The Miami Dolphins are stuck between a rock and a very expensive hard place.
The Dolphins have decided to bench quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with three games left to play, and that signals he is likely on his way out in Miami.
The problem for the Dolphins is they won't be able to trade him, as no team will want to absorb any part of his massive $212 million contract.
That means Miami has to cut Tua, which will incur a historic dead-cap hit in 2026, rendering the team strapped for cap space this coming offseason.
This messy situation has ESPN's Bill Barnwell ranking the Dolphins' potential head coach opening as the second-worst out of eight possible job openings, with only the Las Vegas Raiders getting a worse ranking.
Trading him while eating the vast majority of that money is also an option, although there typically isn't strong interest in quarterbacks who get benched for seventh-round picks in mid-December. A new coach would have to either be thinking in line with what the Dolphins are planning with Tagovailoa or be convincing enough about fixing Tagovailoa to get ownership on board with returning him to the lineup in 2026. There's a good chance that 2026 is just a get-the-cap-right year for Miami, which would be a wasted season on what would appear to be a four-year clock for a new Dolphins coach.
On the three-to-four-year Ross timeline, a new coach would have to believe that they would be able to oversee the post-Tagovailoa era, acquire a new quarterback in the 2027 or 2028 drafts and then get multiple years to see that quarterback's development through. The uncertainty makes me wonder whether the Dolphins would be better off breaking their rule and giving McDaniel a fifth year at the helm before considering a fresh start for their offense in 2028.
When it comes to hiring a new head coach, that might not be a bridge the Dolphins have to cross, as it remains very possible that owner Stephen Ross will stick with Mike McDaniel.
However, if that doesn't turn out to be the case, we don't think candidates are going to be that fearful of taking the Dolphins' job.
Now, if Ross mandates the new head coach to start Tua next season, that could be a major problem, but we don't see that happening.
Sure, the Tua situation sets up a financial mess that will impact the team's ability to add players, but it's not like Miami is even a year or two away from competing, anyway, so being strapped for funds isn't a huge deal in the short term.
As the Dolphins wait to get out from under Tagovailoa's contract, they can build up the youth up and down the roster via the NFL draft while also finding their next quarterback.
In 2027, the Dolphins can begin spending a significant sum of money, with Miami projected to have $78 million in cap space that year. Miami will have even more cap space in 2028.
Will there be pain for a new head coach in the short term? Absolutely.
But having a blank canvas to work with and being able to live in Miami are going to outweigh the financial burden Tua's deal will temporarily bring.
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