It sounds almost unreal to even type it out, but there is a path — however narrow — where the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes miss the playoffs this season.
Kansas City enters the day still fighting for postseason life, yet needing help. The math is simple, even if the outcome would feel anything but normal. The Chiefs would be eliminated if they lose to the Chargers and the Bills beat or tie the Patriots, the Jaguars beat or tie the Jets, and the Texans beat the Cardinals. If all four results land that way, Kansas City’s season would end without a playoff berth.
That possibility alone shows how strange this season has been. Since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have been the NFL’s model of consistency. Kansas City has reached the playoffs every year of the Mahomes era, advancing to the AFC Championship Game in six straight seasons from 2018 through 2023. During that run, the Chiefs appeared in four Super Bowls and won three of them, lifting the Lombardi Trophy after the 2019, 2022, and 2023 seasons.
In other words, missing the postseason would be more than just a down year — it would be a shock to the system. This is a franchise that has defined January football for half a decade, with Mahomes becoming the face of the league and Kansas City the standard every AFC team measures itself against.
That history is what makes today’s elimination scenarios so jarring. The Chiefs aren’t usually scoreboard-watching in December, hoping for help from multiple teams just to stay alive. They’re usually the team everyone else is chasing.
Whether or not all four results actually fall the wrong way, the fact that this conversation is even happening underscores how unexpected the moment is. A postseason without Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs would feel foreign — and if it happens, it would be one of the most surprising developments of the NFL season.