Arch Manning's NFL Draft decision means doubling down on Texas

Anthony Licciardi

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Arch Manning's NFL Draft decision means doubling down on Texas image

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning was always more likely to return to school than declare for the 2026 NFL Draft.

Late on Monday night, the football world got that confirmation.

Manning will be Texas's starting quarterback in 2026, thinning the herd of the current crop of quarterbacks and giving himself another chance to be a lottery pick in a future NFL Draft. After a season that thrust him into the spotlight and threatened his status as a first-round prospect, Manning is doubling down on the reasons he picked the Longhorns.

MORE: Why Arch Manning is returning to Texas for redshirt junior season

Arch Manning is staying in school

Texas offered Manning a strong supporting cast, a quarterback guru at head coach, a chance to compete for national titles in the SEC and the NIL money that comes with the burnt orange.

Of course, the Longhorns didn't make the College Football Playoff, but the story of Manning's season changes the narrative on his supporting cast. Texas will still send a handful of players to the NFL, especially on defense. But when Manning struggled against Ohio State in Week 1, he became the face of the Longhorns' loss. 

That wasn't necessarily fair. A season's worth of games has revealed an offensive line that severely regressed, a running back room that underperformed and a receiving corps that clearly felt the effects of losing players to the NFL.

With limited experience and a fairly demanding offense, Manning often operated from a disadvantage.

MORE: LaNorris Sellers' NFL Draft decision leaves more questions than answers

And yet, he held his own, rebounding from the Ohio State debacle with better performances in conference play, including ranked wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. He had long outplayed his statistical performances, and the flashes from his freshman season returned. Manning is a quality in-structure processor who has the tools to make plays outside of structure and the athleticism to survive in a new-age NFL. 

There were certainly bumps in the road. Manning's mechanics were so bad that they generated rumors about a potential shoulder injury. He failed to find a rhythm in any of Texas's three losses and wasn't one of college football's most productive passers. The hype train, justifiably, lost some steam. 

Even so, the glimpses of potential snuck through, and projecting Manning to be an eventual NFL starter never felt too difficult to envision. 

Manning had an outside shot at being the class's QB1, even after the emergence of Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. At the very least, several teams were bound to view him as a viable first-round prospect. But with the odds of a top-five selection slipping away and multiple years of eligibility remaining, Manning is making the choice most expected him to make.

Unlike South Carolina star LaNorris Sellers, Manning's decision narrows his range of outcomes. The profile of a one-year starter with limited production is questionable, regardless of the traits. Staying in school allows Manning to get crucial game reps — against elite competition — at a school that has the infrastructure to hone his talents. 

With minimal financial risk and the opportunity to do right by himself and his school, staying at Texas allows Manning to climb the college football mountain before starting the clock on his rookie contract. With the flashes he showcased in 2025 and the possibility for Texas to improve in the transfer portal, it is hard to argue with Manning's decision.

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