The Denver Broncos are 8-2, sitting atop the AFC West, and tied with the New England Patriots atop the AFC. While things have worked out this season, there are still some concerns.
Mainly, the play of Bo Nix has left a lot to be desired this season. Even with two great comeback wins over the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, Nix hasn't been at his best this season.
ESPN analyst Ben Solak highlighted some of the issues with Nix, pointing to the production of the Broncos' first-round quarterback in certain scenarios that are cause for concern.
Why Bo Nix might be a problem for Denver
Solak pointed out how much Nix has struggled in neutral game scripts compared to his production in blowout scripts this season.
"Nix has a dropback success rate of 48.8% and a first-down/touchdown rate of 41.5% on those dropbacks." Solak writes. "In neutral states, those numbers drop to 43.1% and 29% respectively."
Nix is struggling when the game is in neutral scripts is a major cause for concern. If the Broncos are playing in tight games, which is likely the case against tough opponents or in the playoffs, Nix isn't at his best for the majority of the game.
These struggles stem from conservative playcalling and execution from the offense. Nix has been a game manager for Sean Payton's offense, and while it can lead to wins, it's not a sustainable practice come the playoffs.
Coming into the NFL, Nix was already risk-averse. And as Solak points out, "He has become only more cautious over time, as the Broncos' coaching staff has clearly stressed to him that they can win games when he avoids mistakes."
When Nix is asked to complete third and longs, and when he decides to throw the ball further than 10 yards down the field, he's not been great.
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"Nix is still 28th in off-target rate and 29th in completion percentage over expectation on those late-down throws, per Next Gen Stats," Solak writes. "On throws of 10 or more air yards, his off-target rate is dead last among all quarterbacks over the past two seasons combined."
Those off-target throws aren't turning into just incompletions. Over the last two seasons, Nix has had 17 interceptions on throws over 10 yards down the field, tied with Geno Smith, who's struggled a ton with the Las Vegas Raiders this season.
Nix isn't the worst quarterback in the NFL, but these statistics that Solak highlights are reasons to be concerned about the Broncos' first-round quarterback.
That isn't to say he doesn't have his great moments, as seen by his comeback wins over the Eagles and Giants. Nix has shown potential, but more often than not, he's struggling in the majority of situations.
While it may be too early to say the Broncos made a mistake with Nix, these issues that Solak identified need to be fixed by the playoffs; otherwise, Denver will have a tough time beating the top contenders in the NFL.
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