After cruising to the playoffs last season with a 15-2 record, the Detroit Lions are on the outside looking in entering Week 16.
The Lions are sitting with a disappointing 8-6 record and are in third place in the NFC North and in the No. 8 spot in the wild-card standings.
According to the New York Times' Playoff Simulator, Detroit's hopes of winning the division are just about dead, with their chances sitting at 5%. Overall, the Lions have a 25% chance to make the playoffs, with their best path being the wild card.
While the Lions are obviously not dead yet, there is a scenario in which they could be eliminated from playoff contention as soon as this week, but the scenario is highly unlikely to unfold (H/T Jeremy Reisman, Pride of Detroit).
In order to be eliminated from playoff contention, the Lions would have to lose and the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears would have to finish in a tie.
In that scenario, the Packers and Bears would clinch a postseason berth and the Lions would be eliminated. Not likely, but not impossible, either.
With a tie, the Packers would be 9-4-2, but those two ties amount to a full win, so essentially the Packers would be 10-4.
The best the Lions can hope for off a Week 16 loss would be 10 wins, forcing a tie-breaker with the Packers that Detroit can't win because Green Bay owns the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Going with the same formula of a tie equaling half a win, the Bears will technically be north of 10 wins with a tie and that would put them out of reach for Detroit.
The other wild-card teams can't be caught by Detroit, either, if the Lions lose.
The Seattle Seahawks already have 11 wins, a total the Lions can't reach if they lose this weekend. The San Francisco 49ers have 10 wins, but they also own the conference record tie-breaker over Detroit, so catching San Fran isn't an option, even if the Niners lose their remaining games.
Again, this entire scenario is highly unlikely to unfold, but it remains a possibility and as we know, if it's possible, it can happen in the NFL.
The Packers and Bears play on Saturday, while the Lions take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. So, that means we'll know by Saturday if the Lions are in danger of being eliminated.
More NFL News
- Raiders rumor details Las Vegas' likely exit strategy with Pete Carroll
- Jerry Jones highly critical of Matt Eberflus, making his seat even hotter
- Details behind Jets' problems with Allen Lazard revealed after WR's release
- Zac Taylor, Duke Tobin get Bengals job security update from beat writer