The good NFL teams are getting a little more vulnerable. The bad teams are getting a little better.
Welcome to stretch toward midseason, where injuries and personnel changes start to make every team's identity more dynamic than static.
Week 6 brings more challenges for 2025 after some late-game drama changed many outcomes in Week 5. It's another minefield of numbers, but there are no bye weeks here. Here's diving into another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
POWER RANKINGS: Eagles, Bills fall behind 49ers, Lions; Patriots, Colts, Broncos leap for Week 6
Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
NFL picks against the spread for Week 6
Game of Midweek: Eagles (-7.5, 41.5 o/u) at Giants
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Eagles were jolted into a late-game wakeup call against the Broncos by not running enough to put away their visitors. On this short road trip, you can bet they will be relentless in letting Saquon Barkley exact revenge on the ground. Vic Fangio will scheme up some ways to get more takeaways from rookie Jaxson Dart, too.
Pick: Eagles win 34-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: How Eagles lost first game of season to Broncos
Game of the Week: Lions at Chiefs (-1, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Lions are becoming more of a complete team. Jared Goff can spread the ball around well based on the best passing matchups. The running game never lets them down. Aidan Hutchinson and Brian Branch are revving up the defense. The Chiefs are battling a touch-short week and don't have the same level of diversity and explosiveness around their quarterback, including a limited running game. Goff continues to be better on the road for a second straight Arrowhead win for Detroit.
Pick: Lions win 27-24.
Lock of the Week: Steelers (-5, 38 o/u) over Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Aaron Rodgers is 15-6 after bye weeks in his career. Mike Tomlin is 13-4. That's a bad 1-2 punch for Cleveland, which goes from London to Pittsburgh with their hosts coming off a week off. The Steelers found their pass rush again in Week 4 and although they can give up some on the ground to rookie Quinshon Judkins, they will get in the face of Dillon Gabriel often in his true first career road start.
Pick: Steelers win 23-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Dillon Gabriel proves he's a gamer in NFL debut loss to Vikings
Upset of the Week: 49ers (+3, 47.5 o/u) over Buccaneers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The 49ers and Buccaneers are keeping it done despite key injuries because of well-constructed offensive game plans with still some dominant skill players standing, led by Christian McCaffrey and Emeka Egbuka. Baker Mayfield is ready to duel anyone, anywhere, with whatever his weapons are. Mac Jones, however, goes up against the weaker defense of the two. Kyle Shanahan's team travels well across country and it shows here with the Bucs weary from traveling back from Seattle.
Pick: 49ers win 27-24.
Broncos (-7, 43.5 o/u) vs. Jets
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network (in London, England)
The Broncos should put themselves in position to win if they can just protect the ball and run it well thanks to the level of their defense against the pass with Nik Bonitto, Patrick Surtain II and others. That feels rough for Justin Fields. Even rougher is the fact he has to do a ton because the defense suddenly stinks more than expected for Aaron Glenn.
Pick: Broncos win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: NFL straight-up picks, predictions for Week 6
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Cardinals at Colts (-6, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Colts have been relentless putting teams away with Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman Jr., the focus four of their offensive corps. The Cardinals tend to be inconsistent and poorly coached at times by Jonathan Gannon. That means Shane Steichen is the victorious former Eagles coordinator here.
Pick: Colts win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Allen among NFL quarter-season favorites
Chargers (-5.5, 44.5 o/u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers have been sloppy of late with Justin Herbert and the passing game and now they have issues in the running game again. They need to be more consistent for Jim Harbaugh. This should be a get-right game all-around for the offense with the Dolphins' defense in the tank and Herbert ready to outduel 2020 draft mate Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Chargers win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Patriots (-3.5, 45 o/u) at Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots got their signature win with Drake Maye in Buffalo, maybe earlier than expected, so they need to avoid their letdown here against a scrappy Saints team on the road. Spencer Rattler and the rest of the young playmakers are getting better for Kellen Moore. But Josh McDaniels and Mike Vrabel are getting more from more talent.
Pick: Patriots win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: How Stefon Diggs led upset win for Patriots over former Bills team
Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys draw another defense against which they can stay aggressive with Dak Prescott and Javonte Williams. Rico Dowdle will be out for revenge against his former team, but this will be more about Bryce Young staying game at home. Unfortunately, Prescott is too hot at the moment for him to be "out-shot."
Pick: Cowboys win 31-24 and cover the spread.
MORE: Rico Dowdle enjoys career day in comeback win over Dolphins
Seahawks at Jaguars (pick 'em, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This is a long road trip for Seattle while Jacksonville hosts the game on a short week. The Seahawks will whiff by being forced into key turnovers from the Jaguars' swarming D vs. Sam Darnold, while the visitors have plenty of trouble with Trevor Lawrence's key versatile weapons, led by Travis Etienne Jr.
Pick: Jaguars win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Rams (-7.5, 45.5) at Ravens
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams present an even tougher offensive challenge for the Ravens' overwhelmed and shorthanded defense, which has little chance of slowing down Puak Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams boosting Matthew Stafford to another big game.
Pick: Rams win 31-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Why the Ravens' playoff chances are already over in 2025
Titans at Raiders (-6, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Raiders and Titans have struggled with turnovers and other game-changing mistakes. But Cam Ward got some confidence last week with a comeback win while Geno Smith looks closer to making sure Kenny Pickett gets a chance soon.
Pick: Raiders win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Who has thrown the most interceptions in NFL this season?
Bengals at Packers (-14, 44 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Packers' defense won't give slumping Jake Browning any breaks with Micah Parsons ready to go all out after him vs. a shaky offensive line. The Bengals can make it somewhat interesting, however, because of the matchups for the elite wide receivers. But eventually, Josh Jacobs and the running game shuts the door late.
Pick: Packers win 31-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Bills (-3.5, 48.5 o/u) at Falcons
Monday 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Bills won't be caught off guard in prime time again and the Falcons tend to be too up-and-down with their young offensive weapons to keep up with Josh Allen and James Cook on the indoor fast track.
Pick: Bills win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Bills finally snap 27-game turnover battle streak in loss to Pats
Bears at Commanders (-4, 50 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC
The Commanders are a different team overall with Jayden Daniels playing clean football and inspiring both offense and defense. He'll be up to dueling post-bye Caleb Williams, this time doing it more with help from the run and intermediate receivers vs. a desperation Hail Mary completion.
Pick: Commanders win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 5 record straight up: 6-7
- Week 5 record against the spread: 8-5
- 2025 season record straight up: 51-25
- 2025 season record against the spread: 37-39