The 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs head to Jacksonville to take on the surprising 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars for the Monday Night Football game, with the Chiefs as slight, 3.5-point favorites. It looked like the sky was falling after the Chiefs 0-2 start, but they have now won two straight games and looked much better against the Ravens last week.
That said, the Jaguars are 3-1 under new head coach Liam Cohen and are playing at home tonight. For this article, we will detail the best player prop picks for Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football.
| Chiefs-Jaguars Props | Odds |
| Travis Etienne Over 9.5 Receiving Yards | -118 on BetMGM |
| Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 Receptions | +100 on FanDuel |
Etienne Jr. Gets Work Through the Air Tonight
This play is an example of a line that is simply too low that we are trying to take advantage of. Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over this number in 26 of his last 36 games overall, averaging over 20 receiving yards per game in this stretch. He has gone over in 20 of 28 games specifically with Trevor Lawrence, still averaging 21.5 receiving yards per game. Even last year, which was a very below-average season for Etienne, he went over this number in 5/8 games with Lawrence and in 10/15 games overall.
This year, he has only gone over in 2/4 games, but he cashed it in the first two before missing it the last two games, making this a great bounce-back opportunity. He ran for 124 yards last week on 19 carries but is unlikely to get that number of carries again this week against the Chiefs nor have that same level of success on the ground. The Chiefs have a very good run defense, but you can target the passing game against them.
Four of five RBs against the Chiefs have gone over their receiving yards number, including both Derrick Henry and Justice Hill last week. Hill did it on a broken play at the end of the game when it was already a blowout, but that still happened.
Alternatively, only two of five have hit their rushing prop over. So, in a game in which the Jaguars are probably going to need to pass a decent amount to keep up with a Chiefs offense that seems to have figured some things out, the Jaguars are probably going to be passing a decent amount and hopefully dump it off to Etienne Jr. a couple times.
Worthy Catches Records At least Five Receptions
Xavier Worthy was a late add to the injury report Sunday with ankle swelling once he arrived in Jacksonville, but reports are that it was pre-cautionary and that Worthy should play and be fine. For context, he was a full practice participant all week leading up to this game.
If he does play even limited snaps like we saw last week, this line has swung significantly too low on his receptions prop. It was -122 for the over 4.5 number before this news came out and is now offered at +100. With the workload Worthy has gotten in his one game this year, while also considering his role as the season ended last year, this is a great spot to back his over.
Last year, we saw Worthy get involved less in the deep game, which was not working, and more in the short passing game. Looking at his last nine games in which he played over 50% of the snaps (so taking out the game in which he got hurt), he hit 5+ receptions in all nine games. That includes last week against the Ravens when he was still working his way back from injury and played 59% of the snaps and still caught five balls on eight targets.
With Rashee Rice out, Worthy is still going to be the number one target for the Chiefs, and he should continue the success he had last week against the Ravens. While the Jaguars defense is good overall, but we have seen them get smoked by No. 1 receivers this year. Tet McMillan, Ja'Marr Chase, and Nico Collins have all gone over their receiving yards prop against the Jaguars, including two blowups. Chase had 165 yards and Collins had 104. Worthy is going off Monday night.