Arch Manning staying at Texas was the most predictable 'what if' of 2025

Jason Jones

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Arch Manning staying at Texas was the most predictable 'what if' of 2025 image

Arch Manning deciding to return to Texas for the 2026 season, should not have been the headline boom it was on Tuesday. Arch Manning’s time at Texas was believed to end, for those who have no influence on that decision, came down to simply eligibility math.

How long has Arch been at Texas vs how soon could he declare for the NFL Draft if he chose to? The answer was he could declare for the 2026 NFL Draft based on eligibility. However, eligibility math was not going to weigh heavily on his decision. Development would.

Arch returning to Texas for the 2026 season was the worst kept secret in all of the college football player movement discussions in 2025. The issue surrounding Arch and his draft decision came down to what fans and analysts wanted to see vs what the Manning family felt was best for Arch.

Arch Manning's hype vs reality in 2025

The narratives became somewhat excessive when it came to Arch in NFL circles. Arch has been projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, conceptually, every year he has been at Texas. With many conversations happening in the hypothetical, the NFL impression by fans and some analysts was he is the prize, no matter what year it is.

Arch has had a level of hype and excitement that Peyton and Eli Manning never had. The hype and excitement can be tracked back to a singular play vs UTSA. When Arch looked nothing like a Manning at all.

On that day in 2024, Arch tucked the ball and ran for a 67-yard touchdown. A Manning with a rushing touchdown is breaking news. The ‘how’ he ran a rushing touchdown is what changed the conversation. Arch was fast, elusive and athletic. Not something that comes to mind when discussing the Mannings.

Arch’s first full season as the Texas starting QB did not match the hype surrounding the younger Manning. 2,942 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to seven interceptions on 61% completion percentage was not the result many expected to see. Lower production games bookended by quality performances led to an inconsistent opinion of Arch going into the 2026 NFL Draft.

The eventual NFL decision from Arch comes as no surprise to anyone paying attention to the discourse from the beginning. The writing was always on the wall. The Arch decision was not going to come down to entering as soon as the eligibility policy allowed him to do so.

Traditionally, players who declare early do so for specific reasons. Sometimes, they’ve played so well that going back to school doesn’t make sense based on their draft projection. It’s rare for a projected top 20 pick to return. The other large factor is the financial situation. Many players feel compelled to save their family.

Arch is not where he or his family want him to be when he makes that decision from a developmental standpoint. There is also no reality where Arch needs to save his family from a less-than-ideal financial situation. His Grandfather and two uncles are all famous NFL quarterbacks. Two of which are in the Hall of Fame. Arch’s father Cooper would have likely followed in those footsteps had it not been for a grave medical diagnosis that ended his football career.

The Manning family left clues about his decision

When Arch committed to Texas the family supported that decision based on the why. Arch believed playing for Texas and under Steve Sarkisian was the best decision for his development. He committed to Texas understanding that Quinn Ewers would be ahead of him. Development and what Texas could do for his progression is what drew him to Texas.

Prior to the 2025 regular season, there seemed to be a difference of opinion in the established plan. In August according to CBS Sports, Archie Manning warned NFL teams against tanking for Arch. Archie was somewhat adamant about Arch’s immediate future.

“Arch isn’t going to do that,” Archie Manning told Texas Monthly on the chances of declaring early. “He’ll be at Texas” Archie added.

That idea was challenged two weeks later when Arch seemingly discarded the idea. According to Yahoo Sports, Arch pushed back on his grandfather’s claim. “Yeah, I don’t know where he got that from,” Arch said. “He texted me and apologized for that. I’m really just taking it day by day right now.”

The owner of one of the most quarterback starved teams in the NFL gave more confirmation that Arch likely would not be available. Jimmy Haslem, owner of the Cleveland Browns, is friend of the Manning family. A quarterback needy owner who knows the family saying it won’t happen should’ve carried more weight.

“I think if you know the Manning family, I would bet that, and I don’t know Arch at all, I would bet he stays in college two years” Haslem said via ESPN. “So, I don’t even really think that’s worth discussing.”

Comments from the immediate family were also consistent yet cast aside in the larger conversation.  Uncle Peyton, who describes himself as a resource for Arch, commented about his nephew’s Texas decision in August on an episode of Bussin’ with the Boys.

“I’m proud of Arch for staying there,” Peyton said. “Most kids would probably transfer in that setting, but he stayed there. He likes playing for Steve Sarkisian, he likes the system. And when he does get in there, he’s going to benefit from kind of having a little continuity in the system.”

Arch’s father, Cooper Manning has been as reserved about his son’s future as Arch has. Often warning against too much praise too soon. As well as putting a premium on humility and enjoying the college football process. Encouraging his son to embrace the tough games and media scrutiny while not worrying about factors that don’t contribute to his development, like NIL deals and social media commentary.

On Tuesday, Cooper confirmed Arch’s 2026 status in a very Manning-like text to ESPN. “Arch is playing football at Texas next year.” According to Yahoo Sports, Texas officials expected this decision. According to those officials, Arch wants to be the No. 1 pick when he does enter the draft. An idea that the Manning’s seemed to believe is tied to reps, games, experience and development.

Archie Manning finished his Ole Miss career with 28 starts. Peyton Manning finished his Tennessee career with 45 starts. Eli Manning finished his Ole Miss career with 43 starts. Arch Manning to date has 13 starts and 23 games played. There was a plan with a logic built on the backs of three relatives with substantial NFL careers. There is no urgency for Arch to go pro and therefore nothing significant to suggest the 2026 NFL Draft was ever a realistic idea.

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Editorial Team