One benefit of college football's uncertain quarterbacking landscape is the opportunity for late-season risers. For every passer tumbling down boards, there's an under-the-radar prospect ready to take his place in the 2026 NFL Draft discourse.
Entering his second season with the USC Trojans, Jayden Maiava was largely ignored, written off as a 2027 prospect. All he's done since is lead the Big Ten in passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and expected points added.
Maiava is producing like a Heisman candidate. In a year where returning prospects made losing bets, his performance might push him into this class and, potentially, Round 1.
Jayden Maiava's strengths fit the modern NFL game
Maiava hasn't been one of the most productive passers in the country by accident. He has avoided turnovers well this season, and his turnover-worthy play rate has decreased each year. In an air-raid-adjacent offense, he's adept at finding completions, avoiding sacks, and challenging defenders 1-on-1 downfield.
To his credit, the flashes are frequent, and his capacity to create explosive plays in tight windows is enticing. At his best, he's operating with excellent touch and layering passes, changing his velocity with more nuance than many of his peers. Maiava is only a junior, but over 800 pass attempts is experience that bodes well for early production at the next level.
Moreover, Maiava does an excellent job of mitigating pressure. His feel for blindside rushers is impressive, and he is dense and athletic enough to break sacks. While not a direct comparison, there is some Caleb Williams in his game, particularly when under pressure.
There are Caleb Williamses everywhere for those with the eyes to see pic.twitter.com/jdIHW7zdIs
— Anthony Licciardi (@ALiccScouting) November 20, 2025
Maiava's pressure-to-sack rate is elite, and when forced out of structure, he does a good job of keeping his eyes downfield. This is amplified by the best part of Maiava's mechanics: a lightning-quick release. Similarly, he has an innate ability to reset his base under pressure to deliver an accurate ball.
Theoretically, this is a quarterback who can keep the offense on schedule and make plays out of structure. He adds a bit to the run game with his contact balance and adequate ability to scramble, too.
What's keeping Maiava out of Round 1?
For all the eccentric similarities to his predecessor, Maiava doesn't have the same tools. He isn't quite as athletic, limiting his upside as a scrambler. His short-area velocity is fine, but Williams' arm strength created windows other passers can't dream of testing. Maiava, despite his downfield flashes, isn't as potent.
This unfortunately manifests itself mechanically, where Maiava's lower half falls far behind the efficiency of his release. He frequently struggles to transfer weight effectively, and fringe-average arm strength leaves him out to dry. Subsequently, there's a limit to his deep ball, with an observable decline after 40 yards. Maiava doesn't always give himself a proper base within the pocket, and he isn't overly dangerous out of structure.
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I expect him to struggle throwing to his left at the next level, too, at times overstriding to get as much velocity as possible on far-hash throws. He visibly strains harder on some of these attempts.
His development will also require improved under-center footwork. That's a common hurdle to clear for many of these shotgun-bound prospects, but limited experience here and some unconventional dropbacks have me a little more concerned.
Intangibly, Maiava is a safe decision-maker who is willing to test man coverage aggressively. Still, getting through full-field progressions quickly can be elusive, and he isn't a very anticipatory thrower.
Maiava's NFL projection
There's a world in which Maiava is a rookie starter who plays well in Year 1. The underlying fundamentals are strong -- he avoids sacks and turnovers, creates big plays, and gets rid of the ball quickly within structure.
The tools are passable without being elite, and there's a chance his poise is the kind of alien trait that defines him, much like Lamar Jackson's in-pocket athleticism, Joe Burrow's pocket navigation, and Dak Prescott's pre-snap processing.
| Big-Time Throw% | Turnover-Worthy Play% | Pressure-to-Sack% | Time to Throw | EPA/DB | Success Rate |
| 7.0% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 2.94 | 0.51 | 55.6 |
Despite his limitations, Maiava has multiple years of experience, checks the production boxes, and has improved year-over-year. That might be enough to win a team over, and I wouldn't blame them.
Maiava currently has a second-round grade on my board, projecting like a below-average starter, albeit with above-average upside. I trust that his creativity and sack avoidance can buy him time in the NFL, and his proficiency as a quick game passer elevates his hypothetical floor. This is a fun prospect that I'm excited to see get Sunday opportunities, I'm not just sold I want to be the one making that bet in Round 1.
Even so, Maiava should punch his ticket to the 2026 NFL Draft. It will be difficult to improve upon his production next season (regardless of whether anything goes terribly wrong) and there is enough uncertainty in this class that the right fit could make him a first-round pick. After watching Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, and Cade Klubnik fumble that status in 2025, Maiava is poised to be the beneficiary in a questionable quarterback class.
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