TL;DR
- Four of six NFL Thanksgiving teams have a .500 record or better.
- Green Bay Packers face Detroit Lions in a critical NFC North matchup.
- Kansas City Chiefs play Dallas Cowboys in a highly anticipated game.
- Baltimore Ravens are favored against Cincinnati Bengals, with Joe Burrow possibly returning.
Four of the six teams scheduled for the NFL's Thanksgiving Day triple-header hold a.500 record or higher, and the sole team with a losing record could see their starting quarterback return for Week 13.
This holiday season might be one for the books. The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) are heading to Detroit to face the Lions (7-4) at 1 p.m. On Fox. Both the Packers and Lions are competing for second place, at least temporarily, behind the Chicago Bears in the NFC North standings. With all three teams vying for a spot in the NFC playoffs, this game is critical for both franchises.
Kansas City (6-5) faces Dallas (5-5-1) at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Chiefs haven't competed on Thanksgiving since 2006, marking a novel experience for veteran quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are fresh off a remarkable comeback victory against Philadelphia. Could this signal the beginning of a postseason surge?
Baltimore (6-5) and Cincinnati (3-8) are set to face off in the prime-time game at 8:20 p.m. ET. Lamar Jackson has the Ravens leading the AFC North once again. Joe Burrow, sidelined since Week 2 with a toe injury, might return for the Bengals.
Straight up: 116-61-1 (11-3 in Week 12)
Against the spread: 86-89-3 (4-9-1 in Week 12)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 13. Odds according to Caesars.
NFL selections, forecasts for Thanksgiving Day
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Thursday, 1 p.m., Fox
This is a high-stakes contest for both teams. Green Bay defeated Detroit 27-13 in their Week 1 matchup, which also marked Micah Parsons' first game. The Packers held the Lions to just 46 rushing yards and caused three turnovers during that win, and Green Bay has a 3-1-1 straight-up record away from home.
Regarding the Packers' offense, the question is whether Matt LaFleur will adopt a similar aggressive approach as he did during Green Bay's last Thanksgiving game against Detroit. The offense has been hampered by injuries to Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs, resulting in an average of 17.5 points over the past four weeks. Jordan Love's career passer rating against the Lions stands at 91.8.
Detroit has topped 200 rushing yards twice since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. The Lions will not abandon the run at home, and this is an opportunity for Jahmyr Gibbs – who has 400 rushing yards on 9.5 yards per carry in that stretch – to shine. Detroit is 12-9-1 S/U all time against Green Bay on Thanksgiving in the most-frequent classic holiday matchup.
Pick: Lions 28, Packers 20
MORE: Updated NFL power rankings for Week 13
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 p.m.., CBS/Paramount
This matchup is expected to draw the largest audience of the day. The Chiefs' road record stands at 1-4 straight up this season, and Patrick Mahomes has made an average of 45.5 pass attempts over the past two weeks. However, Kareem Hunt surpassed 100 rushing yards in the thrilling overtime win against the Colts, bringing Kansas City's record to.500.
The Chiefs have held opponents to under 100 rushing yards in five of their last six contests, suggesting the Cowboys will also face difficulties. Dak Prescott has thrown for 40 or more passes in three home matchups this season. Dallas would be well-suited for a high-scoring affair, and this game might become one if Mahomes and Prescott perform at their best.
Mahomes has never played on Thanksgiving with the Chiefs, and we expect him to take advantage of that spotlight against Dallas, which allows 252.3 passing yards per game. The Cowboys' run defense has been great the last two weeks, and that energy from last week's victory against Philadelphia should carry over. We're still picking Kansas City in what could be an instant classic.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 24
MORE: NFL Thanksgiving picks against the spread
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
What could lead to Burrow's potential return? A further defeat would guarantee the Bengals a losing season, and Cincinnati did experience a strong finish last year. This sets up an exciting comeback, especially since the Ravens have conceded only 13.4 points on average during their five-game winning streak.
Despite a 3-6 record as a starter versus the Ravens, Burrow boasts a 104.8 passer rating, throwing 21 touchdowns against five interceptions in those matchups. Reconnecting with Ja'Marr Chase, back from a one-game ban, should be swift; Chase amassed 264 yards and three touchdowns in Baltimore last year.
The Ravens are securing wins through hard effort, and it's expected that Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will perform well against Cincinnati's defense. This defense is currently ranked at the bottom of the NFL for both yards conceded (415.8) and points conceded (32.7). While Joe Burrow's comeback would elevate the game's quality, the Ravens are poised to extend their winning streak. Baltimore has emerged victorious in the last four matchups between these teams, though only one of those contests saw them win by a margin exceeding seven points.
Pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 24