The Denver Broncos are one win away from the AFC Championship Game for the first time since the 2015 season, but to get there, they must overcome a hungry Buffalo Bills team. If you look around, despite the Broncos being the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the majority of fans and NFL analysts are picking the Bills to win this game.
Much of that is because the Bills have Josh Allen at quarterback. For fans who have already seen their team eliminated this season, it's easy to root for the Bills, a proud franchise with a passionate fanbase that is still looking for its first Super Bowl victory. Their quarterback, Allen, is not only one of the best players in the league, but he's also one of the most likable.
But the Broncos won 14 games this year and have lost just once at Empower Field at Mile High in the last 14 months. The team should be getting much more credit and given much more of a chance to knock off Allen and advance, but Bo Nix and his squad have thrived on being the underdog this season.
The Broncos could easily get this win, and here are four reasons why.
Factors that could lead to the Broncos defeating the Bills
Home-field advantage
This is an obvious one, but for everyone picking the Bills to win, they seem to be overlooking how good Denver is at home. The Broncos have lost just once at home this season and once last season. The Bills were only 5-3 on the road this season and now they go into one of the loudest, most hostile environments in the NFL.
This is a clear advantage for the Broncos.
Time to prepare vs. Lack of time off
The Bills just played a playoff game last Sunday in Jacksonville and it wasn't exactly a walk in the park. They escapred with a win, but Josh Allen was banged up in the victory and now they come into Denver on a short week.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a bye and with an easy victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18 in a game in which the Chargers were resting key players, they haven't really been pushed since facing the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas.
Bills injuries vs. Broncos lack of injuries
It looks like the Broncos will be without tight end Lucas Krull and linebacker Drew Sanders (who hasn't played all season) in this game. That's it. Those are the only two names on the Broncos' injury report.
On the other side, the Bills have a slew of injuries. In addition to being down bad at the wide receiver position, all of linebacker Terrell Bernard, defensive lineman Ed Oliver, running back Ty Johnson and wide receiver Curtis Samuel are listed as questionable on the Bills' injury report.
Allen is going to play, but he is nursing more than one injury from last week. The Broncos should be able to take advantage of a huge difference in the injury department.
X-Factor Player: Dre Greenlaw, Linebacker
The Broncos will be getting linebacker Dre Greenlaw back for this game and while he has had a bit of a disappointing season for the team due to injuries, he has played well when he's been out there. With the Bills having a lack of weapons at the wide receiver position, Allen will look to attack the Denver defense with his running backs andtight ends. Greenlaw will play a huge role in this game in slowing those players down.
Broncos LB Dre Greenlaw has no injury designation. Https://t.co/jjTIEaeAtq
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 15, 2026
If Greenlaw can help slow down the rushing attack that was dominant for the Bills in last year's Wild Card game and keep Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at bay in pass coverage, he can be the biggest factor in this game and quite possibly, the biggest key to a Broncos win.
READ: Broncos vs. Bills expert picks
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