Texans and Davis Mills upset Buffalo, advance to 6-5 improving playoff odds

The Texans entered Thursday Night with just a 26% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN. The win tonight over Buffalo raised the probability by 11% something favorable for Texan fans to 37%. A loss almost certainly could have been catastrophic for the season, dropping the probability to just 15%.

Texans advance to 6-5 over the Buffalo Bills, improving playoff odds

The Texans sit third in the AFC South behind the Colts (8–2) and Jaguars (6–4), and while Houston entered the season as a popular pick to contend for the division, that path now appears increasingly unlikely. Instead, the Texans’ clearest route to the postseason hinges on securing a wild-card berth as they look to maintain momentum over the coming weeks.

Historically, the odds are slim. Since 1990, teams starting 5–5 have reached the postseason only 9% of the time. But a recent three-game winning streak, paired with steady quarterback play from Davis Mills in relief, has kept Houston firmly in the hunt.

The Texans complete a 3-0 stretch with Davis Mills at QB 👏

BACK IN IT! Pic.twitter.com/vuXdlSCdLq

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 21, 2025

A major boost may be on the way. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is expected to return for the Texans’ Week 13 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. Stroud has been sidelined since suffering a concussion in Week 9 against the Denver Broncos, missing three consecutive games, including last Thursday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Stroud logged limited work in practice this past week and is believed to be “very close” to clearing the NFL’s five-step concussion protocol. With the benefit of a mini-bye following the Thursday game, the Texans are optimistic he will reclaim the starting job in time for the divisional showdown.