TL;DR
- Texas must defeat undefeated No. 3 Texas A&M to have a slim College Football Playoff chance.
- Texas needs several teams ranked higher, like Notre Dame, Alabama, and Miami, to lose.
- A loss for Notre Dame, Alabama, or Miami would improve Texas's playoff prospects.
- Texas is currently ranked 16th and needs significant help to reach the 12-team playoff.
Rivalry Week has arrived! For squads not slated to compete in a conference championship contest, this upcoming weekend presents one of the final chances for teams to leave a significant mark on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
One of those teams is Texas, which is 8-3 on the season. The Longhorns take on No. 3 Texas A&M at home on Friday evening. If Texas, listed as a 2.5-point home underdog, knocks off the Aggies, there is still a long-shot chance for the Longhorns in the 12-team playoff.
Texas would require considerable assistance to achieve that, but a victory against the undefeated Texas A&M presents a slim possibility for a playoff spot. It's crucial to recognize that Texas must overcome the Aggies in this matchup, even if several teams ranked higher than the Longhorns experience defeats.
Let's examine the possibilities for Texas to secure a playoff spot, remembering that the Longhorns must defeat Texas A&M for any of these outcomes to materialize.
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College Football Playoff standings for Texas
Here are the current CFP rankings, the most recent ones released on Nov. 25.
- Ohio State: 11-0
- Indiana: 11-0
- Texas A&M: 11-0
- Georgia: 10-1
- Texas Tech: 10-1
- Oregon: 10-1
- Ole Miss: 10-1
- Oklahoma: 9-2
- Notre Dame: 9-2
- Alabama: 9-2
- BYU: 10-1 (first team out)
- Miami (Fla.): 9-2 (fourth-highest-ranked conference champion)
- Utah: 9-2
- Vanderbilt: 9-2
- Michigan: 9-2
- Texas: 8-3
- USC: 8-3
- Virginia: 9-2
- Tennessee: 8-3
- Arizona State: 8-3
- SMU: 8-3
- Pitt: 8-3
- Georgia Tech: 9-2
- Tulane: 9-2 (fifth-highest-ranked conference champion)
- Arizona: 8-3
And here's a look at the current bracket. As you can see, Texas is not included in the 12-team field.
Clearly, positioned at 16th, the Longhorns are quite distant from the 12-team bracket. However, with only four teams separating Texas from the top-12, the Longhorns still have a slim possibility.
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Is it possible for Texas to reach the College Football Playoff?
According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, the Longhorns have an 11% chance to make the CFP, even with a win over A&M. ESPN's FPI has it even lower, currently with just a 6.4% chance.
However, if several teams ahead of Texas, such as Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, and Utah, experience defeats, the Longhorns' prospects improve somewhat. Let's examine which teams Texas ought to support this weekend to enhance their chances of securing a playoff spot.
MORE: Why Ole Miss fans should be concerned about Rebels' CFP drop
Stanford defeated No. 9 Notre Dame.
Should Notre Dame lose to a 4-7 Stanford squad, the No. 10 seed might become accessible, potentially for Texas. The Irish have already experienced defeats against Texas A&M and Miami, and an additional loss would almost certainly eliminate Notre Dame from contention. As an Independent, the Irish do not compete in a conference and have only secured two additional victories against ranked adversaries in USC and Pitt. Notre Dame is currently projected as a 31.5-point favorite.
Auburn defeated No. 10 Alabama.
Should Alabama fall to a 5-6 Auburn squad, Texas would also benefit. Primarily, this would remove the Tide from contention for the SEC championship game, thereby disqualifying them from an automatic entry. Furthermore, it would create an opportunity for Georgia or Ole Miss to participate in that contest.
It would be challenging to imagine the committee ranking Alabama with three defeats against Florida State, Oklahoma, and Auburn, given that the Tigers and FSU are currently below the.500 mark.
No. 22 Pitt triumphs over No. 12 Miami
For reasons unknown, the committee has persisted in placing Miami as the eleventh seed in the tournament. This decision stands even with The Hurricanes' challenging journey to the ACC championship game, which required them to defeat Pitt and for teams such as SMU, Duke, and Virginia to experience defeats.
While the eleventh position will probably be awarded to the eventual ACC Champion, a loss for Miami might allow the Longhorns to move up before Championship Saturday. Miami is favored by seven points.
Tennessee, ranked 19th, defeats 14th-ranked Vanderbilt.
Despite neither of these two squads competing for the SEC championship or a playoff berth, Vanderbilt, which suffered a 34-31 defeat against Texas earlier in the year, is positioned higher than the Longhorns in the rankings as Week 13 commences. A loss for Vanderbilt would result in Texas advancing at least one or two places in the standings. The Commodores are considered 3-point underdogs away from home.
The seventh-ranked Ole Miss Rebels suffered a defeat at the hands of Mississippi State.
The Ole Miss versus Mississippi State Egg Bowl matchup is eagerly awaited for multiple factors. The primary one concerns the future of Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin, whose decision regarding his next steps is anticipated to be revealed on Saturday, the day following the contest. However, should Ole Miss emerge victorious against the Bulldogs, it would maintain the Rebels' possibility of reaching the SEC championship game, a feat they've never accomplished in the institution's history.
Should Ole Miss suffer a defeat, it might eliminate the Rebels from playoff contention. ESPN's playoff projection indicates Ole Miss' playoff prospects at 41% if they lose to the Bulldogs. If Ole Miss is out of SEC championship contention following a loss, the selection committee might rank other teams, such as Texas and others, ahead of Kiffin's squad. Ole Miss is currently favored by 7 points.
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Kansas triumphs over 13th-ranked Utah, while UCF defeats 11th-ranked BYU.
The Big 12 championship matchup remains undecided, with Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Arizona State still contending. Should Utah lose to the unranked 5-6 Kansas Jayhawks, it would eliminate the Utes from contention for The Big 12 title game, consequently elevating Texas in the standings.
Despite BYU holding the 11th spot, the Cougars weren't featured in the CFP's most recent rankings. A defeat against UCF, who currently have a 5-6 record, would only reinforce that standing and allow Texas to surpass the Cougars.