The Colts are 3-2 S/U in one-score games. The Chiefs allow 100 rushing yards per game. How much will they give up to MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor? That is going to be the key at Arrowhead Stadium.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Colts 20
MORE: Chiefs are in serious trouble to miss playoffs after losing to Broncos
- New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Is this blowout waiting to happen? New York has actually played better on the road – where their three losses are by an average of seven points per game. It's just difficult to entertain an upset knowing the Jets have a passing attack that averages a league-worst 139.9 yards per game and benched Justin Fields. Lamar Jackson will get the Ravens' offense going against a Jets' defense that has forced one turnover all season.
Pick: Ravens 35, Jets 17
MORE: Why Jets are benching Justin Fields for Tyrod Taylor
- Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Will Shedeur Sanders start? That's one of the burning questions for two teams that rank in the bottom five in scoring offense. Myles Garrett — who had four sacks in Week 10 — and Maxx Crosby – who has heated up at home – are going to be key players in what should be an ugly matchup. The Raiders are 3-0 S/U against the Browns since moving to Las Vegas.
Pick: Raiders 20, Browns 19
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Cardinals have allowed an average of 42.5 points the last two weeks. Jacksonville has scored 29 or more points in its last three games and is coming off a blowout victory against the Chargers. Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten against a middle-of-the-pack Arizona run defense. This is the Jaguars' third West Coast trip this season – and they are 2-0 S/U.
Pick: Jaguars 26, Cardinals 21
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Keep doubting the Eagles at your own peril. Philadelphia allowed 16 total points in victories against the Packers and Lions. Defense is the identity of this team. Jalen Hurts is 1-3 S/U in four career starts at AT&T Stadium, but he should be able to control the game against Dallas' defense. The Eagles have a chance to make it four in a row in the series.
Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17
MORE: Eagles rely on defense to shut down Lions on 'Sunday Night Football'
- Atlanta Falcons (-1) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Saints had a bye week, and the Falcons are stuck in a six-game losing streak that has peaked with overtime losses each of the last two weeks against the Colts and Panthers. Tyler Shough has taken three sacks or less in his three starts, but the Saints are averaging just 10 points per game in those matchups. New Orleans has won the last three home meetings. Kirk Cousins breaks the streak.
Pick: Falcons 20, Saints 17
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
What can the Buccaneers do to slow down Matthew Stafford – who has 27 TDs, two interceptions and a 112.7 passer rating? Stafford has yet to throw an interception at home. Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS as an underdog of six points or more. Will Baker Mayfield help Tampa Bay avoid a third consecutive loss?
Pick: Rams 34, Buccaneers 28
MORE: Updated AFC, NFC standings after Week 11 results
- Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
The Panthers might be the most-interesting boom-or-bust team in the NFL right now. Carolina has won its last two road games at Green Bay and Atlanta. Brock Purdy was efficient in his return for the 49ers. San Francisco is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year, but Bryce Young continues to improve on the road.
Pick: 49ers 27, Panthers 21