TL;DR
- Lions face Packers with a predicted 30-24 win and cover.
- Chiefs are favored to beat Cowboys 30-24 and cover the spread.
- Ravens are predicted to win 31-24 against Bengals, failing to cover.
- Eagles are expected to defeat Bears 24-20 but not cover the spread.
Week 13 brings another lucky full slate of games, from four big games kicking off before Sunday on Thanksgiving Thursday and Black Friday. No teams are on bye, which means we are back to having 16 chances to make the right AllSportsPeople picks and predictions against the spread.
Last week's performance was a bit disappointing, but the best approach is to put it behind us and proceed with a new, bold prediction for professional football outcomes:
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
POWER RANKINGS: Rams take over at top as Eagles, Bills, Steelers drop; Bears, Cowboys rise for Week 13
NFL selections against the spread for Week 13
Thanksgiving Day Games
Packers at Lions (-3, 49 o/u)
Thursday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions' offense proved decisive against the Giants' offense, exploiting them through the air with significant contributions from Jahmyr Gibbs. While the Week 1 game in Green Bay was challenging for Jared Goff, he's expected to perform better with Gibbs and Amon St. Brown causing considerable disruption in the short-to-intermediate passing game, thereby alleviating pressure on Goff against Micah Parsons. Jordan Love's ground game will encounter increased difficulty, and his offensive options are somewhat restricted in comparison.
Pick: Lions win 30-24 and cover the spread.
Chiefs (-3.5, 51.1 o/u) at Cowboys
Thursday 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+
Patrick Mahomes performed adequately to secure a win against the Colts, but success hinged on contributions from special teams, the defense, and the rushing attack. He delivered crucial passes to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and other receivers in Week 12 and is eager to exploit advantageous cornerback matchups in Dallas. Kareem Hunt's involvement can also contribute balance. The Chiefs will demonstrate greater consistency in advancing the ball with Mahomes at the helm compared to the Cowboys with Dak Prescott, as Kansas City maintains its recently rediscovered ability to win close games.
Pick: Chiefs win 30-24 and cover the spread.
Bengals at Ravens (-7.5, 51.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Bengals are regaining Joe Burrow (toe) and Ja'Marr Chase (suspension), but could face further depletion with Tee Higgins in concussion protocol. Baltimore's defense, hampered by injuries against both the pass and run, will allow Cincy to remain competitive into the fourth quarter, at which point Derrick Henry's rushing will likely seal the victory.
Pick: Ravens win 31-24 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE NFL THANKSGIVING PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up
Black Friday Game
Bears at Eagles (-7, 44.5 o/u)
Friday 3 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Eagles missed an opportunity to gain ground in the NFC East during Week 12, but they vanished in the latter half. This unacceptable fade erased a solid first-half performance from Jalen Hurts. He must seize control of games more decisively, utilizing both his running and passing abilities more aggressively. This proactive approach will be crucial for outplaying a surging Caleb Williams in Philadelphia.
Pick: Eagles win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Bills (-3.5, 47.5 o/u) at Steelers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills have been up and down all season but with some time to reset from the rough game in Houston, they'll be ready to turn in one of their best performances as the combination of Josh Allen and James Cook is a tough rushing matchup for the Steelers. Whoever's at QB, Mason Rudolph or Aaron Rodgers, will get plenty of help from his running game, too, but Allen is better equipped to make big pass plays.
Pick: Bills win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Updated AFC, NFC standings after Week 12 results
Lock of the Week: Patriots (-7.5, 46.5 o/u) over Giants
Monday 8:!5 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Patriots have eased up slightly at home but will be more determined to secure a victory after close games against the Jets and Bengals. Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart offer the Giants two capable quarterbacks, each capable of making the game competitive through their arm or legs, respectively. However, the challenge lies in preventing Drake Maye's significant pass plays and their improved power running game, neither of which is likely to be effectively contained.
Pick: Patriots win 38-17 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Texans (+4, 44.5 o/u) over Colts
Sunday I p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans' defense gives the team a chance every week. They should focus on slowing down Jonathan Taylor early so they can get into strengths of pressure and coverage against Daniel Jones. Whoever's at QB will find room to move the ball with the young wide receivers vs. The Colts. Jones can be forced to game-changing giveaways.
