The Kansas City Chiefs know that their Week 12 matchup against the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts is for all the marbles.
Given the state of the division with the Broncos running away with it, and how far back the Chiefs are in the hunt for the seventh seed, there is now no margin for error for Andy Reid's team if they want to scrape into the playoffs.
That means winning out, essentially, and starting with the Colts on Sunday.
For NFL.com, four of their five writers have picked the Chiefs to keep their season alive, and Gennaro Filice thinks the game will be decided by the Chiefs' defense against the Colts' offense.
"Having made five of the past six Super Bowls -- collecting three Lombardi Trophies in the process -- Kansas City finds itself in completely unfamiliar territory: outside of the current playoff field," Filice writes. "The chess match between Shane Steichen and Steve Spagnuolo takes center stage at Arrowhead, and I like the four-time Super Bowl champion to rally his defense in a must-win game."
More: Analyst has 'season-saving' belief in Chiefs' Week 12 showing vs. Colts
Chiefs' defense on show vs. Colts
Spagnuolo's defense currently ranks fourth in points allowed, just 18.1 per game, and for the Colts, with Daniel Jones and Co., they are averaging 32.1 points a game, the NFL's best.
We are fairly confident that the Chiefs' defense won't allow 32 points on Sunday. Why? Because, despite being as inconsistent as ever as a team overall, the defense hasn't allowed more than 30 points in a game.
Plus, being at Arrowhead, Spagnuolo knows how to make the crowd noise work for his team, and Jones can expect a host of exotic looks, and for an offense that has had eight turnovers in the past two weeks, that could be problematic.
It is a must-win game for Kansas City, and at home, you would be a fool to bet against them.
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