On 4th-and-5 with two minutes to go in the AFC Championship Game, Josh Allen heaved up a prayer to whatever God would listen while an avalanche of Kansas City Chiefs defenders engulfed him. Against all odds, the ball made its way to tight end Dalton Kincaid, who saw the pass, and the Bills' season, slip through his fingertips.
This was the exclamation point on a black cloud Year Two for Kincaid. And while the lasting image for Bills fans over the last seven months has been their former first-round pick dropping the ball, both literally and figuratively, the Utah product has shown early in the season that he is back to being a game-changer for the Bills’ offense.
Dalton Kincaid is off to a terrific start
With 13 receptions through three games, Kincaid is on pace for a new career-high of 74 receptions, a number he put up as a rookie in 2023, and he’s already tied his touchdown count in each of the last two seasons with two scores through three games. It’s not just the volume at which he is catching passes from Josh Allen, either; it’s the importance and efficiency of those catches that are helping the Bills’ offense.
Per Next Gen Stats, Kincaid ranks seventh amongst all wide receivers/tight ends in catch rate (min. 10 targets), catching 13 of the 16 passes thrown his way. On top of that, his receiving EPA is higher than that of Davante Adams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Mike Evans. He’s also made plays with the ball in his hands to get extra yards, ranking second amongst tight ends in YAC, and is top 10 amongst all wide receivers and tight ends.
Many had a similar question about the Bills entering the 2025 campaign that they did in 2024 - who will be the guy they can lean on when they need a big catch? So far, No. 86 has been that guy. He scored the first touchdown of the Bills' season in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens - perhaps that was an omen for a special season to come. He may have been public enemy No. 1 after the AFC Championship Game, but right now, he looks like one of the main reasons they'll be back in that spot again come January.
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