The Buffalo Bills are gearing up for their biggest game of the season as they head to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. If the Patriots win, they lock up the AFC East, marking the first time since 2019 that Buffalo wouldn't win the division. And while many Bills fans are hoping to see the Bills win their sixth consecutive division championship, it's certainly not the end of the world if they can't.
That's not to say they shouldn't hope for a win over New England - they absolutely should. But if the Patriots were to win the division while the Bills finished as a wild card team, it may actually end up benefitting the Bills.
How being a wild card team benefits the Bills
In this scenario, the Bills would want to be the No. 5 seed, which means they'd need the Chargers to lose at least one game to overtake them in the standings. Why is this the best route? Because the No. 5 seed in the AFC all but guarantees a trip to the winner of the AFC North, which right now would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills already hammered Pittsburgh 26-7 in Week 13, and there is no reason to believe they wouldn't win that game again. From there, Buffalo would likely take on either the Denver Broncos or the Patriots for a third time, as those are the current No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC - both of which are winnable games.
Additionally, if the Houston Texans make the postseason as the No. 7 seed, they very well could beat the Patriots/Broncos in the wild card round, creating a final four in the AFC of the Bills, Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Chargers, should the AFC playoff teams remain as they currently sit.
In terms of best case scenario for the Bills, they couldn't get much better than that. No Kansas City Chiefs, no Baltimore Ravens, and no Cincinnati Bengals. The other three teams would feature quarterbacks who have never played in the AFC Championship Game and have a combined three playoff wins between them. It could also lead to the No. 5 Bills hosting the No. 6/7 seed Texans in the AFC Championship Game.
So while the No. 2 seed looks more attractive on paper, the No. 5 seed provides an easier path - especially if the Chiefs do sneak in as the No. 7 seed.
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