Stop me if you've heard this one before: Josh Allen is awesome and doing all he can to drag an offense that lacks stars to greatness while the defense continues to struggle.
That's been the story of the last half-decade for the Buffalo Bills, and those issues came back to light in Week 5 during a 23-20 loss to the New England Patriots.
Buffalo Bills defensive woes
The Bills' defense has the same issues it's had for the better part of the last five years. They can't tackle, they can't sustain a pass rush, and now their secondary fields no one reliable. Even Christian Benford hasn't looked great, and he is coming off a year in which he was one of the five best cornerbacks in football. Tre'Davious White is a fossil, and yet Sean McDermott still trots him out as the No. 2 cornerback. Taylor Rapp has taken a step back. Cole Bishop makes the occasional splash play, but isn't developed enough where he can be relied upon as an every-down difference-maker at safety. Taron Johnson can't tackle.
On top of that, the pass rush still cannot get home consistently. Buffalo allows the fifth-highest time to throw in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. And sure, you can get away with that when you're playing Spencer Rattler or Justin Fields - you aren't beating the Chiefs if you can't get to Patrick Mahomes, as the Bills have found out four times in the postseason.
In Week 5, Drake Maye went 22-of-30 for 273 yards, good for 9.1 yards per attempt. Maye cemented himself as a star in this game, and helped Stefon Diggs get to 2-0 against his former team with 10 catches and 146 yards. And while Maye is well on his way to being one of the top quarterbacks in the league, what do you think Mahomes will do to this defense in January? The same thing he always does.
The defensive personnel isn't good. It's not horrible, but Buffalo's defense doesn't scare anybody - that's on Sean McDermott, a guy who's supposed to be a defensive guru. Yet, his defenses are consistently bad in the biggest games, and as of late, they're just bad, period. Compare it to the Minnesota Vikings, another defense that doesn't have many, if any, superstars. However, they have been one of the three best defenses in the NFL over the last two years because of Brian Flores, his defensive scheme, and his ability to utilize guys that fit certain roles to make the defense work.
McDermott's defense lacks any sort of nuance, doesn't field any stars, and is easy to defeat. That reflects, not only on McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, but on general manager Brandon Beane for doing next to nothing to fix it.
The Bills receivers stink
Let's just call it what it is, the Bills' receivers are bad. And sure, Josh Allen threw a costly red zone interception and didn't have his best game, but look at the numbers when it comes to throwing the ball downfield, courtesy of Anthony Cover 1 on X.
Among 33 qualified quarterbacks when it comes to deep throws, this is where Allen ranks across respective categories:
- 12th in attempts
- 24th in EPA per dropback
- 22nd in EPA
- 2nd in time to throw
- 28th in average target separation
- 27th in passer rating
- 24th in yards per attempt
- 9th in CPOE (Completion percentage over expected)
Those numbers tell a pretty damning story for Buffalo's wideouts. The offensive line, and Allen himself, are giving receivers nearly five seconds to get any sort of separation - they can't. 28th in average target separation and 9th in CPOE. That means that Allen, despite there being nearly no room to fit passes downfield, finds a way to fit passes into windows that aren't there. That is their deep passing game right now. Nothing comes easy downfield for the Bills. And while so many people are quick to blame offensive coordinator Joe Brady for not drawing up more downfield looks, he did in Week 5, and look what happened - there's nothing there.
How to fix the Bills
Offensively, Buffalo doesn't need a massive superstar at receiver to fix these issues, they need another John Brown. A reliable, fast guy that can take the top off of defenses and be a consistent threat to catch deep balls from Allen. A trade for someone like Rashid Shaheed would help the Bills' offense tremendously.
Defensively, it's the opposite - they need stars. Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen is reportedly available via trade - go get him. He's a tall, lanky cornerback with very good ball skills and he's god against the run. That's McDermott's prototype when it comes to the position, and he would immediately slot in as a starter.
What the Bills can't do is sit on their hands, look at the guys their getting back after Week 6 due to suspension, and say that's good enough. Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi aren't fixing the defense. Elevating Gabe Davis to the active roster won't change much. There are only so many years that Josh Allen will be at this level of devastatingly good. Take advantage of it, get aggressive, and build the best roster possible. If you don't, well then get used to saying "good game" to Patrick Mahomes after he ends your season again.
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