There's no doubt that Micah Parsons has been looking forward to this matchup since he was traded to Green Bay. Sunday Night Football marks Parsons return to Dallas, to face a Cowboys team that refused to pay him.
Parsons headlines our SNF Packers vs Cowboys props card, and not just due to the revenge narrative. The 26-year-old has been terrorizing enemy offensive lines so far this season, and the Dallas o-line is extremely vulnerable. I’m also targeting the Green Bay passing game as Matthew Golden and Jordan Love are both in eruption spots.
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Parsons Brings Prescott Down
Given how Parsons is playing, Jerry Jones must be beside himself. Entering the week, Parsons leads the NFL in pass rush wins with 17 and ranks second in QB pressures with 14. That’s despite being a part-time player in Weeks 1 and 2, but there will be no snap count limit for him in primetime.
Parsons has only turned two of his pressures into sacks, but given his prolific sack track record, we can expect that number to regress positively back to the mean. That’s bad news for the Dallas Cowboys, who’ve been leaving Dak Prescott out to dry. Dallas checks in with the second-lowest pass-blocking grade in the NFL this season, ahead of only the Rams.
Prescott has been under siege on 37% of his dropbacks, despite facing only one team with a top-14 pass rush. Only five teams generate more pressure than the Green Bay Packers, and I expect them to get to Prescott early and often, with Parsons leading the charge.
A Golden Homecoming
Parsons isn’t the only Packer having a homecoming this weekend, as former University of Texas star Matthew Golden returns to the Lone Star State. After a quiet first two games, Golden’s snap share and usage dramatically increased last week, thanks to an injury to Jayden Reed.
We can expect the uptick in playing time and volume to continue on Sunday Night Football, and there’s no better matchup for a wide receiver than this Cowboys secondary.
Dallas has surrendered a league-high 288 passing yards per game, and allowed the Eagles, Giants, and Bears to essentially double their season-long yards per completion average in their matchups. They momentarily gave Russell Wilson a pulse in Week 2, and may have saved Caleb Williams career last week.
The Cowboys have allowed five receivers in the last two weeks to clear 40 receiving yards, which is good news for Golden. Green Bay’s rookie receiver led the team in receiving yards in Week 3 versus the Browns, and ran a route on a season-high 84% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks.
All You Need is Love
Speaking of Love, I’m banking on him converting on at least a couple of deep shots against the porous Dallas secondary. That brings the over on 38.5 yards for his longest completion in play, as the Cowboys have been coughing up explosive passes left, right, and center.
Dallas has allowed 11 completions on 15 throws of 20+ yards downfield. That’s a completion rate of 73%, which is nearly double the league average (37%) on those types of passes. Love, meanwhile, has completed seven explosive passes already this season, and has an 84.3% completion percentage when kept clean.
His most likely target on those deep shots is Golden, so I don’t hate also targeting over 20.5 yards for the rookie’s longest reception. Golden has run a go route at a 27% clip this season, which is the seventh-highest mark in the NFL.
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