Daniel Jones' first pass attempt in the Colts' critical Week 14 division road game at the Jaguars was intercepted. Unfortunately, he didn't have the chance to make amends after being ruled out early in the second quarter after an Achilles injury.
Indianapolis dropped to 8-5, a full game back of the AFC South-leading and winning Jacksonville 9-4. With no Jones, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars rolled to a dominant 28-10 halftime lead and a 36-19 victory.
Although second-year backup Riley Leonard (with Anthony Richardson injured) provided a little spark on an early field-goal drive and a little through the scond half, the offense and defense fell into big hole in the biggest game of the season.
The Colts should be prepared for the worst with Jones' outlook for the final four weeks of the 2025 NFL regular season as they try to make the playoffs. Should Jones miss the rest of their games, it's difficult to see them winning enough to qualify for the AFC postseason, even as a wild card.
MORE: Latest injury updates on Daniel Jones' Achilles injury
Why the Colts are in trouble in the AFC South race
The Jaguars and Colts meet again in Indianapolis in Week 17. But the full game and tiebreaker advantage are significant with only four weeks left in the season.
Indianapolis also has another tough division game left, at the Texans to close out the schedule in Week 18. It's difficult to see the Colts winning either division game without Jones leading the offense with the drop of inefficiency, execution and experience from him to Leonard.
Why the Colts are in trouble in AFC wild-card race
The Colts went into Week 14 with the No. 6 seed, or the second wild-card team behind the Chargers (8-4) and Bills (8-4). After the after the now No. 5 Bills (9-4) beat the Bengals and before the now No. 6 Chargers host the Eagles, the Colts are now at No. 7.
The problem lies in the teams right behind the Colts. Which include the 7-5 Texans (No. 8) and the 6-6 Chiefs (No. 9), who play each other in Kansas City on Sunday night. The Texans have a chance to pull even with the Colts in second place before playing them later. The Chiefs beat the Colts and would move to only game behind with a win.
That doesn't include the second-place team in the AFC North, the No. 10 Ravens, 6-7 after Week 14, only two games behind the Colts. The No. 10 Dolphins also improved to 6-7 with a win over the Jets.
The rub is the Colts' schedule, with or without Jones, before the rematches with the Jaguars and Texans. They play two NFC West playoff-positioned teams, at the Seahawks (10-3) in Week 15 and vs. The 49ers (9-4) in Week 16.
The Colts faced a difficult closing stretch regardless of their QB situation. Being at a significant disadvantage at the most important posiition now can derail what was once a dream surprise breakout season.