TL;DR
- Cleveland Browns offense is too predictable, relying heavily on 11* and 12 personnel.
- These dominant personnel groupings are producing negative Expected Points Added for the Browns.
- Less-used personnel sets and strategic personnel mixing show surprising efficiency.
- The Browns should use varied personnel to support rookie QB Shedeur Sanders.
The Cleveland Browns have some weapons on offense, but one thing is clear—they’ve
become way too predictable. A look at their play and personnel usage shows why defenses can
almost guess what’s coming.
Over 636 plays this season, a few personnel groupings dominate. (Quick note: a * next to a
personnel grouping means they’re using a sixth offensive lineman.) 11* personnel and 12
personnel are running the show, combining for nearly 85% of all plays. 11* personnel ran 264
plays (41.5% of the offense) and 12 personnel ran 279 plays (43.9%). The problem? Both are
producing really negative Expected Points Added (EPA), -54.63 and -57.56, meaning these
heavy, predictable sets aren’t doing the team any favors.
On the flip side, some of the lesser-used groups are surprisingly efficient. 12* personnel ran
only 32 plays (5% of the total) but had the best EPA of 9.97. 21* personnel ran just a single play
and still added 2.18 EPA. When the Browns step away from their usual heavy personnel, the
offense actually works better—but they hardly ever do it.
Passing tells the same story. 02 personnel ran only 7 plays but was a 100% pass package, and
21 personnel ran 66.7% passes on its small sample. That kind of predictability makes it easy for
defenses: see the personnel, know the play.
Adding to the challenge, rookie QB Shedeur Sanders is making his first start this week, after a
rough outing in relief of Dillon Gabriel last Sunday. To help Sanders settle in, the Browns will need to run the ball efficiently and avoid inviting defenders into the box with their heavy, predictable personnel
packages. This is the perfect time to mix in some of the less-used personnel sets that have
already shown success, run the ball out of 10 personnel spread formations and trips concepts,
and try something outside the usual script. Keeping defenses off balance could make life a lot
easier for Sanders and give the offense a better chance to click.
Bottom line: the Browns have the pieces to do better on offense, but right now they’re too predictable.
Mixing personnel, using sixth linemen strategically, and incorporating fresh looks could give Sanders the best shot to thrive in his first start.