Every decision is a bet. And every bet has a loser.
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar faced an uncertain NFL future after the 2024 season and gambled on the perks of Happy Valley. He would return, hoping to compete for a championship, improve his draft stock, and benefit from NIL in the process.
Snake eyes.
Penn State's season hit a new low on Saturday. The Nittany Lions followed their season-defining upset loss to UCLA with another flop against Northwestern. The losing streak hit three games, head coach James Franklin was fired, and Allar's platform season ended with a lower-leg injury.
Drew Allar is in trouble
This is a worst-case scenario for Allar. He entered the year with some first-round hype, a second-round grade on my board, and the chance to improve upon both. By virtue of his inconsistencies and, now, his injury, Allar had stagnated before Saturday's catastrophe.
He was clearly the second-best quarterback on the field when Oregon's Dante Moore came to Eugene. When Penn State lost to UCLA, Nico Iamaleava played better than him, too. Allar had yet to avoid the occasional inexcusable gaffe. Working through more difficult concepts has proven elusive, a signal that Allar hadn't necessarily grown since his junior season.
The consequences of his injury are two-fold. Allar is a height/weight/speed freak at quarterback who could hang his hat on elite physical tools, buoying his stock. There is development to unlock and incredible upside to inspire confidence. A 95th-percentile Allar outcome is comfortably a top-10 NFL quarterback. Barring a change in eligibility/redshirt rules, his college career will end with a left-tailed senior season.
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We don't know the specifics of Allar's injury. But hurting his left (plant) leg and immediately being ruled out for the season is a bad sign. If he can't generate quite as much power, or isn't as explosive in the pocket, or gives back some of the athleticism that makes him a dual-threat passer, the math changes.
A pocket-bound Allar is a concerning one. Now, he won't have the opportunity to prove himself against high-level Big Ten competition. Perhaps he won't have a true pre-draft circuit, either.
As for the 2026 NFL Draft, Allar's fall is undeniable. It is hard to justify Day 2 draft capital on an incomplete, injury-impacted profile. The quarterback class hasn't been spectacular through seven weeks of action, but there are plenty of bodies to push him down the board. At this point, how high Allar goes on Day 3 is purely a matter of how teams value his body of work and the likelihood that he can return to full strength. No point on Day 3 would be much of a surprise.
In the NIL era, college football's gambles are defined by its winners. Allar isn't one of them. The process behind his decision was justifiable, even commendable. And yet, in an unforgiving NFL Draft cycle, the arrow is firmly pointing down.
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