Is Texas out of the playoff? Explaining Longhorns' CFP chances after loss to Georgia

The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 season as the top-ranked team in the AP Poll. Fast forward a few months, and their College Football Playoff hopes are now very much in question.

Steve Sarkisian's squad fell 35-10 to No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night, marking the Longhorns’ third loss of the season. The Bulldogs’ defense came through on third downs and also intercepted Arch Manning once, while Gunner Stockton shined with five total touchdowns.

The result of Texas vs. Georgia carries major SEC and CFP implications, including the Longhorns’ shrinking chances of returning to the 12-team playoff bracket this season.

Can Texas still make a run to the 2025 College Football Playoff? Here’s an updated look at the Longhorns’ case after falling to Georgia.

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Is Texas out of the playoff?

At the very least, Texas now faces a steep uphill climb to reach the College Football Playoff. A shot at the SEC Championship is virtually off the table with three losses, meaning the Longhorns would have to make their case for an at-large bid.

That’s not impossible, but it is unlikely. In 2024, no at-large teams in the bracket had three or more losses. Still, there’s at least one reason to give Texas a chance: Steve Sarkisian's squad has a matchup against No. 3 Texas A&M on Nov. 28 to conclude the regular season.

If the Longhorns win out, defeating Arkansas and the unbeaten Aggies over the next two weeks, there could be serious conversations about their playoff resume. Even with three prior losses, a win over the SEC’s top-ranked, undefeated Texas A&M right before Selection Sunday would generate major buzz and could be enough to sneak Texas into the bracket despite losses to Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia this season.

Another factor in Texas’ playoff case is that two of its losses came against teams regarded as top-5 playoff contenders, Ohio State and Georgia. That gives the Longhorns a slight boost, although the loss to Florida can’t really be spun positively.

Usually, three-loss teams are ruled out for an at-large CFP bid. Texas could be an exception — but only if it wins out. If the Longhorns defeat Texas A&M later this month, don’t be surprised if they remain in playoff conversations.

MORE: Arch Manning's full stats in loss to Georgia

SEC teams with three losses

There are now three SEC teams with three losses in 2025 this season: Texas, Tennessee and Missouri.

Of the three, the Longhorns still have the best playoff case, losing to a pair of top-5 teams and still having a matchup against a top-5 team remaining.

Here's a breakdown of the three-loss SEC squads' best wins and losses in 2025:

Texas (7-3, 4-2 in SEC)

• Best wins:  23-6 over No. 6 Oklahoma on Oct. 11; 34-31 over No. 9 Vanderbilt on Nov. 1
• Losses:  14-7 to No. 3 Ohio State on Aug. 30; 29-21 to Florida on Oct. 4; 35-10 to No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 15

Tennessee (7-3, 3-3 in SEC)

• Best wins:  56-34 over Kentucky on Oct. 25; 41-34 over Mississippi State on Sept. 27
• Losses:  44-41 to No. 6 Georgia on Sept. 13; 37-20 to No. 6 Alabama on Oct. 18; 33-27 to No. 18 Oklahoma on Nov. 1

Missouri (6-3, 2-3 in SEC)

• Best wins:  29-20 over South Carolina on Sept. 20; 23-17 over Auburn on Oct. 18
• Losses:  27-24 to No. 8 Alabama on Oct. 11; 17-10 to No. 10 Vanderbilt on Oct. 25; 38-17 to No. 3 Texas A&M on Nov. 8

MORE: Inside the Aggies' historic comeback against South Carolina

SEC football standings

Here are the updated SEC standings following Texas vs. Georgia on Saturday night.

Texas remaining schedule

Texas will conclude the regular season against Arkansas, then Texas A&M. 

MORE: Looking back on Arch Manning's high school career

Georgia remaining schedule

The Bulldogs will finish out their 2025 regular season against Charlotte, then Georgia Tech.