When the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18, the team will have an opportunity to lock up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
If the Raiders can secure the No. 1 overall pick, they will have their pick of the lot of quarterback prospects in the draft, with guys like Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Oregon's Dante Moore expected to lead the class.
Going into Week 18, the Raiders are sitting in the No. 1 spot, but they could screw this up and fall in the draft order with a win.
Here's what will happen to the Raiders' draft pick with a loss, and what the team will need to happen if Las Vegas beats Kansas City on Sunday.
With a loss
The Raiders will immediately lock up the No. 1 overall pick by losing, regardless of what happens around the league. That's because the Raiders would finish with the league's worst record at 2-15.
The problem is that the Chiefs won't have several key players suiting up, including Patrick Mahomes and his backup, Gardner Minshew, which leaves third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun starting.
Sure, the Raiders don't have some key players, also, but their quarterback options that include Kenny Pickett and Aidan O'Connell (Geno Smith is out due to injury) are both better than what the Chiefs are running out there.
Despite how awful the Raiders have been this season, they actually have a legit shot to win this game against the Chiefs, which is troubling.
With a win
It would be typical Raiders for the team to win in Week 18 and fall in the draft order. We've come to expect this kind of disaster to happen.
The good news is, Las Vegas cannot fall any further than the No. 2 spot with a win, so they'd still have a great crack at getting the top quarterback prospect.
However, there are also multiple paths to secure the No. 1 overall pick with a win, with the easiest being the New York Giants beating the Dallas Cowboys.
If the Raiders win and the Giants lose, Las Vegas would need the following three results to still grab the No. 1 pick, per Tankathon:
- Cincinnati Bengals defeat Cleveland Browns
- New Orleans Saints defeat Atlanta Falcons
- Detroit Lions defeat Chicago Bears
Those three results would leave the Giants and Raiders tied in strength of schedule, which is the tie-breaker for teams finishing with the same record.
But the second tie-breaker is head-to-head, and since the Giants beat the Raiders in Week 17, Las Vegas would grab the No. 1 pick in that scenario.
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