Pick: Texans win 24-23
49ers (-6.5, 40.5 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Myles Garrett will be unleashed by The Browns' defense to pressure Brock Purdy, bypassing Trent Williams. Garrett's pass rush can limit Purdy's ability to throw deep to his wideouts and tight end George Kittle. However, Christian McCaffrey will be crucial for short passes in open space. Shedeur Sanders benefits significantly from facing a 49ers defense missing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. San Francisco will secure this win through substantial contributions from CMC and a couple of turnovers.
Pick: 49ers win 20-14 but fail to cover the spread.
Jaguars (-6.5, 42 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Jacksonville's veteran quarterback, the No. 1 overall selection Trevor Lawrence, is exhibiting some troubling performance, often struggling initially before showing flashes later. However, the team can rely more on its ground game and defense in Nashville. Meanwhile, Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward, also a No. 1 overall pick, continues to impress weekly despite a lack of healthy young offensive talent. Ward delivers another strong performance at home as Jacksonville manages to secure a road victory.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Saints at Dolphins (-6, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Mike McDaniel's offense is once again feeling relaxed and assured. He'll devise additional strategies for Tua Tagovailoa post-bye, though currently, De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle alone provide more impact than the Saints, whose most skilled receiver is now Chris Olave due to Alvin Kamara's injury. Miami's defense will continue its aggressive play against Tyler Shough, who faces increasingly challenging circumstances.
Pick: Dolphins win 24-14 and cover the spread.
Falcons (-2.5, 39.5 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Last season, Jeff Ulbrich served as the Jets' interim coach, and he has now returned to Atlanta to resume his defensive play-calling responsibilities. The Falcons possess the pass rush and secondary capabilities that could make this a challenging home game for Tyrod Taylor. Kirk Cousins will aim to impress the Jets for their starting QB position this season, bolstered by strong support from Bijan Robinson.
Pick: Falcons win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Cardinals at Buccaneers (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This resembles the typical contest between veteran backup quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett and Teddy Bridgewater, given that Baker Mayfield's shoulder status is uncertain for play, and fellow former top overall pick from Oklahoma, Kyler Murray, is sidelined. Both the Cardinals and Buccaneers have suffered significantly from injuries to their offensive playmakers, and the quarterbacks haven't been spared. Arizona has shown resilience with Brissett under center, though victories have been elusive. Bridgewater will aim to rely on the running game and benefit from a more motivated defense playing on their home turf.
Pick: Buccaneers win 20-17 and cover the spread.
Rams (-10, 46 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams face NFC divisional challenges but will dominate an outmatched and outcoached South team for the second consecutive week. Carolina's defense will struggle to cover both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, while also conceding significant yardage in the run game to Kyren Williams. The Rams' defense is expected to pressure Bryce Young and his backfield effectively, making for a difficult outing.
Pick: Rams win 34-14 and cover the spread.
Vikings at Seahawks (-9.5, 42 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings' offense is in dire straits, with second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy experiencing significant difficulties. This situation is compounded by the success of former starter Sam Darnold, who is performing exceptionally well for The Seattle Seahawks. Seattle's offense exhibits genuine balance and dynamism in this contest, with Darnold providing Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the kind of opportunities Justin Jefferson would have preferred to still receive.
Pick: Seahawks win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Raiders at Chargers (-9.5, 41 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Jim Harbaugh should have his team refocused after that Jaguars' road debacle before the bye. The Raiders' defense is falling apart and the offense just made a coordinator change from Chip Kelly. The explosiveness of the Chargers' weapons around Justin Herbert come through more with a needed big rushing effort at home.
Pick: Chargers win 30-17 and cover the spread.
Broncos (-6.5, 43.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Broncos are coming off a bye and going on a long road trip. The Commander were also off in Week 12 and hoping Jayden Daniels can return to spark them in a second-year QB duel with Bo Nix. Look for Washington's defense to play inspired to keep the team in it, Denver's defense will the typical bigger factor with the pass rush.
Pick: Broncos win 23-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 12 record straight up: 7-6
- Week 12 record against the spread: 4-9
- 2025 season record straight up: 114-61
- 2025 season record against the spread: 83-92