TL;DR
- Houston Texans have slim playoff hopes, facing Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.
- A win against Buffalo would increase Texans' playoff probability from 26% to 37%.
- Historically, only 9% of teams with a 5-5 record or worse make the NFL playoffs.
- Coach DeMeco Ryans emphasizes effort and execution over playoff standings and statistics.
The Houston Texans enter Thursday Night Football with slim postseason hopes but a pivotal opportunity to shift the odds in their favor against the Buffalo Bills.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Houston has a 26% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 12. A win over Buffalo would raise that probability to 37%, while a loss would drop it to 15%.
Demeco Ryan isn't focused on the standings.
History isn't favoring Houston, as only about 9% of NFL teams (89 out of 989) that began the Super Bowl era with a 5-5 record or worse through 10 games have ultimately made the playoffs, according to ESPN Research.
Still, head coach DeMeco Ryans said his focus remains on effort and execution, not numbers.
“All that stuff, it doesn't matter,” Ryans said bluntly on Wednesday, via ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime. “Honestly, when the ball is snapped, nobody's thinking about, ‘We’re going to play harder because of the standings.’ If you're playing here in Houston, I expect you to play hard no matter when we're playing, whether it's preseason or it's the playoffs. It should look exactly the same when you turn our tape on.”
According to ESPN analytics, the Buffalo Bills are favored 63.5% over the Texans, 36.2%. NFL teams with a 5–5 record have made the playoffs, but it is relatively rare. Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, only about 9% of teams that were 5–5 or worse through 10 games have gone on to qualify for the postseason. This means that while it is possible, it is considered an uphill battle and typically requires a strong finish to the season.
The Texans, holding a 5-5 record, are aiming to recover from their close defeat last week, while the Bills, at 6-4, seek to strengthen their playoff standing. The game is scheduled to start at 7:15 p.m. CST at NRG Stadium.
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